Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Daniel Kelley and Jeremy Popielarz continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The New Orleans Saints.
Daniel and Jeremy will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Kelley: Mark Ingram
Popielarz: Abram Smith
Biggest Bust
Kelley: Michael Thomas
Popielarz: Michael Thomas
Boldest bet
Kelley: No Saints Player Puts Up Fantasy-Starter Numbers
Popielarz: Chris Olave is the Top Fantasy WR in New Orleans
The Explanation
Sleeper
Kelley: Mark Ingram
No, 32-year-old Mark Ingram isn’t going to be a fantasy star this year. This isn’t 2017. But he’s the only name we really care about in this backfield depth chart (unless you believe in Abram Smith, below) behind Alvin Kamara, who presents his own availability concerns (more on that below). Ingram had double-digit carries in three straight active games after joining the Saints in midseason last year, including being the RB8 in Weeks 10-11. If Kamara misses any time, Ingram should be at least flex-worthy in those weeks. (Full disclosure: I fully expect the Saints to add another veteran running back before the season — they’ve already been looking at David Johnson — and at that time, whoever that veteran is likely replaces Ingram in this space.)
Popielarz: Abram Smith
Abram Smith is a true darkhorse to lead this backfield in 2022. With a possible suspension looming for Alvin Kamara, there would be an open competition for the lead role out of the backfield between Smith, Mark Ingram and Tony Jones. Last season, Jones had plenty of opportunities to carve out a decent role and it never happened, so it’s hard to imagine him seizing the opportunity in 2022. That leaves Ingram and Smith, and Ingram is 32 and has been on three teams in the last 18 months.
I trust enough in the undrafted Smith’s talent to beat Ingram out in this situation. After 12 total carries in his first three years in college (he served as a linebacker in 2020 before converting back to running back), Smith exploded in his senior year at Baylor in 2021, producing 1,601 yards on the ground, fourth in the NCAA and first in the Big 12. He averaged 6.2 yards per attempt (not bad for a linebacker) and scored 12 touchdowns. With only the underwhelming Jones and the over-the-hill Ingram to beat out, Smith could lead this backfield for however long Kamara might be suspended and carve out a solid secondary role when the starter is around. Even the No. 2 role in this backfield can be productive — we’ve seen the Saints produce two RB1s as recently as 2017.
Bust
Kelley: Michael Thomas
Cooper Kupp was otherworldly in 2021. But set his season aside, and no receiver has topped what Michael Thomas did in 2019 — in fact, no one has come within 15 points of what he did — since 2015. His 149 receptions that year were the all-time record, and among receivers with at least 75 targets, the only person who has ever caught a higher percentage of his targets than Thomas’ 80.5% in 2019 was … Michael Thomas in 2018, when he caught 85.0%. He was really damn good, is what I’m saying.
That was also two years ago, in a better offense with a better quarterback, with a better head coach, with a worse defense. And in the two years since, Thomas has played seven games and totaled 438 scoreless yards. He’s 29 now, still not participating in offseason workouts, and has a team that doesn’t project for anything like the third-in-the-league 458 points New Orleans put up in 2019. Obviously, all of these red flags are baked into Thomas’ ADP, as he’s currently going as a mid-range WR3 in the FTN Fantasy ADP and ranked 31st in the FTN Fantasy rankings, but the floor is even lower. With more target competition, a less athletic Thomas, no Drew Brees and no Sean Payton, I’m not touching him in 2022.
Popielarz: Michael Thomas
It’s been a year and a half since we’ve seen Michael Thomas play an NFL snap and two years since he played a full season. Before that, though, he opened his career with four 1,000-yard seasons in a row, finishing as the WR7, WR6, WR6 and WR1 in four straight years. With Jameis Winston — who produced multiple WR1s in his career with the Buccaneers — at the helm, there’s some optimism that Thomas can recall his heyday in 2022. But I’m betting against it, in part due to the fact that the Saints suddenly have a wealth of talent in the receiver room. This offseason the team added Chris Olave in the draft and picked up slot wizard Jarvis Landry in free agency. Those two will limit Thomas’ ceiling, and that’s even before we consider his health.
Is he going to be the Michael Thomas of 2019, or will he still be recovering? It’s more likely that the now-29-year-old won’t be able to play at the same level he reached more than two years ago. Drew Brees is gone, and so is Sean Payton. I’m expecting him to finish outside the top-24 receivers in 2022.
Bet
Kelley: No Saints Player Puts Up Fantasy-Starter Numbers
For the purposes here, we’re defining “fantasy-starter numbers” as finishing in the top 12 at quarterback or tight end or top 24 at running back or wide receiver in PPR leagues. And there’s a real chance everyone on the Saints comes up short. For starters, this team is not the Saints we got used to throughout the 2010s, one built to dominate on offense and just hope to put up more points than the defense allows. No, this team is built on the defensive side, with the defensive line (No. 3), linebackers (No. 7) and secondary (No. 6) all ranking in the top quarter of teams in our NFL roster rankings. A defense that strong just isn’t going to require an offense to get into many shootouts.
So let’s just look at the positions:
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston is recovering from a Week 7 torn ACL and reportedly had a “visible limp” during OTAs. We can still expect him to be ready for Week 1 as of now, but then it’s worth noting that he was only QB17 on a per-game basis before getting hurt last year, and that’s without even counting the game he left early.
- Running back: Obviously, Alvin Kamara is the clear place for this prediction to go wrong. But we already know he’s dealing with felony battery charges that could result in a suspension at some point. There’s a chance any suspension doesn’t take place until after the court proceedings have been resolved, but there’s also a real chance you’re losing your RB1 for a chunk of the season. And then there’s the efficiency — Kamara wasn’t anywhere near his peak in 2021. He had a career-low 3.7 yards per carry, a career-low 4 rushing touchdowns and a career-low 5.2 targets per game. He turns 27 in July. There’s huge off-a-cliff potential here, even if he is around all season, which is no guarantee.
- Wide receiver: The Saints have a much better receiver room than last year’s crew that was headed up by Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith. Callaway and Smith are still around, but they’re now fourth and fifth on the depth chart behind Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. But all three come with warning signs — we addressed Thomas’ above. Landry put up career-lows across the board in 2021 and turns 30 in November. And Olave is a very attractive rookie but promises next to nothing after the catch and might not be able to put up chunk plays. Add it all up and consider that they’re all fighting for the same low total of touches, and there’s no top-24 receiver here.
- Tight end: The “Taysom Hill, quarterback” experiment appears to be over, and he’ll be working exclusively as a tight end in 2022, alongside the 2021 tandem of Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson. And maybe Hill can sneak into some relevance with his gadget-y skills, getting carries, maybe even throwing a few passes, but the idea anyone here could make it into the top 12 is pretty impossible to consider.
Popielarz: Chris Olave is the Top Fantasy WR in New Orleans
Chris Olave was drafted out of Ohio State this season 11th overall by the Saints, in large part due to his field-stretching ability. He was arguably the best downfield threat in this year’s draft class. Over his four-year career at Ohio State, he showed time and time again the ability to get open deep on a variety of routes. This is only reinforced by his aDOT of 15.5 yards for his career, and he showed great speed at the combine with a 4.39-second 40 time. This only helps cement his abilities to stretch the field at the NFL level. Add in his 62.5% contest catch-win percentage from last season and he has a chance to become one of the best deep threats in the game. This ability is getting paired with a quarterback in Jameis Winston, who has all the arm strength needed to take the top off the defense. We have seen Brandin Cooks finish as a top-12 wide receiver in a Pete Carmichael offense in large part due to his explosive plays. These explosive plays are something Olave can reproduce, as he has a very similar skill set to Cooks’. Add in Thomas not being back to his old self and we could see Olave rise to the top of this depth chart in short order.
