Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
The Broncos will open their season on the road against the Giants, and both teams have bigger expectations in 2021-22. The Broncos are fringe playoff contenders — they’re +156 to make the playoffs on FanDuel Sportsbook — while the Giants will be looking to improve in Joe Judge’s second season. They had a busy offseason upgrading their offense, so this will be a make-or-break year for Daniel Jones.
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Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants Week 1 Odds
Date/Time: September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Arena: MetLife Stadium
How to watch: FOX
Opening odds: Broncos -1.0 | O/U 42.5
Latest Broncos-Giants odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Broncos -2.5
- Total: 42.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Broncos vs. Giants
The Broncos were initially listed as one-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but they have moved to at least -2.5. They’ve been the clear preferred side for the general public — 62% of the spread tickets have been placed on the Broncos — but the betting dollars have been pretty even.
The total has stayed stagnant at 42.5, which is one of the lowest marks in Week 1. The Broncos have a strong defense, and there are questions about the Giants offense as well. The betting activity on the total has been pretty even, with 57% of the bets and 48% of the dollars landing on the under.
Quarterback analysis – Teddy Bridgewater vs. Daniel Jones
The Broncos quarterback battle was one of the biggest stories during the preseason. Drew Lock was the incumbent, but the Broncos brought in Teddy Bridgewater for competition. Both players performed well during the preseason, but Bridgewater ultimately earned the starting job vs. the Giants.
That should make NFL bettors happy. There’s a reason that Bridgewater’s nickname is “Teddy Covers,” and it’s because he’s one of the best in the business against the spread. He owns a career mark of 35-14 ATS during the regular season, which makes him the fifth-most profitable quarterback since 2004. The only QBs who have been more profitable? Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. It’s hard to beat that group of cohorts.
Bridgewater has historically been his best as an underdog, but he’s still a very respectable 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
Daniel Jones is on the hot seat this season. Most believe that the Giants will be looking to make a change at the position unless he shows some significant improvement this season. The team brought in an alpha wide receiver in Kenny Golladay and used their first-round pick on the electric Kadarius Toney, so this is easily his best collection of weapons.
Jones has gone 13-13 against the spread as a starting quarterback, including a mark of 11-9 as an underdog. Those are solid numbers, but his record as a home underdog is concerning. He’s just 3-7 ATS in that situation, which is something to consider in this matchup.
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Latest Broncos betting news & info
Outside of the quarterback position, this Broncos team is ready to contend. They could boast one of the best pass-rushes in football this season. They ranked fifth in adjusted sack rate in 2020-21, and they did that without Von Miller. Adding him back into the equation should make them even more potent in 2021-22.
The offense also boasts an abundance of talent at the skill positions. Courtland Sutton looked like a future star at wide receiver before getting injured last season, and he’ll form an explosive 1-2 punch with Jerry Jeudy. Noah Fant also showed promise at tight end last year, while second-round pick Javonte Williams gives them a potential blue-chipper at running back.
Latest Giants betting news & info
The Giants may have a more talented group of receivers than in years past, but they might not be at 100% to start the season. Golladay and Toney have missed plenty of practice time, and Golladay even told reporters that they could start slow this season. Add in the fact that Saquon Barkley will likely be limited in his first game action since Week 2 of last year, and this team could have trouble putting points on the board against a strong Broncos defense.
The Giants were slightly below-average in terms of Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA last year, so this team is going to need to win games with their offense.
Broncos vs. Giants betting picks – NFL Week 1
The Broncos stand out as undervalued to start the season. Their only real question is at quarterback, and Bridgewater has historically been one of the more underrated players at the position. His record against the spread confirms that, so he represents a clear upgrade over Lock. I’m happy to lay less than a field goal on the road against a Giants squad at less than 100%, and I also have some long-term exposure on the Broncos to make the postseason.
FTNBets best bets
- Broncos -2.5
For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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