Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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Similar to what has been provided in past weeks, here are three plays I will anchor my SuperDraft DFS lineups around. While there are typically five plays, I will provide three plays per week and add an “others to consider” section full of the players who round out the vast majority of my player pool.
This gives you the ability to lock in the key three and fill in around it. Below are my top three options for Week 13’s Sunday main slate.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ SEA)
Score multiplier: 1.3x
Considering he’s logged 27 and 32 touches over his last two weeks, it’s hard to find many running backs more involved than Elijah Mitchell right now, if any. His uptick in receiving work has been noticeable as well, having posted target shares of 12% and 23% over the last two weeks.
While the Seahawks were once a matchup for running backs to fear, that simply isn’t the case in 2021. They get run on more than any team in the entire NFL (350 attempts) and rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed and yards after contact allowed. With the Niners posting the second-highest rushing rate in the entire NFL, Mitchell checks in as my favorite option of the week at the running back position.
Others to consider: Jonathan Taylor (1x), David Montgomery (1.15x), Leonard Fournette (1.2x), Joe Mixon (1.2x), Jamaal Williams (1.35x), Antonio Gibson (1.4x),
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. BAL)
Score multiplier: 1.45x
Chase Claypool played through turf toe in Weeks 11 and 12, but he carries no injury designation heading into Week 13 and steps into a matchup that he should be able to exploit all afternoon. Typically a big-play receiver, Claypool’s 12.55-yard aDOT and 14.1 yards per catch lead the Steelers’ receivers. The Ravens have struggled in every facet against the pass this season, but none more than the big plays. Having allowed the most receptions of 20-plus and 40-plus yards in the entire NFL this season, this scripts as a perfect game for Claypool to have an absolute field day Sunday.
Others to consider: Justin Jefferson (1.15x), Mike Evans (1.35x), Terry McLaurin (1.4x), Chris Godwin (1.4x), Diontae Johnson (1.4x), Darnell Mooney (1.45x), Van Jefferson (1.65x), DeSean Jackson (1.75x)
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Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ ATL)
Score multiplier: 1.2x
Many, including myself, underestimated the impact Rob Gronkowski would have upon returning to this passing attack. In his Week 12 return, he saw 26.5% of the targets, 54.4% of the receiving yards and 28% of the receptions. If that’s not nearly a monopoly, I don’t know what is. This shouldn’t be an expectation on a week-to-week basis, but it’s worth following how involved he is when Antonio Brown is out of the lineup.
The Falcons have been a stingier team against tight ends, but they haven’t faced an offense quite like the Bucs, making Gronk a preferred target with his 1.2x score multiplier.
Others to consider: George Kittle (1.15x), Gerald Everett (1.6x), Foster Moreau (1.75x)
