Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s not just an exciting group of rookie QBs that are shaking up the NFL. There was also a ton of movement at the QB position during the offseason.
Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford swapped teams, Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz have been given second chances with new franchises, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is continuing his tour of the USA.
There are also a handful of veteran vying for starting roles with new teams in 2021. This piece will run through the fantasy implications for all the veteran QB faces in new places.
Jared Goff is the new QB for the Lions
Detroit’s QB/WR combination went from enviable to laughable in one offseason. This offseason, the team lost both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones — a formidable one-two punch — as well as underrated franchise QB Matthew Stafford.
The Lions did still get another former first overall pick back in the trade in Jared Goff, but it’s no secret that he’s a downgrade from Stafford. And with the Golladay/Jones combination out — replaced by the Tyrell Williams/Breshad Perriman combination — the outlook goes from bad to worse.
Goff enjoyed playing with arguably the most talented supporting cast in football for a few years in Los Angeles, and now he moves to a team firmly in the bottom-half of the “talented offensive playmakers” rankings. Probably even the bottom half of the bottom half.
T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift are young, talented players, but there’s only so much a TE and RB can do for a QB. Goff is not on fantasy radars in 1-QB leagues, and he’s on the fringe in 2-QB leagues.
Matthew Stafford heads to the LA Rams
As noted above, Stafford got out Detroit at the right time, as his former offensive player makers have also found new homes.
In LA, Stafford will still have a dynamic duo at WR in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Additionally, Cam Akers appears to be a legitimate three-down workhorse at RB. At the TE position, Tyler Higbee has flashed high upside when not sharing snaps with Gerald Everett (and Everett is no longer on the Rams).
Stafford will also have the creative Sean McVay designing plays to take advantage of Stafford’s big arm. Stafford ranked fifth among QBs last season (min. 250 pass attempts) with an 8.7-yard average depth of target. Goff ranked fifth-lowest on that list (7.3-yard aDOT)
From a fantasy perspective in 2021, this is a sidegrade for Stafford compared to his value in recent seasons. He’s still going to be on that fringe fantasy QB1 barrier — likely to land somewhere between 10th and 15th overall in most rankings — and will surely be a great weekly streaming option at a minimum.
Sam Darnold moves from the Jets to the Panthers
Sam Darnold was dealt a bad hand in New York, struggling through the Adam Gase years with a talent-devoid supporting cast. In 38 games, Darnold threw just 45 TDs against 39 INTs while completing under 60% of his passes and averaging only 213 yards per game.
The stats are not compelling.
What is compelling is that Darnold is only turning 24 this summer. That’s the same age as Joe Burrow. He has three years of experience under his belt but still has a lot of football ahead of him. The Panthers also picked up his fifth-year option and didn’t draft a QB, which indicates they are committed to coaching Darnold up.
Darnold is also going from throwing to a WR group “featuring” Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Braxton Berrios and a developing Denzel Mims — to one that features D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson, the only non-slot Jets WR Darnold ever found success with. It’s a massive upgrade in supporting cast.
Darnold is still not on the radar in one-QB leagues, but he’s not a bad two-QB league throw if you decide to wait at the QB position. His dynasty stock is also on the rise — not that it could have gone any lower.
Carson Wentz gets a second chance for the Colts
Carson Wentz’s 2020 season was like one long, drawn out game of old school Oregon Trail, where you knew you the outcome from the first warning sign but went on anyway.
“C. Wentz has lost his arm. And his brain. Should we leave him before crossing the river?”
The Eagles chose “yes” by shipping Wentz off to Indianapolis in exchange for third- and second-round picks. There he joins T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and co. — a supporting cast that doesn’t seem wildly different from what he had in Philadelphia.
The real big difference for Wentz — and probably his last hope to be a starter in the NFL — is that he will be reunited with Frank Reich in Indy, an ex-QB that guided Wentz to his best seasons as a pro. The theory is that Reich holds the key to Wentz’ talent.
The Reich reunion is compelling, but not enough to bump Wentz into fantasy starter territory. Even with the Colts, Wentz remains a fantasy backup until he proves otherwise again.
Ryan Fitzpatrick continues his quest to complete the Infinity Gauntlet, joins Washington
Ryan Fitzpatrick appears to be on a mission to play for every team in the NFL, and the journeyman has chosen the Washington Football Team as his 2021 stop.
The move is good for fantasy purposes because it gives Washington’s formidable skill-position players an above-average, gunslinger-type QB for the first time. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas all get boosts with Fitz under center.
For Fitzpatrick’s fantasy stock, though, it’s more of the same. He’ll be viable in 2QB leagues and someone to keep an eye on for streaming purposes throughout the season when the matchup is right. But while Fitzpatrick is good enough to have a 17-year (and counting) career, mostly as a starter, he is far from consistent and his stats do not dazzle. And for fantasy, stats that dazzle is really all we care about in the end.
And a trio of QB who might be same faces, new places — if they win the starting job:
- Jameis Winston has a chance to be the Saints QB
Winston is not technically in a new place in 2021, but he never flirted with being the starter last season. Winston’s YOLO style usually suits him well for fantasy purposes, and if he’s the starter, he could emerge as a favorite late-round target if you wait at the QB position.
- Teddy Bridgewater will compete for the starting job with the Broncos
The Broncos did not take a QB in the draft and have indicated they are going to have an open camp competition between Drew Lock and Bridgewater. Whichever QB wins the job doesn’t need to be on your draft board, though.
- Andy Dalton (maybe) becomes the Chicago Bears QB
This one depends on how long the Bears want Justin Fields to sit behind Dalton, but Dalton isn’t making a splash for fantasy even if he is the starter.
