FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls into the postseason where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44
Dolphins
The Dolphins are limping into the playoffs, losing both games without Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert and plummeting down the standings. They’ve struggled to move the ball through the air, but haven’t lost a beat on the ground, riding their superstar rookie running back. Without Mostert, De’Von Achane has handled double-digit carries in back-to-back games, averaging nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (99) over the last two weeks.
He’s unlikely to command the same volume if Mostert suits up, but Achane has a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked bottom six in DVOA against the rush (27th). Achane only needs a handful of touches to break the game open, setting a new single-season high in yards per carry (7.8) among all players with at least 100 rush attempts in the Super Bowl era. Like Mostert, Waddle has also been limited in practice and is currently listed as questionable.
Chiefs
The Chiefs enter the postseason ranked outside the top two seeds for the first time since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter. They haven’t been the same juggernaut as years past, but still have the upper hand against a beaten-up Dolphins team they defeated earlier this season overseas. The 4.5 spread suggests Kansas City should take care of business at home, where they’ve won 10 out of a possible 12 playoff games with Mahomes under center. Unfortunately, they’ll be without Jerick McKinnon, who was ruled out for the rest of the postseason after undergoing core muscle surgery but may be getting back Kadarius Toney as soon as this week, who has been a limited participant in practice, currently listed as questionable.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -7.5, O/U 50.5
Packers
The Packers couldn’t have asked for a better start in their first season without Aaron Rodgers, already making the playoffs in year one. They’re the youngest team to make the postseason since 1978 but have received significant contributions from the veterans down the stretch, especially Aaron Jones who has finally started to look healthy. With AJ Dillon out or limited to sub-20% snap share, Jones has been dominant, averaging over 20 touches per game (21.8) for 118.8 combined rushing and receiving yards.