Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
Fly Eagles Fly
Three years removed from a Super Bowl victory, the Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2020 season 4-11-1, missing the postseason for the first time since 2016. As a result, the team fired head coach Doug Pederson and replaced him with Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. They also traded away quarterback Carson Wentz to Sirianni’s former team in exchange for two future draft picks. Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie made an emphasis on wanting to get younger and was ready to move forward with second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts at the helm. After a 2-5 start to the 2021 season, all signs pointed to another lost season. The Philly faithful became outraged, clamoring for the Eagles to run the ball. The team responded by shifting to a more run-centric offense and closed the season on a 7-3 run. On the season, the Eagles ranked first in rushing yards (2,715), averaging 159.7 rushing yards per game. In this article, I will be looking at how the Eagles’ schematic change impacted their offensive players.
Check out the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview on the FTN DataCast.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Jalen Hurts showed promise in his rookie season in 2020 after stepping in for a struggling Wentz. In his first full season as a starter in 2021, Hurts threw for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns while leading all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (139), yards (784) and touchdowns (10). He finished just inside the top-10 quarterbacks (QB9) despite missing two games. Although the box scores are encouraging, Hurts had a tale of two seasons. During the first seven weeks of the season, the Eagles implemented an air raid attack, passing nearly 60% of the time. Hurts averaged 34.57 pass attempts, 245.14 passing yards, and 1.43 passing touchdowns in those games. From Week 8 on, however, the Eagles limited Hurts’ passing volume by 10.82 fewer pass attempts per game. In the second half of the season, Hurts averaged only 178.5 passing yards and 0.78 passing touchdowns per game. He saw a slight uptick in rushing yards, which kept him as a fringe QB1.
You can see where Hurts ranks among quarterbacks in 2022 by using the FTN rankings.
DeVonta Smith, WR
After whiffing on former first-round wide receiver Jalen Reagor, the Eagles made DeVonta Smith a priority last year, trading up to two spots to select him with the 10th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Smith was coming off a historic Heisman campaign and was fortunate enough to be reunited with his former Crimson Tide quarterback. Smith operated as the Eagles WR1 from Day 1, catching 64 passes for 916 yards and five touchdowns on 104 targets. He commanded a team-high 21% target share and passed 2008 DeSean Jackson for the most receiving yards by a rookie in franchise history. Smith’s receiving production took a hit across the board from Week 8 on after the Eagles opted to take the air out of the ball. In Weeks 8-18, Smith averaged only 3.2 receptions and 51 receiving yards on 5.1 targets. However, he scored four out of his five receiving touchdowns in the final 10 games of the season. Smith will face stronger competition for target in 2022 after the Eagles traded for former Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown. Although his target share may decrease, Smith will likely draw softer coverage and could still see similar volume if the Eagles utilize a more balanced offense.
Dallas Goedert, TE
Dallas Goedert spent the first three-plus years of his career behind (or splitting time with) All-Pro tight end Zach Ertz. There were rumors suggesting Ertz could be moved during the offseason last year, but he remained in Philadelphia to start the season, splitting snaps with Goedert for the first six games of the season before getting traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Despite the Eagles’ offense taking a run-oriented approach, Goedert’s production increased in Weeks 8-18 due to a larger snap share. In half a season without Ertz, Goedert set career highs in target share (18.6%) and receiving yards (830). Goedert will play his first full season as the primary TE in 2022 and could be in line for a breakout year.
Miles Sanders, RB
In 2021 the Eagles led the league in rushing touchdowns (25), with 15 scores coming from their running backs (Hurts had the other 10). Despite finishing just behind Hurts in rushing attempts (137) and rushing yards (754), Miles Sanders did not score a single touchdown. He joined a group of only 10 running backs to receive at least 100 touches and failed to find the end zone since 2010. Sanders had a strong finish to end the season after averaging only nine attempts for 42.86 rushing yards over his first seven games. Once the Eagles shifted towards a run-first offense, Sanders averaged 90.8 rushing yards on 14.8 carries in Weeks 8-18. Injuries have limited Sanders, who has missed at least four games in each of the past two seasons. Since entering the league in 2019, Sanders has operated in a running back by committee, failing to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He enters a pivotal year in 2022, playing in the final year of his rookie contract. If he can stay healthy, Sanders is in line for a bounceback season with touchdown regression coming his way.
