SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 17

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS multiplier contests. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview, recommended plays at each position as well as some GPP game stacks and best secondary correlations.

Week 16 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

Congrats to darcmaniluk for winning last week’s Red Zone GPP and gsd4 for taking down the Gunslinger. This was only the second time this season that GPP-winning scores exceeded 300 total points (last time was in Week 5). Rather interesting to me that Rex Burkhead (1.9x, 56.81 SDP) was mentioned in my article as just an afterthought yet he came in at nearly 20% in the Red Zone because of his multiplier and matchup against the Chargers’ run defense. It was the perfect storm for Burkhead with that rare positive game script but it may line up for him to be bad chalk in Week 17. The 1.59x average team multiplier for darcmaniluk was the highest of the season, fueled by Burkhead, Braxton Berrios and a 2x Josh Johnson.

Here are the week-by-week stats of Red Zone GPP winners this season:

Week 17 Preview

Poor weather across the country is this week’s primary theme, but the secondary theme should be “Take a Stand.” With a whopping 14 games on the slate and a high likelihood that many of them underwhelm, we really need to have a bit of gumption to weed those games out or have just have lighter exposure to them. I’d also advise against full game-stacking if you’re only playing a few lineups. As you dive into this article, you’ll notice a few ballsy stands against chalky plays I’m taking – which is easier to do on such a massive slate with a multitude of options. 

In the three games with Vegas totals under 40 points (NYG-CHI, MIA-TEN, CAR-NO), I am interested in just one specific option in each of them – David Montgomery, Jaylen Waddle and Alvin Kamara. I’m a fan of the one game with a total over 50 (ARI-DAL), but keep in mind, so is everyone else. We should assume that Dak Prescott (1.15x), CeeDee Lamb (1.3x), Christian Kirk (1.35x) and possibly Zach Ertz (1.4x) to be popular, which makes every other offensive player on this slate a viable alternative at lower roster rates. 

Don’t be afraid to mix in the good chalk (Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp) despite no multiplier bonuses. If you have the time this weekend, try to project the scores and flows for each game to help you sort through the multitude of options so you can focus on the games that have a realistic shot at shooting out and helping you take down a GPP.

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Quarterbacks

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

This will be just his second career start, but Lance will be a popular play across the industry. His high multiplier stands out here, as does San Francisco’s 28.5 implied total, which is one of the highest on the slate. The Niners are 12.5-point favorites and will be expected to be run-heavy against a Houston Texans team that gets gashed on the ground. That includes Lance, who posted a 16-89-0 rushing line in his lone career start. We can lock Lance in, in cash, without needing to pair him with anyone.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys/Cardinals game boasts the highest combined total (51.5) on the slate, and our attention is pulled in this direction with the game being played in the dome and not affected by bad weather. Though Arizona’s pass defense ranks fifth per DVOA, a shootout may brew here, and Prescott could easily end up with a 300-3 day. He has the highest upside among the lower-multiplier signal-callers.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Hurts likely won’t run in three ground scores like he did last time he faced Washington. But his rushing floor is undeniable, and we still get a 20% bonus on his fantasy points. Murray will be overlooked given how big the slate is, how solid the Cowboys’ run defense has played and the fact that he has thrown for multiplier scores just once since Week 7. He does have at least 55 rushing yards in each of his last three games and will be forced to air it out to keep up with Dallas. 

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

On a large slate such as this one, we should expect Stafford to fall in under 10% in the Red Zone GPP as the masses focus on Lance and other alternatives. We simply cannot forget how badly Joe Burrow manhandled Baltimore’s defense last week and that their secondary is utterly ravaged. The Ravens allow a league-high 280.5 passing yards per game. It is clear that the way to attack this defense is through the air and we should assume that will be head coach Sean McVay’s game plan on Sunday.

Favorite Plays: Trey Lance, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – Should be 25%-plus even on this big slate and no scoring bonus. If it’s even possible, expect an even larger workload with Carson Wentz potentially out and Sam Ehlinger making his first start. Averaging 26.3 base points in his last 12 games.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – Might be snowing and perhaps a heavy run game for the Bills who are favored by more than two touchdowns. Perfect games script for Singletary who has 34 carries in his last two games (Zack Moss and Matt Breida: four carries combined). 

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Twenty carries for the Bucs last week and has the most favorable matchup of any running back on the slate. Jets are dead last in SuperDraft points allowed to RBs (31.7) with the Seahawks second worst (26.5). Should be at least 15% on this slate and has multiple-touchdown upside.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears – A whopping 30 touches with Nick Foles under center as he produced 20.1 base points. A similar workload in an ugly matchup with the Giants is expected here as DMont is one of the best all-around plays on the slate. In the four starts this season with Andy Dalton under center, Montgomery had two big games (20.3, 24.1 SDP) and two stinkers (7.2, 8.9). In that latest start with Dalton though (vs. ARI), Montgomery caught eight-of-nine targets.

Fade: Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams – Will get some love based on recent performances, workload expectations and a high multiplier. But the Rams’ likely plan of attack will be an aerial one and this isn’t a high ceiling spot for Sony.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks – Somehow getting overlooked in most projection systems I’ve seen this week but I’m on board. Even if Alex Collins suits up, I’d expect Penny to get the lion’s share of carries and it helps that Detroit allows the third-most SuperDraft points to the position (25.6). Impressive rushing lines of 17-135-1 and 16-137-2 in his last two games.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – Have a strange feeling that Kamara blows up at a roster rate under 5% on this slate. Just so many viable options at the position and Kamara appeared disinterested in Monday night’s drubbing. Taysom Hill returning does stunt Kamara’s rush TD upside. Keep an eye on the status of Mark Ingram (knee) as his absence makes Kamara an even more intriguing play.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – This play mostly for large-field GPPs and only if James Conner is out again (which seems likely at this point). Edmonds is dealing with some back soreness but should be ready to suit up on Sunday and play a heavy role in the offense. He dropped a 16-56-1 rushing line and 8-71-0 receiving last week.

Favorite Plays: Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Alvin Kamara, Rashaad Penny
Fades: Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, D’Andre Swift (light workload expectations)

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Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams – Going for the record for most receiving yards ever, and the matchup is as spicy as it gets. If only making one lineup, he should be on it. 

Possible GPP Fade: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – Last week’s monster outing is fresh in everyone’s memories and no adjustment on a juicy multiplier will make him hard to resist. Even with temperatures around 30 degrees and a stout Kansas City secondary. Though the multiplier and recent performances makes it feel like we should lock him in, we have to remember that this offense still boasts Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon and nothing in life (nor fantasy football) is guaranteed. More likely to post a stinker than surpass 15 base points this week.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers – We have to give Allen a pass for last week’s atrocities and trot him back out there against the Broncos with the 20% scoring bonus. Since Week 8, Allen is fifth among wideouts in targets (87) and third in receptions (57).

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – Will be overlooked on this slate after two subpar outings (3-32-0, 3-40-1), but Renfrow amassed three consecutive 100-yard receiving days between Weeks 12 and 14. The Colts’ run defense is a tough customer, but their secondary has allowed the second-most (29) TD receptions.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins – Troubling weather and a low Vegas total (under 40) likely won’t keep folks off the low-aDOT stud rookie with a great multiplier. No reason to game stack this one but we should consider him as a one-off.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – I believe he bounces back in this cake matchup against a paltry Lions’ pass defense that should get easily shredded. Weather won’t be ideal with a high chance of rain, but I foresee him winning his battles in the open field with ease and racking up at least six receptions. Best path in this game is to just play Rashaad Penny, but I’d sprinkle a little Lockett in if you’re MME’ing.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – The usual fallback when folks are looking for a pairing partner with Dak Prescott, since he’s the primary slot man. Note that Lamb still lines up on the perimeter for over 50% of snaps and will face weak link cornerback Marco Wilson on a chunk of plays. Nevertheless, a GPP play because of the Cowboys’ depth with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

Fade: A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans – This feels odd to type since Brown is one of the league’s most dynamic receivers, sees a hefty target share and is tough for opposing corners to stop. Brown missed Thursday’s practice dealing with a calf injury and this could be taken as an omen. We’ve seen Brown leave games early this season, primarily when he is chalk. There are just way too many options on this slate to get too much exposure to one receiver in a tough game environment with a low total and against stout cornerbacks. This one may come back to bite me but I’m taking the stand.

Other to Consider in GPP/MME:

• Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (1.05x)
• Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (1.1x)
• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (1.3x)
• Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (1.3x)
• Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (1.4x)
• Braxton Berrios, New York Jets (1.7x)

Favorite Plays: Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Tyler Lockett, Robby Anderson

Tight Ends

It should be fairly simple to figure out who the majority of SuperDrafters are playing this week:

• Dallas Goedert – 1.3x
• George Kittle – 1.2x
• Mark Andrews – 1.1x
• Dawson Knox – 1.45x

Any other tight end will likely fall under 10% rostered on this slate as the majority of folks gravitate to these guys. With Kittle, there is a bit of that element of the unknown with Trey Lance under center. But that won’t stop him from being a popular play because he’s the most obvious stacking partner with an uber-chalky Lance. Big GPP upside though in this matchup against Texans’ linebacker Christian Kirksey and anyone else attempting to guard him. Mark Andrews’ smashing set of box scores these last few games will lead many to using him in Stafford-Kupp stacks regardless of who Baltimore’s QB is on Sunday. I do feel a bit more comfortable with Andrews than Kittle. 

Travis Kelce becomes a sneaky good play by default as I don’t believe more than 10% of the Red Zone GPP field will roster him after seeing how poorly Tyreek Hill fared after his bout with COVID-19. Kelce has had more time to recover, should have easier matchups than Hill and – hear me out – I believe he’s threatened by all the love and attention Mark Andrews is getting as football’s new favorite tight end and that he will do everything he can to have a monstrous statement game.

Tyler Higbee is a gut feel in MME Stafford-Kupp-Andrews stacks while Foster Moreau’s multiplier should garner slight consideration in a matchup against a Colts’ defense that allows the third-most SuperDraft points per game (13.9) to the position. Moreau now has back-to-back outings with at least four receptions and 60 receiving yards. Let’s not forget about Rob Gronkowski who might be a forgotten man on this slate after going bust-o last week. Include him in your player pool if building multiple lineups.

Favorite Plays: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Foster Moreau, Tyler Higbee (MME only, under 10% exposure)

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Favorite Game Stacks

1. Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
3. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
4. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Single stacks: Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Favorite Secondary Correlations

1. Jonathan Taylor, IND (1x) + Hunter Renfrow, LV (1.35x)
2. Cooper Kupp, LAR (1x) + Mark Andrews, BAL (1.1x)
3. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (1.3x) + Chase Edmonds, ARI (1.35x)
4. Joe Mixon, CIN (1.25x) + Travis Kelce, KC (1x)
5. Alvin Kamara, NO (1.1x) + Robby Anderson, CAR (1.65x)
6. Rashaad Penny, SEA (1.3x) + Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (1.4x)
7. Ronald Jones, TB (1.3x) + Antonio Brown, TB (1.25x)
8. Devin Singletary, BUF (1.55x) + Stefon Diggs, BUF (1.2x)
9. Keenan Allen, LAC (1.2x) + Austin Ekeler, LAC (1.2x)
10. Sneaky: D’Onta Foreman, TEN (1.6x) + Jaylen Waddle, MIA (1.4x)

I’ll see you Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET as I join host Zac Graham for the SuperDraft Sunday Study livestream.