Single-Entry NFL DFS Lineup Review for Week 12

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week.

The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs. 

Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance. 

This was an ugly week for me, but more importantly, it caused me to question the pay-down at running back strategy. Let’s dive back into the data. We’re looking at the average performance of the top five RBs vs the top five wide receivers each week. Week 8 is the cutoff I’m using, since that’s when I first wrote about the strategy.

Weeks 4-8 (using FantasyPros PPR historical results):

• Top 5 RB median: 28.8
• Top 5 RB mean: 28.2
   
• Top 5 WR median: 31.4
• Top 5 WR mean: 31.7

In the past four weeks, we’ve seen a big difference. Since then:

• Top 5 RB median: 27.7
• Top 5 RB mean: 30.5
   
• Top 5 WR median: 26.3
• Top 5 WR mean: 26.9

A couple things here – first, note that the RB ceiling mean is inflated by a five-touchdown performance (Jonathan Taylor) and two four-TD performances (Austin Ekeler and Leonard Fournette). Second, the flip-flopping is all about the WR decline, not a rising RB ceiling. Overall now:

• Top 5 RB median: 29.2
• Top 5 RB mean: 28.4
   
• Top 5 WR median: 29.6
• Top 5 WR mean: 29.6

So – RBs or WRs?

To be honest, I was expecting the last four weeks to have swung the numbers back in RBs’ favor. One way to view these overall numbers would be to say there’s no significant difference. However, I think the bigger takeaway is that RBs have benefitted from extremely unlikely TD variance in the past couple of weeks and trail WR ceilings anyway. I particularly like the idea of continuing to hammer WRs if people begin to chase RB ceilings.

Lastly, it’s important to remember that this analysis is only half of the equation. We also need to know how the two compare in predictability and if predictability/ceiling dynamics change at different price points. I’m excited to say this is still the beginning of my research on the subject!