Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Week 2 matchup between the Texans and Browns is a massive mismatch on paper. The Texans entered the season with the shortest odds to finish with the worst record in football, while the Browns are favored to make a trip to the postseason for the second-straight year.
That said, anything can happen on an NFL Sunday. That’s one of the reasons why it’s the most popular sport in America.
Let’s dive into this matchup.
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns Week 2 Odds
Date/Time: September 19, 1:00 p.m. ET
Arena: FirstEnergy Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Opening odds: Browns -12.5 | O/U 48.0
Latest Texans-Browns odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Browns -12.5
- Total: 48.0
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Texans vs. Browns
The advance spread on this game had the Browns favored by 13 points, but the Texans were better than expected last week. They thumped the Jaguars at home, jumping out to a 34-7 lead before ultimately winning by a score of 37-21. Their performance was legit too, racking up 449 yards of total offense. The Texans are still expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but they might not be a complete pushover.
The odds actually dipped down to Browns -11.5 for a slight period, but that number was quickly gobbled up. The Browns have received 65% of the spread bets and 89% of the spread dollars, so they’ve received the vast majority of the betting interest early in the week.
Quarterback analysis – Tyrod Taylor vs. Baker Mayfield
Tyrod Taylor is simply a bridge quarterback at this point in his career. He’s just keeping the spot warm for the Texans until they find a new “quarterback of the future,” which is a role that Taylor is familiar with. He did the same thing for the Chargers and Browns in the past before ceding the job to Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield.
The Texans will likely hand the reigns to rookie third-rounder Davis Mills at some point this season, but Taylor is the QB for the time being. He was brilliant last week vs. the Jaguars, finishing with 291 yards and two touchdowns through the air and adding 40 yards on the ground.
Taylor may not be good enough for any team to commit to him long-term, but he’s more than good enough for bettors. He owns a 27-18-3 record against the spread, good for a +15.4% return on investment. He’s also been great as an underdog, posting a record of 9-3-2 ATS when getting at least 3.5 points.
Speaking of Mayfield, he’s entering his third full season as the Browns’ starter, and he played some of the best football of his career down the stretch last year. He averaged 8.54 adjusted yards per attempt over his final six regular-season games, and he racked up 11 touchdown passes with just one interception.
He carried that success into his first game of the new year, nearly engineering a road upset vs. the Chiefs. The team ultimately came up just short, but Mayfield averaged an impressive 9.86 yards per attempt. He did throw one interception and no touchdowns, but that pick came late in the game while he was being tackled. The zero touchdowns also didn’t really matter since the Browns still racked up 29 points.
However, Mayfield is still building his reputation for bettors. He’s posted a dismal 19-26-1 ATS record as a starter, including a mark of 9-14-1 as a favorite. Even though his team was better last year, Mayfield was still just 6-10 ATS during the regular season.
Latest Texans betting news & info
Can the Texans do some barking like a dog all season? Anything is possible. In addition to Taylor being a wildly profitable quarterback against the spread, betting large underdogs, in general, has historically been a nice strategy. Underdogs of between 10 and 14 points have posted a record of 274-234-11 since 2004, which is good for a return on investment of +4.0%. That may not sound like a big number, but a $100 bettor would be up over $2,000 if they took every dog of 10-to-14 points over that time frame.
The trend makes some sense when you think about it. No one wants anything to do with teams like the Texans, so they will almost assuredly get the minority of the bets each week. In other words, when teams like the Texans win, the sportsbooks win.
Latest Browns betting news & info
The Browns were able to cover the spread last week vs. the Chiefs, despite the fact that they were without Odell Beckham Jr. He’s their most explosive playmaker at wide receiver, so the Browns could’ve used him in a high-scoring affair. Head coach Kevin Stefanski said that a Week 2 return is possible, which would be a nice boost for their offense.
Still, the Browns are built around their dynamic running game. They have one of the best one-two punches in the league at running back with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who combined for 116 yards on just 21 carries last week. They should be able to establish both players more in a game that they are expected to control.
Still, that might not be a death blow for the Texans. They were 4-2 against the spread last year against teams who averaged at least 125 rushing yards per game. That includes a two-point loss vs. the Browns despite being 7.5-point home underdogs.
Eagles vs. Falcons betting picks – NFL Week 1
The Texans are going to eventually blow things up. They will likely bench Taylor, trade away guys like Brandin Cooks and David Johnson, and shift their focus towards playing for a draft pick. That said, they’re not at that point quite yet. This line is set like the Texans are going to be a dumpster fire, and I’m not sure that’s the case. Their roster certainly isn’t good, but I’m not sure they deserve to be getting nearly two full touchdowns vs. the Browns.
The Browns are a team on the rise, but they still have to prove that they know how to take care of business in this situation. Mayfield has never been favored by more than 11 points, and his track record as a favorite is questionable, to begin with.
I definitely don’t feel great about siding with the Texans, but I think they’re the correct side.
Here are our betting picks for Eagles vs. Falcons in Week 1.
FTNBets best bets
- Texans +12.5
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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