PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 9

Somehow, we are already onto the second half of the NFL season. Week 9 appears to be a really fun slate and like we do every Friday afternoon, let’s take a look at some of my favorite props over at PrizePicks for Sunday’s action.

If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
• Three-pick entry pays 5x
• Four-pick entry pays 10x

Let’s look at Week 9, shall we?

Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos (@ ATL)

Projected score: 10.0 points; the pick: OVER

These lines are usually pretty tough, but this one stands out as a relatively easy call for me. Hopefully I don’t look like an idiot, but Fant finds himself in a fantastic spot here. For starters, he was once again very involved last Sunday, hauling in seven of his nine targets for nearly 50 yards. His 20.3% target share on the season now ranks sixth-best among all tight ends, while there is still plenty of upside with Fant, whose five deep targets are second at the position. Now the ultra-talented tight end faces a Falcons defense that is allowing a league-high 6.3 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season to go along with 1.0 touchdowns per game to the position. Call me crazy, but I think 10 points is a lock for Fant this week. Oh, look. A pun.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs SEA)

Projected points: 17.5; the pick: OVER

Through the first half of his inaugural season in Buffalo, Diggs is second in both receiving yards (695) and receptions (54), while his 79 targets pace the NFL. He has been nothing short of spectacular and gets an incredible matchup to keep the good times going. The Seahawks secondary will get Jamal Adams back this week, but he won’t slow down Diggs, as Seattle is coughing up 18 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers lined up on the right side of the formation, easily the most in football. With Shaquill Griffin still banged up, Diggs will likely see coverage from Quinton Dunbar in this game, who is surrendering 13 yards per catch on the season. Seattle is also allowing the most air yards on completions (1,668), which bodes well for Diggs.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (@ BUF)

Projected points: 17.5; the pick: OVER

Staying in that same game, I don’t see how the Bills contain Lockett in this one. Tre’Davious White will likely defend DK Metcalf on the perimeter just as Patrick Peterson did two Sunday nights ago. What did we see in that game? Lockett torched the secondary corners for Arizona to the tune of 200 yards and three scores. He was targeted 20 times as Russell Wilson played the matchups and took advantage. I envision a similar scenario on Sunday, especially since Buffalo struggles to defend the slot, allowing the eighth-most targets (8.6) and seventh-most catches (6.0) per game to opposing receivers out of the slot. Lockett, meanwhile, is operating out of the slot over 58 percent of the time on the season. As a Bills fan, I am really, really worried about Lockett this week.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (vs CAR)

Projected points: 17.0; the pick: UNDER

Hill exploded for 98 yards and two more touchdowns against the Jets last week, giving him eight scores on the year. He has yet to reach 100 yards in a game (though last week was as close as it gets) and while he has as much upside as any wideout in football, I’m going with the under here. Carolina is a zone-heavy defense that limits the deep passing plays, which tells me this will be more of a Travis Kelce/Clyde Edwards-Helaire game. The Panthers are allowing just 9.3 yards per completion thus far, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. We’ve seen a handful of receivers eclipse the 100-yard mark against Carolina this season, but those receivers were seeing double-digit targets. Hill, meanwhile, has exactly six targets in five of eight games this season.