NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 4

Week 4 is underway. Congratulations to those who are still alive in your survivor pools.

In honor of the featured celebrity of my Week 4 Survivor picks column, I guarantee these five Survivor picks.

Kansas City Chiefs

-9 at Jets

The Jets’ 15-10 loss to the Patriots in Week 3 drew the ire of iconic Jets quarterback Joe Namath. The Super Bowl III champion told The Michael Kay Show that he was “disgusted” by current quarterback Zach Wilson‘s performance and expressed his incredulity that Wilson went down on a sack without contact by exclaiming, “I thought you’re trying to win and make plays. You quit on a play? What is going on?”

Look, I respect Namath as much as anyone who is less than 54 years old. Wilson would need to complete 1,497 of his next 3,035 pass attempts (49.0%) and throw another 156 touchdowns versus 198 interceptions to match Namath’s Hall-of-Fame resume, and that’s undoubtedly a tall order. But I have to respectively tell Namath that he doesn’t see the bigger picture. I laid it all out in Week 2. The Jets needed to lose four of their five games between Week 2 and their Week 7 bye so Tom Brady could unretire, join the team, exact his revenge on the crosstown Giants in Week 8, become New York’s favorite son and lead the Jets to a historic playoff and Super Bowl run. Keegan Michael Key couldn’t script it any better. Breece Hall and the defense should win one more before Brady plays the savior. But it wasn’t coming in Week 3 against the Patriots and won’t be coming in Week 4 against the Chiefs – the latter are well-rested after an effective bye of a 41-10 beatdown of the Bears last Sunday, and Andy Reid is unbeatable with extra days to rest and prepare.

The win will come in Week 5 in Russell Wilson‘s final Broncos start.

Have some patience, Jets fans/legends.

Dallas Cowboys

-6.5 vs. Patriots

The Cowboys suffered a shocking 28-16 loss to a perceived-to-be-tanking Cardinals team last Sunday. Was it a trap game? Did star cornerback Trevon Diggs‘ ACL tear chip what had previously been a flawless defensive team’s confidence? Is Dak Prescott a not-so-secret seven-touchdown anchor on a team that would have beaten the Cardinals by 24 with a replacement-level quarterback? I won’t say yes or no to those questions. You can do your own research by watching First Take. But I will share that Prescott is 19 games over .500 at home and just five games over .500 on the road in his career and that he played the Cardinals in Arizona last weekend and returns to Dallas to play the Patriots this Sunday. Home-field advantage may have faded across the NFL at large in recent years. But no matter how nice the beds in the country’s finest 5-star hotels are, they can never quite match the temperature balancing of one’s own Sleep Number 360 Smart Bed. With his circadian rhythm restored, Prescott should handle the Patriots this weekend. 

San Francisco 49ers

-14 vs. Cardinals

When I named the Cowboys my fourth Survivor League lock in Week 3, I did not realize the Cardinals had beaten the Cowboys in six of their last seven matchups. I use Sunday Ticket to avoid the incessant national NFC East games as much as possible. But rest assured, I fired all of my stats assistants for the oversight. And I don’t need stats help to know that the 49ers beat the Cardinals 38-10 and 38-13 in 2022. I learned that while researching the rock-paper-scissors tendencies of the non-Cardinals NFC West teams. The 49ers conservatively have the best 11 players in this matchup. They’re a Survivor League free space if you didn’t use them in their Week 3 free space against the Giants.

Denver Broncos

-3 at Chicago Bears

Bears offensive coordinator and noted boomer Luke Getsy told Chicago Sun-Times reporter Mark Potash this week that the team is “in the process of building something special.” I already used up my three free articles for the month, so I couldn’t read the rest. But I assume it continued, “we plan to lose out and take top quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye with our No. 1 and the former Panthers No. 1 picks. That’s an unprecedented double the chance of finding the franchise quarterback that Justin Fields certainly isn’t.”

The Bears coaches and front office are playing chess while the rest of us play checkers. I just hope Fields runs in a touchdown as the Bears lose to a Broncos team with a better point differential even after they lost by 50 last week. My fantasy teams are all 0-3, you’re killing me, Justin!

Carolina Panthers

+4 vs. Vikings

I’m still deciding if this sad Panthers fan will make the Panthers his final Survivor pick every week in their march to an 0-17 record – and without a Round 1 draft pick for their troubles. But the Week 4 Revenge Game rankings left me little choice in the matter:

1. Adam Thielen, Panthers vs. Vikings – His 145 receiving yards from Andy Dalton in Week 3 were Thielen’s most since November of 2017 with Case Keenum at quarterback. Thielen would have made the Hall of Fame if the Vikings hadn’t saddled him with Kirk Cousins for the bulk of his career.

2. Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots at Cowboys – Tony Pollard has 24 red-zone carries – 11 more than any other running back – but just two touchdowns to show for it. I bet that $90 million Elliott contract looks a lot better this side of a bottom-five red-zone touchdown rate!

3. Mecole Hardman, Jets vs. Chiefs – Hardman is just as capable as Skyy Moore of catching one pass every 45 offensive snaps.

4. Jerry Tillery, Raiders at Chargers – This supposed Round 1 draft bust and November waiver bait is now the second-best player on the Raiders defense. Who’s laughing now, Chargers?

5. Jadeveon Clowney, Ravens at Browns – Clowney isn’t interested in airing his grievances with a Browns team that did not offer him a second contract after 46 pass pressures in 2021 and 2022. Let’s just say there’s a 95% chance Clowney makes Deshaun Watson eat turf this Sunday.

This is definitely the week. The Panthers by 3 as Kirk Cousins continues his aggressive single-score win-loss regression.

Scott’s Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Scott’s Record: 3-0