Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every game counts, and basically every game counts the same. At the end of the fantasy football season, your fantasy point total is real. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t also kind of a mirage. For example: In 2019, Sammy Watkins finished as the WR50, with 138.5 PPR points. Not a great season, but if you look at the raw totals, you probably think he was the kind of guy who put up a handful of productive weeks and could have been desperation-flex-worthy.
Here’s how that season actually went!
Sammy Watkins finished as the WR1 in Week 1, with 46.8 PPR points. That was 33.8% of his season total. He also had a WR25 week in Week 10, but otherwise Watkins didn’t have a single week within the top 36 receivers in 2019. That one massive week colored how we view his entire season. His full season averaged 9.9 PPR points per game; without Week 1, it was 7.1. The whole season counts, but it also can give an inaccurate or incomplete picture of a player’s contribution.
There isn’t always an example like Watkins to look at. And of course, the fewer total points a player puts up, the easier it is for a single game to skew the totals. But there are one-game wonders every fantasy football season, and today I’m looking at the examples from 2022. Below I’ll highlight the top one-game wonders (PPR scoring, min. 150 PPR points to qualify, 130 at tight end) from the season and what that means for us heading into 2023.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Total points: 236.1
Biggest game: 42.6, Week 2 (18.1%)
If this were a piece on two-game wonders instead of one, Lamar Jackson would be the clear winner, with Weeks 2 and 3 accounting for 34.8% of his season total. Through Week 3 last year, Jackson was the runaway QB1 at 104.3 points, the only quarterback over 100, and in fact the only one over 90. He only topped 20 twice more the rest of the way (21.8 in Week 8, 23.1 in Week 12), with no other finishes better than QB8. Jackson’s average dropped from 18.2 to 16.1 if you remove Week 2.
The takeaway? Jackson’s peak is still clearly as high as anyone’s, but his floor has dropped in recent seasons, especially with his apparently increased injury risk.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Total points: 155.3
Biggest game: 27.2, Week 6 (17.5%)
We know 2022 was a disaster for Matt Ryan, and it seems increasingly likely it’s the last we’ll see him on the field. But Week 6 worked out. The Colts avenged a 24-0 Week 2 loss by beating the eventual playoff Jaguars 34-27, with Ryan setting season-highs in pass attempts (58), completions (42), yards (389) and touchdowns (3). He was the QB2. And then he was benched eight days later. Rough go.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Total points: 230.2
Biggest game: 38.9, Week 2 (16.9%)
In Week 8 of the 2015 season, the Giants beat the Saints 52-49. Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined for 855 passing yards and 13 touchdowns in the game, the runaway QB1-2 of the week. That’s basically what happened in Week 2 of 2022, with the Dolphins winning 42-38 and Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa combining for 787 yards and 9 touchdowns, and Jackson adding 119 yards and a score on the ground. And then neither finished the season healthy, making the single game matter even more.
The Miami offense is always going to give Tua a high ceiling. It should also keep his floor high as well, though. Assuming he can stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine Tua landing on this list again next year.
Running Back
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Total points: 239.5
Biggest game: 55.1, Week 9 (23.0%)
Joe Mixon was the RB10 on the season. His 239.5 points worked out to a 17.1-point average. Remove his huge Week 9, and that average drops to 14.2, an average that would have dropped him to RB20. Five of Mixon’s 9 touchdowns on the year came in that Week 9 game, and it was also his only 100-yard rushing game (153) and one of only two games over 58 receiving yards. You look at the season totals, and you think Mixon had a good year. You look at the individual games, and you start to understand why there are rumors the Bengals could move on this offseason.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Total points: 211.7
Biggest game: 42.8, Week 8 (20.2%)
Joe Mixon scoring 56% of his season touchdowns in one game is crazy. Alvin Kamara scored a full 75% of his 2022 touchdowns (3 of 4) in Week 8. His only other score came in Week 16. He had a season-high in targets (10), receptions (9) and receiving yards (96) in that Week 8 game, adding 62 yards on the ground. His receiving yards per game hit a career-low 32.7 last year, and his yards per carry (4.0) was better only than his similarly disappointing 2021. He’s scored 6 rushing touchdowns combined the last two years after 16 in 2020. Now, he’s about to start the season at age 28 and is facing a suspension. Tread carefully.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Total points: 151.7
Biggest game: 33.9, Week 8 (22.3%)
I genuinely considered changing the threshold on this, because DeAndre Hopkins feels like cheating. He didn’t even debut until Week 7, the Cardinals had a Week 13 bye, he missed Weeks 17 and 18. Hopkins packed his 151.7 points into nine games (eight, really, given his 1 reception for 4 yards on 10 targets in Week 16). But even with that, his Week 8 stands out, with season-highs in receptions (12) and yards (150) and one of his three touchdowns. Wherever Hopkins plays in 2023, he’s going to command a big target share, and assuming he plays most of the year, that means he’s unlikely to appear here again.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total points: 225.4
Biggest game: 48.7, Week 17 (21.6%)
Mike Evans finished a relatively disappointing WR17 last season, but it’s almost a miracle he even got to that point — entering Week 17, he had 67 receptions, 917 yards and 3 touchdowns, all at or very near his career lows. Then he exploded in Week 17 for his second-career 200-yard game and third-career three-score games (first time doing them together), picking his full-season numbers up to overall respectability. The departure of Tom Brady and turn to Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask is going to matter much more for Evans than his peak/valley issue, but it’s still true that he’s a guy who looks like a mid-to-high WR2 but actually performs like a mid-to-low WR3 or worse far more often.
Tight End
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Total points: 145.8
Biggest game: 34.1, Week 5 (23.4%)
Taysom Hill is the poster boy for this. He was the TE9 on the season, better than guys like Dalton Schultz and Dallas Goedert. Only he had five different weeks outside of the top 35 tight ends, and if you take out his massive 4-touchdown Week 5 (three rushing, one passing — “tight end” is such a silly designation for Hill, except that any other designation would be equally silly) and season-high 112 scrimmage yards, his per-game average drops from 9.1 points per game to 7.4. And Hill entered that Week 5 game as TE20, and of course he’s barely an actual tight end, so what likely happened was he either wasn’t rostered or wasn’t started in his breakout game, after which everyone flocked to roster and start him. So his big game didn’t help anyone, and his down games hurt everyone.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Total points: 176.9
Biggest game: 39.2, Week 14 (22.2%)
Like Hill, Evan Engram’s huge game might not have helped that many people. He was coming off a 14-point Week 13, which helps, but he had totaled 7.6 points in the four weeks leading up to Week 13, sitting at TE15 through 13 weeks with only two touchdowns and no 70-yard games. Then he erupted for an 11-162-2 game on 15 targets in the Jags’ 36-22 win over the Titans. He added 62 yards in Week 15 and 113 in Week 16, but still, his per-game average was 10.4 for the season, but it was only 8.6 without Week 14. He was TE5 for the season, but replace Week 14 with his rest-of-season average, and he’d have been a fringe TE1 on the year. Feel free to draft Engram in 2023, but between his mirage of a season and the integration of Calvin Ridley into this offense, don’t count on him being a top-half-of-the-TE1s finisher again.
