NFL Splits Tool, Week 7: Kupp Back in Action

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

After placing Cooper Kupp on injured reserve list ahead of their season opener, the Rams were written off as contenders, projected to be one of the worst teams in 2023. They made a statement in Week 1, defeating the Seahawks 30-13, and they went on to win two of their first four games. Since Kupp returned to the lineup, LA has remained an even .500, losing to the Eagles in Week 5 followed by a win against the Cardinals in their most recent outing.

The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year hasn’t lost a step in his return to action, averaging 7.5 receptions, 133.0 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns through two games. He’s carved out an absurd 42% target share and 52% air yards during that stretch, posting a 32% target per route run rate. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to break down the impact of Kupp on the rest of the offense, projecting the team’s outlook for the rest of the season. It’s also worth noting that Kupp came out a bit hobbled in his last game, suffering an injury to the same ankle that was recently surgically repaired. Without an official diagnosis, Sports Injury Central believes it was a minor ankle sprain that will unlikely be an issue for the long term.

Matthew Stafford, QB

Matthew Stafford came out slinging in his first month of the season, clearing 300 yards through the air in three out of four games, averaging 307.25. He threw just three touchdowns during that stretch compared to five interceptions. Since Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5, Stafford has already matched his touchdown total in Weeks 1-4 (3), without a single turnover in either game. Although his touchdown rate has increased, his overall passing volume and production have taken a significant hit, failing to surpass 230 passing yards in back-to-back games. The gamescript has played a large role in Stafford’s diminishing numbers, attempting a season-low 24 passes in his last game against the Cardinals. Once the Rams took the lead, they leaned on their workhorse running back, Kyren Williams who handled 16 carries in the second half, icing the game away. A more competitive game environment should benefit Stafford, as well as the absence of Williams, who has operated as a workhorse for the team. 

Puka Nacua, WR