First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
The big game is almost here, as we are three days away from Super Bowl LIX and the end of the 2024-2025 NFL season. The Chiefs will be chasing history Sunday, with their eyes set on the coveted three-peat. They’re going back to where it all began, facing the Eagles in a Super Bowl LVII rematch. On the other side, Philadelphia will be looking for redemption, making their second Super Bowl appearance in three seasons.
There are many different ways to bet on the Super Bowl, but two props stand out to me.
Top Props for Super Bowl LIX
Jake Elliott Over 6.5 Kicking Points
(-130, Bet365)
Jake Elliott has at least 7 kicking points in 14 of 20 (70%) games overall, including each of the last six, averaging 7.9 kicking points per game. He has yet to miss this line in the postseason, scoring 10, 10 and 7 kicking points over his last three games. Although he just barely got over this mark against the Commanders in the Conference Championships, Elliott didn’t convert a single field goal, scoring all seven kicking points through extra points. With a “1.5 made field goals” prop line and a “2.5 made extra points” line, both juiced to the over, I expect Elliott to stay hot in the Super Bowl and exceed 6.5 kicking points for a seventh consecutive game.
Samaje Perine Over 6.5 Receiving Yards
(-120, BetMGM)
Samaje Perine has been the clear No. 3 back with both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco available, but he’s still maintained a role on passing downs, converting a critical first down on a 17-yard reception to ice the game against Buffalo in the AFC Conference Championship. On the season, including the playoffs, Perine has at least 8 receiving yards in 16 of 19 games (84.2%), running a route on 33.6% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks, averaging 1.5 grabs on 1.9 targets for 16.5 yards. The Chiefs may opt to utilize a pass-catching back like Perine more than usual in the Super Bowl, likely struggling on the ground, facing an Eagles defense that ended the regular season ranked second overall in DVOA against the rush (-23.8%), allowing the seventh-fewest carries (19.6) and rushing yards (79.8) to opposing backfields.
