Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Wide receivers and tight end to target in the last round of drafts this season.
That means I’m looking at players with an ADP over 225 who could make an impact this season as early as Week 1.
Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 233
Mo Alie-Cox has been a name that has bounced around the fantasy community over the past few years, but he has never stuck around long. This was due to Jack Doyle limiting his usage. But this season, that is about to change with Doyle out of Indy. Mo Alie-Cox is currently in a battle with Kylen Granson and rookie Jelani Woods to carve out the tight end role in the offense. As a result, his value in drafts has tanked, but it shouldn’t have, as he is the clear No. 1 option at the position. He has shown the ability to produce already, and in his four-year career, he has 936 yards and eight touchdowns on 70 receptions.
This season, the Colts are in desperate need of a second option behind Michael Pittman, and this is where Alie-Cox could step in. If so, his fantasy value will skyrocket, as he’ll have a path to 100 targets this year even on a run-heavy team. We have seen new quarterback Matt Ryan support multiple top fantasy assets in his career, some of which were tight ends. Ultimately, it will take Alie-Cox seeing a majority of the tight end target share to become fantasy viable, but with the inexperience behind him on the depth chart, it’s more likely he is the one to earn this share of work. We should be looking to draft him in the final round in the event that he grabs a significant role, because it could lead to TE1 numbers this year.
Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 243
After what was one of the worst seasons for any of the rookie wide receivers last year, Terrace Marshall has fallen completely off the radar for many. As a result, he is becoming a huge value in drafts. Marshall battled injuries while struggling to transition to the NFL game last year, resulting in limited usage. Ultimately, by the season’s end, he only played in 13 games and saw 30 targets. Of those minimal targets, he caught 17 balls for 138 yards and no touchdowns. On the flip side, he did see 23 first-read targets and produced 63 yards after the catch with only one drop (via FTN Advanced Receiving Stats).
This year, the Panthers hope to see an upgrade at quarterback after bringing in Baker Mayfield. Through this, we could see improvement in the team’s touchdown production. Additionally, the Panthers have a clear opening at the third wide receiver position, along with question marks around Robbie Anderson, who is the No. 2 option. Marshall could come into camp and put together a significant role in this offense. This is only intensified by the fact that he is healthy again and in his second season in the NFL. With the potential to become the second target on his team, Marshall is a screaming value this late in drafts, and you should capitalize on that.
Jonnu Smith, TE, New England Patriots
ADP: 248
Jonnu Smith was one of the most sought-after tight ends last year in free agency, ultimately landing in New England. At first, this was a great spot. However, they also decided to bring in Hunter Henry, squashing both Smith and Henry’s value. Henry sustained a productive role in 2021, while Smith did not – only producing 294 yards and one touchdown on 28 receptions. As a result, Smith has fallen completely off the radar, but it may be too soon to give up! Smith is the more physically talented player of the duo, and early in camp, he is seeing a lot of targets. The Patriots are making an effort to stretch the field, and this is an area where Smith’s athleticism could help him increase his role.
Currently, the Patriots are making a transition from long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to what seems like a coaching tandem of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. As a result, it is hard to say exactly what this offense will look like in 2022. It will likely feed off the run game and look to target their two highly talented tight ends in the passing game. This is where Smith can have a productive role, similar to his last season in Tennessee (65 targets-41 receptions-448 yards-8 touchdowns). So why not take a chance in the final round and see if he can regain this top-tier form once again?
Antoine Wesley, WR, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 250
Last season, we saw a small sample of what Antoine Wesley was capable of in this explosive Cardinals offense, as he produced 208 yards and three touchdowns on 19 receptions. This was all on just 32 targets. He was a key piece for the offense through Weeks 15-18, and during that span, he averaged 5.25 targets per game, 2.75 receptions per game and 10.5 yards per game. Additionally, he found the end zone three times, en route to a WR44 finish in that span – including one top-15 finish (Week 17- 19PPR points).
As we head into 2022, the Cardinals are in need of a second option in the passing game for the first six weeks of the season while DeAndre Hopkins serves his suspension. This is where Wesley could be fantasy relevant, as the Cardinals have a shallow depth chart. His biggest competition is 34-year-old A.J. Green, making it easy to see how he could have a significant role during this part of the season. On an offense that averaged 26.4 points per game last year and historically starts every season off on a tear, this could lead to a few blow-up weeks and consistent flex value weeks. Even if his role disappears after Hopkins returns, six weeks of solid production from your last pick in the draft is a great value!
Velus Jones, WR, Chicago Bears
ADP: 262
Velus Jones was a late riser, ultimately being taken in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears. As a result, he is admittedly in the conversation for the WR2 role in what is a shallow group of wide receivers. It took him a bit to break out in college, playing six years and ultimately not producing more than 300 yards in a season until 2021. This is the main reason why people don’t believe in him. However, he may have the best opportunity of any rookie wide receiver to step in on day one and produce.
Now in his second season, franchise quarterback Justin Fields is progressing, and with the addition of Luke Getsy as the offensive coordinator, the Bears hope to open up the offense. Additionally, they moved on from Allen Robinson, opening up a void at the wide receiver position this season. With this, it is easy to see how he could be a second or third target on the team behind Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Although it will likely not produce high-end fantasy numbers, it could allow him an opportunity to become a weekly flex player for your rosters. This makes him a significant value this late in your draft.
Bryan Edwards, WR, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 267
Bryan Edwards entered the league with high expectations after landing with the Raiders, who at the time had a shallow depth chart. Many believed he had a chance to step in on day one and have a major role in the offense. Unfortunately, it never materialized. In his two seasons in Las Vegas, he produced 764 yards and four touchdowns on 34 receptions, never finishing higher than WR65 in season-long PPR scoring. That left a bitter taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, which has caused his ADP to drop significantly.
As we head into 2022, Edwards is now in his third season and in a new situation after being traded to Atlanta. He likely becomes the third option in the passing game for the Falcons behind Kyle Pitts and rookie Drake London. Although the Falcons are far from a premier passing offense, there is a path for Edwards to put together weekly flex value – especially on a team that may be forced to pass more than they’d like. With some high-upside value, he is a perfect flier late in the draft in case he carves out a significant role this year.
