Second-Year Scouting Report: Chris Olave

As the calendar turns to July, there are fewer than 70 days until the start of the 2023 NFL season. We are exactly 63 days away from the Thursday night kickoff matchup between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.

Best ball season is in full swing, and redraft leagues will begin shortly. As more and more fantasy managers begin drafting, this year’s rookies start to gain momentum. As the rookies gain attention, the sophomore class from last season will start to become overshadowed. Taking advantage of the prioritization of rookies over established veterans is a great edge to attack in fantasy drafts, especially when it comes to second-year players. These players often take huge strides during their second NFL season, building on their full season of NFL experience and development. 

We continue our second-year scouting report series today with New Orleans wide receiver Chris Olave. He was a first-round pick in last year’s draft, coming to New Orleans after a prolific career at Ohio State. This article will provide an overview of Chris Olave and how you should view him for redraft and dynasty leagues this season.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave was active for 15 of New Orleans’ 17 regular-season games, missing two separate games due to a hamstring strain and concussion. He led the Saints in most receiving categories including targets (119), receptions (72) and receiving yards (1,042). Olave also posted four touchdowns and took a huge step forward when Michael Thomas’ season ended after Week 3. 

Olave posted five games with nine or more targets, including consecutive games with 13 targets while Thomas was active in Weeks 2 and 3.

What Went Wrong

If you wanted to nitpick, maybe his touchdowns? Olave only scored four touchdowns despite 11 red zone targets, with one score coming in Week 18. That is a low number for the team’s clear top receiving option. As a comparison, tight end Juwan Johnson posted seven scores. Olave finished 25th among all wideouts with 13.2 FPPG. That number could have been significantly higher with just 2-3 more receiving scores. Given the absence of Michael Thomas, wouldn’t 2022 have been a better opportunity for production than the upcoming season? 

What Went Right

Olave quickly adjusted to a Saints offense that lost its top receiving option in Week 3. He ranked second among all rookies in targets, receptions and receiving yards. His 69.5 receiving yards per game actually ranked first among rookie wideouts, exceeding Garrett Wilson (64.9 YPG) and Drake London (50.9). 

He dealt with poor quarterback play all season, catching passes from some combination of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Per our FTN Utilization Tool, Olave was the standout receiving option among all New Orleans wideouts.

Prognosis Entering 2023

Fantasy drafters are extremely high on Olave’s 2023 prognosis. At Underdog, Olave is being drafted as the current WR12, carrying a second-round ADP of 19.1. It’s hard to project his fantasy floor, given the return of Michael Thomas and new quarterback play from Derek Carr. While the former Las Vegas signal-caller should be an upgrade, the presence of Thomas will necessitate an efficiency increase from Olave to exceed last year’s production. 

Dynasty Outlook

In dynasty/long-term fantasy leagues, Chris Olave is a fantastic option. His 4.39 speed combined with Carr’s accuracy should lead to robust fantasy seasons. New Orleans is the divisional favorite in the NFC South and has the easiest strength of schedule per opposing projected win totals. While Thomas’ presence may lower his ceiling, Olave’s fantasy floor is one of the safest of any top-20 wide receiver.