NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Tyler Loechner and Josh Larky continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts, and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Washington Commanders
Tyler and Josh will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” then expand upon their picks with more detailed reasoning in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Larky: Jahan Dotson
Loechner: J.D. McKissic
Biggest Bust
Larky: Antonio Gibson
Loechner: Antonio Gibson
Boldest Bet
Larky: Terry McLaurin outscores Diontae Johnson
Loechner: Terry McLaurin finishes as a fantasy WR1
The Explanation
Sleepers
Larky: Jahan Dotson
The Commanders selected Dotson at pick 16 in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he was considered a reach by many, myself included. He’s small, he’s fast but not “super-fast” — often damning for exceptionally small WRs — and he was a fpir-year player in college rather than coming out early. I do not expect Dotson to produce much as a rookie, and I’d say there’s probably a 65% to 70% chance he just wastes away on your bench in fantasy. However, that’s the case with every late-round pick in redraft.
Dotson does have the upside provided from the draft capital, and through his ability to separate and win at all areas of the field. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were two players I, and many others, thought were taken too early in the NFL Draft, and both played well as rookies. In 2020, Brandon Aiyuk was a complete reach in Round 1 by the 49ers, until he had one of the greatest half seasons of any WR in 2020. I’m not counting Dotson completely out, as the profile has a lot of Tyler Lockett and T.Y. Hilton to it. If I’m taking a WR very late, someone with his draft capital is historically a good bet to make.
Loechner: J.D. McKissic
McKissic almost got away from Washington, but he ultimately re-signed with the team and is poised to be their pass-catching specialist once again in 2022.
He finished last year as the RB33 despite playing only 11 games. If he played all year, his per-game pace was good enough to finish as the RB22.
But right now, McKissic is coming off draft boards as the RB57! Yes, the Commanders still have Gibson and they drafted Brian Robinson, but neither of those players will be a serious threat to McKissic on passing downs, which is what we’re really interested in here anyway. Gibson caught 42 passes last year in 17 games; McKissic had 43 in 11.
McKissic’s 4.8 targets per game last year were seventh most among RBs. And he’s significantly better than Nyheim Hines, who averaged 3.4 targets per game with Carson Wentz last season. McKissic is not a league-winner type of pick, but he’s a solid end-of-bench stash who will absolutely beat his ADP — and handily.
Busts
Larky: Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson should be off your draft boards as long as he continues to go in Round 5 or 6 of fantasy drafts. J.D. McKissic is clearly the preferred third-down back. Rookie Brian Robinson was Alabama’s bell cow in 2021, with 1,700 total yards, and he’s also nearly 225 pounds. The Commanders said they took Brian Robinson in the third round because Gibson had failed to stay healthy each of his first two seasons. I expect Robinson to take at least 5 touches per game away from Gibson, and McKissic should steal 3-5 targets per game himself. Gibson is officially two injuries away from being a true fantasy difference-maker, and I’m completely fine having zero exposure to him in fantasy for 2022.
Loechner: Antonio Gibson
Gibson finished last season with 229.1 fantasy points, good for a top-10 finish among RBs in PPR leagues. But as noted above, McKissic was retained for 2022, which puts a stopper on Gibson as a locked-in top 10 — or even top-five — fantasy RB.
Then the team spent the No. 98 pick — a third-rounder — on RB Brian Robinson. Day 2 draft capital is huge for running backs, and this is really bad news for Gibson’s fantasy value. He’s expected to still be “the guy” — but for how long? Gibson was also heavily supported last year by 17 rush attempts from inside the 5 — fifth-most in the NFL. But Robinson is just as big as Gibson (1 inch shorter, 5 pounds heavier). Does he eat into those valuable carries?
If McKissic ended up signing with Buffalo (and Washington didn’t draft another RB), Gibson would be one of the most-hyped players of the offseason, and for good reason. Instead, we ended up with a crowded backfield and a coaching staff essentially telling us (through their actions) they don’t want Gibson to have a huge role.
Gibson is a risky fantasy RB2 now. He should be perfectly fine to start the season, but if Robinson earns reps, Gibson’s value tanks.
Bets
Larky: Terry McLaurin Outscores Diontae Johnson
Tyler started writing his part of this article a few hours before I did, so he stole my WR1 idea for “Biggest Bet” but it’s totally fine and we are still friends and I definitely never sent him an angry email. Back to McLaurin. After a 2020 season that saw the Commanders lower his target depth considerably from his 2019 rookie season, the 2021 campaign saw his average depth of target return to elite levels for a team’s WR1. He finished 2021 fourth in the NFL in total air yards, and 3rd in team air yard’s share, gobbling up over 42% of Heinicke’s intended air yards. He has legitimate 4.35 speed, and had 7 TDs in only 14 games as a rookie.
While not usually sticky year-to-year, Wentz was one of the NFL’s best deep ball passers in 2021, while Heinicke was one of the five worst starters in this area. If Wentz can carry over his accuracy from 2021, paired with McLaurin’s 2019/2021 aDOT, 10 TDs is well within reach. And if McLaurin has roughly 10 TDs in 2022… well, check out Tyler’s blurb below.
Loechner: Terry McLaurin Finishes as a Fantasy WR1
Yeah, Carson Wentz is not good. But neither is Taylor Heinicke — and Wentz is almost certainly an upgrade for Terry McLaurin. And Wentz was good enough to lead Michael Pittman to a top-15 finish among WRs last year with the Colts. That offense revolved around the run game and a single WR. Sounds very familiar to what we might see in Washington this year.
McLaurin is uber-talented but kissed with the Allen Robinson curse: Horrible QB play. He pops in advanced metrics (his 42.4% air yards market share last year was third in the NFL behind Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown) and certainly passes the eye test. If Wentz can support Pittman to a top-15 finish, I have faith McLaurin can produce top-12 numbers.
It’s not a slam-dunk bet — McLaurin is coming off boards as the WR21, and he finished as the WR25 last year with just over 200 PPR points — but an upgrade at QB can work wonders for a player this talented.
