Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The thunderous boom you heard early Thursday was the earth shattering as rumors of a possible Russell Wilson trade dropped on social media. In recent weeks, reports have been leaking out from various sources regarding Wilson’s possible unhappiness with the Seattle Seahawks. This latest report looks to have more legs to it with the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders named as possible trade destinations for the longtime Seahawk quarterback. A later report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter modified the list to the Saints, Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears
The interesting pieces of these possible deals are how would Wilson fit with these various teams. What would that mean for the skill players around him for fantasy? So let’s dive into Wilson’s impact for all six teams that have been in Thursday’s rumor mill.
Russell Wilson trade to the Miami Dolphins
Any trade with the Dolphins receiving Wilson in a deal would conceivably be sending Tua Tagovailoa to Seattle. Wilson would be an automatic upgrade for Miami and their ability to push the ball downfield. Last season, Tagovailoa ranked 18th in deep adjusted completion percentage and 29th in deep passer rating (76.7) among 38 quarterbacks with 20 or more deep attempts. Meanwhile, Wilson led the NFL in deep passing touchdowns (13) and finished eighth in deep passing yards (948). DeVante Parker and a healthy Preston Williams would be huge beneficiaries here. Parker and Williams snagged 90.9% (11 targets) of their catchable deep targets last season for 289 yards and two touchdowns. We have witnessed Wilson's love for Jimmy Graham and other talented tight ends in the red zone in recent seasons. Mike Gesicki would carry sneaky double-digit touchdown upside as well. Myles Gaskin, the presumed starting running back for the Dolphins, could take a slight hit in touchdown equity with the mobile Wilson in town. Overall, this would be fantastic for him, though, as Wilson would raise the entire offense's scoring potential. Gaskin could see a dramatic uptick in the five total touchdowns he scored in 2020 in his 10 games played.
Russell Wilson trade to the New York Jets
Similar to Miami, any Wilson trade would probably include Sam Darnold heading to Seattle. The thing with the skill players for the Jets is that they are likely to change further before Week 1. The Jets have the second-most cap space in the NFL currently at $73.3 million. With a slew of receiving options likely to hit the open market, the Jets would likely turn to free agency to add another outside wide receiving threat instead of the NFL draft. The addition of a running back can’t be ruled out with former fourth-rounder La'Mical Perine or journeyman Ty Johnson currently sitting in the starter’s chair. Denzel Mims and his untapped athletic upside would get the biggest bump from Wilson’s arrival. In his rookie season, the downfield usage was evident. Mims ranked 12th in aDOT (14.1 yards) and 17th in yards per reception (15.5) while only playing nine games. If Jamison Crowder sticks on the roster, he would be in line to be peppered with targets. No one will ever mistake Crowder for Tyler Lockett running out of the slot, but Wilson has had no issues feeding slot volume to previous receivers like Doug Baldwin in Seattle. Christopher Herndon is the wild card here. Before being buried and misused by Adam Gase, Herndon has flashed in spurts with his athletic receiving ability. Former 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur, now Jets OC, could help Herndon with Wilson’s help reach new production heights.
Russell Wilson trade to the New Orleans Saints
Slant boy jokes are fun and all, but Michael Thomas would be sent to the moon if this trade went through. A healthy Thomas paired with Wilson would thrive. In 2018-2019, Thomas secured all 14 of his catchable deep targets with 33.9 yards per reception and two receiving touchdowns. This move would also increase the value of secondary receivers for New Orleans, such as Emmanuel Sanders, Tre'Quan Smith and Adam Trautman. Wilson’s arrival in the Big Easy could allow Sean Payton to return to the NFL-leading passing volume heights of previous years. From 2006 to 2016, the Saints finished outside the top-five in passing attempts only once (2009). A Wilson acquisition would also allow Alvin Kamara to continue to crush souls in fantasy football. Wilson’s mobility would pose a threat to Kamara’s rushing touchdowns and overall target volume, but if Payton brought back the high-flying Saints of old, that would be negated.
Russell Wilson trade to the Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are the final and possibly least exciting destination of this four-pack. Derek Carr would be heading to Seattle or another city if this trade were to take place. The Raiders are up against the cap and left with some intriguing but unproven weapons in the passing game outside of Darren Waller. Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow currently stand atop the wide receiver depth chart. Ruggs' speed is well known, and despite being considered a flop in year one, he did flash at times, with two games with 80-plus receiving yards and a score. Edwards, last season’s third-round pick, would become incredibly intriguing. Edwards was buried last season, but his athletic build and 17.8 (110th percentile) breakout age leave hope that a statistical eruption is possible in year two. Wilson would have no qualms throwing the ball up to Edwards in contested catch situations down the field, unlike Carr. Waller is in the prime of his career and is a mismatch anytime he steps on the field. Waller's value likely remains similar to 2020, where he garnered 145 targets, 1,196 receiving yards, and nine scores. The same is likely for Josh Jacobs. After two seasons of rumored pass game involvement for Jacobs, we have yet to see it. Jacobs has averaged 2.5 targets to his point. That number, along with his rushing share, is not likely to change much from previous levels. Unfortunately, this move could largely be a push considering their previous production for the most exciting parts of this skill roster.
Russell Wilson trade to the Dallas Cowboys
Wilson parachuting into a top-three pace and passing-rate team would be a small slice of heaven. The Cowboys receiving depth chart is stocked to the brim with talent. A trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup is a mouth-watering set of receivers to throw the ball to. As good as Dak Prescott is, this would be an upgrade for this unit. Comparing Wilson and Prescott is splitting hairs, but on paper, Wilson is still better. Last season, among quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, Wilson ranked third in adjusted completion percentage (79.4%), sixth in pressure adjusted completion percentage (70.2%), and 19th in deep adjusted completion percentage (44.1%). Prescott lagged in adjusted completion (12th, 78.0%) and pressure-adjusted completion percentage (18th, 65.2%), but he bested Wilson in the deep ball (first, 53.6%). And for the backfield, much like the case for Josh Jacobs, this would likely be a push to Ezekiel Elliott retaining his RB1 status.
Russell Wilson trade to the Chicago Bears
The major takeaway for any possibility of Wilson landing in Chicago would be their ability to potentially retain Allen Robinson. Robinson is likely out the door, but a splash move like this could convince him to stay. Darnell Mooney showed promise in his rookie season. His arrow would be firmly pointing up as the field stretcher for Wilson. Cole Kmet and David Montgomery already have solidified roles in this offensive outlook for 2021. Both would be aided with the overall outlook improving for a team ranked 23rd last year in points per game (22.4).
