Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Dolphins and Patriots both failed to qualify for the postseason last year, but both teams have playoff aspirations in 2021-22. The Patriots were the most active team in the league during the offseason, spending nearly $160M on free agents. The Dolphins have a talented young core and won 10 games last season, so they’ll be hoping their team can take another step forward. With both teams likely battling for a Wild Card spot — the Bills are large favorites to win the division — this head-to-head matchup could be very important.
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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Week 1 Odds
Date/Time: September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Arena: Gillette Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Opening odds: Patriots -2.0 | O/U 45.5
Latest Dolphins-Patriots odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Patriots -2.5
- Total: 43.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Dolphins vs. Patriots
These two teams are considered pretty even on paper, which is reflected in the spread. The Patriots opened as slight two-point home favorites, and they’re up to -2.5 or -3.0 across the industry. They’ve received most of the early betting action in this contest, tallying 66% of the spread bets and 68% of the spread tickets.
This game is also expected to be one of the lowest scoring of the week. The total has already decreased by two full points at most sportsbooks, and the current mark of 42.5 is the second-lowest mark in Week 1.
That’s a bit of an outlier for the modern NFL. Only 65 games had a total below 45 points last season, but the under was 36-28-1 in those contests.
Quarterback analysis – Tua Tagovailoa vs. Mac Jones
Nick Saban will surely be tuned in for this contest. Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones were his starting quarterbacks at Alabama over the past two seasons, and now they’re squaring off in the NFL.
Tagovailoa had some growing pains as a rookie, and he averaged just 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt. He also had to be relieved by Ryan Fitzpatrick on certain occasions, and the Dolphins no longer have that luxury. However, Tagovailoa did go 6-3 straight up and against the spread as a rookie, and he was a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Expectations will be higher for Tagovailoa in his second season. The Dolphins brought in two big-play threats in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle during the offseason, and the offense has been emphasizing creating more big plays during training camp. Fuller will not be available versus the Patriots, as he serves the final game of a suspension, but the Dolphins pass-catchers should be significantly improved this year.
Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting job with the Patriots thanks to an impressive training camp and preseason. He made his mark in college with his accuracy, and he should be an immediate upgrade over Newton in that department. Newton did post the second-best completion percentage of his career last year, but he’s still just a 60.1% passer for his career. His 5.44 adjusted net yards per attempt also ranked just 27th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks.
The Patriots ran the ball at the second-highest frequency last season, but they should be able to pass more with Jones under center. That’s a good thing.
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Latest Dolphins betting news & info
The Dolphins quietly possessed one of the best pass defenses in the league last year. They ranked sixth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and they should be good in that department again this season. Cornerback Xavien Howard is back after agreeing to a restructured contract, while Byron Jones could take a step forward in his second season with the team. He was one of the best corners in football two years ago with the Cowboys, but he finished as the No. 57 corner according to ProFootballFocus last year.
If the Dolphins offense can take a step forward in Tagavailoa’s second season, they have more than enough talent to make the postseason.
Latest Patriots betting news & info
Bill Belichick was proven fallible last season. He thought he could survive without Tom Brady, and clearly, he thought wrong. They finished with a losing record for the first time since 2000, so they’ll be looking to bounce back in 2021-22.
However, the Patriots’ offseason spending spree was very uncharacteristic. They normally choose to let other teams overpay in free agency and scoop up compensatory draft picks, but they broke a record with the amount of money they shelled out this offseason. That should lead to improvement, but free agency is one of the most inefficient ways to build a team.
Guys like Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholor are clear upgrades over what the Patriots had at those positions last season, but are the big enough upgrades to push them back to the playoffs? That remains to be seen.
Dolphins vs. Patriots betting picks – NFL Week 1
I’m expecting a big jump from the Dolphins in 2021-22. Brian Flores is one of the best young coaches in football, and he owns a record of 20-12 ATS through his first two seasons. That includes a record of 16-9 as an underdog. I expect him to make the most out of a revamped offense and an underrated defense.
Meanwhile, the Patriots feel a bit overrated. Maybe Jones will turn in a Justin Herbert-caliber rookie season, but barring that, I don’t think this team is as talented as expected. I have some long-term positions against the Patriots this season.
With that in mind, the Dolphins are my clear preferred side in this matchup, especially if you can get them +3.0 or better.
FTNBets best bets
- Dolphins +3
For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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