Showdown Ownership Projections and Picks for MNF | Week 15

NFL Showdowns have swings like no other. You can go from outside the cash line to within takedown territory (or vice versa) in a single play. A key to ensuring you’re on the right side of those swings more often than not is having a real sense of where ownership will be, and consequently, how to best leverage the field, either through roster construction or singular pivots.

First, a snapshot of the current ownership projections:

This article aims to use ownership to find paths to GPP success through the use of standard correlation and correlated leverage. 

Offensive Efficiency Report

aYPA = adjusted YPA = projected yards per attempt * projected adj. completion percentage

Game Script Builds

The pace of this game should make it a fun one. Moreover, it also means that there’s plenty of room for multiple skill-position players on each team to put up strong performances.

Chicago wins

With so much ownership concentrated between Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, choosing between the two and stacking Chicago could make for a formidable build. Chicago stacks should probably use the trio of Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, and David Montgomery.

Kicker night

This game is severely lacking in solid value plays. Even the un-productive tight ends and backup wide receivers cost around $5k, so the kickers might be the most potent value plays. This game’s pace could also favor them, as a higher amount of possessions leads to more opportunities for drives to stall in field goal range.

Correlated Leverage Opportunities

When looking for ways to diversify in showdown games, we want to continue the theme of telling stories within the lineup. Consequently, it makes sense to diversify with players who stand to benefit from down performances from players we’re already fading (or choosing to fade because we like the more contrarian option). 

Lastly, by no means am I suggesting to use all of these at once (you can’t) – instead, pick and choose your favorite and build around it. Or, even better, figure out which of these best fits your preferred core build.

K.J. Osborn or Tyler Conklin > Dalvin Cook or Justin Jefferson

If either of these peripheral guys has a big game, it becomes far less likely that both Minnesota studs hit their ceilings. 

Any D/STs

This is an exciting game with multiple exciting pieces on each side of the ball. People will be building lineups hoping to see a high-scoring affair.