Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
After placing Cooper Kupp on injured reserve list ahead of their season opener, the Rams were written off as contenders, projected to be one of the worst teams in 2023. They made a statement in Week 1, defeating the Seahawks 30-13, and they went on to win two of their first four games. Since Kupp returned to the lineup, LA has remained an even .500, losing to the Eagles in Week 5 followed by a win against the Cardinals in their most recent outing.
The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year hasn’t lost a step in his return to action, averaging 7.5 receptions, 133.0 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns through two games. He’s carved out an absurd 42% target share and 52% air yards during that stretch, posting a 32% target per route run rate. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to break down the impact of Kupp on the rest of the offense, projecting the team’s outlook for the rest of the season. It’s also worth noting that Kupp came out a bit hobbled in his last game, suffering an injury to the same ankle that was recently surgically repaired. Without an official diagnosis, Sports Injury Central believes it was a minor ankle sprain that will unlikely be an issue for the long term.
Matthew Stafford, QB
Matthew Stafford came out slinging in his first month of the season, clearing 300 yards through the air in three out of four games, averaging 307.25. He threw just three touchdowns during that stretch compared to five interceptions. Since Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5, Stafford has already matched his touchdown total in Weeks 1-4 (3), without a single turnover in either game. Although his touchdown rate has increased, his overall passing volume and production have taken a significant hit, failing to surpass 230 passing yards in back-to-back games. The gamescript has played a large role in Stafford’s diminishing numbers, attempting a season-low 24 passes in his last game against the Cardinals. Once the Rams took the lead, they leaned on their workhorse running back, Kyren Williams who handled 16 carries in the second half, icing the game away. A more competitive game environment should benefit Stafford, as well as the absence of Williams, who has operated as a workhorse for the team.
Puka Nacua, WR
Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua hit the ground running in his season debut, catching 10 passes (10) on 15 targets for 119 yards. He was even better the following week, setting a single-game record in receptions by a first-year player, catching 15 passes on 20 targets for 147 yards. Nacua averaged 123.3 receiving yards in Weeks 1-4 but only found the end zone once in four games. He scored his second career touchdown in Cooper Kupp’s season debut but has been the clear second option in the pecking order. Although Nacua’s production has tailed off over the last two games, his underlying usage has remained strong, posting a 29% target share and 23% target per route run rate alongside Kupp. He caught a season-low four passes for 29 yards in Week 6, but still saw seven targets, good for a 26% target share.
Tutu Atwell, WR
Tutu Atwell had been a nonfactor for much of his career in Los Angeles but has shown promising signs of development in his third season, slotting in as the No. 2 option before Kupp’s return. He saw 8.8 targets per game in Week 1-4, averaging 5.5 receptions and 67.5 receiving yards. Since Kupp returned, Atwell has slowly been phased out of the offense, logging 39 total receiving yards in his last two games with just three receptions. He was targeted only once In Week 6, posting season-lows in target share (5%), target per route run rate (4%) and route participation rate (82%).
Tyler Higbee, TE
Tyler Higbee provided stable production relative to the tight end position in Weeks 1-4, averaging nearly 50 receiving yards (49) on 4.0 receptions and 6.5 targets. His numbers have plummeted across the board with Cooper Kupp, held to 20 or fewer receiving yards in each of his last two games. Although his volume has dropped off, his route participation rate has increased, up to 90% in Weeks 5-6.
Kyren Williams Update
Based on the video, Sports Injury Central has diagnosed Kyren Williams‘ injury as a left high ankle sprain (similar to Saquon Barkley) that will likely sideline him for the next 2-4 weeks. Since Week 2, Williams had one of the best roles among all running backs, handling 80% of the team’s carries with an 88% snap share. With Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, Williams’ averaged 17.5 opportunities per game, but his target share dropped to just 7%. Sixth-round rookie Zach Evans is the favorite to lead the backfield, but will likely be playing in a committee. The Rams activated Royce Freeman to the 53-man roster earlier in the week and brought back Darrell Henderson. They also signed Myles Gaskin to the practice squad, and he may factor into an already murky situation. Evans is the preferred option as a desperate flex but may yield disappointing results.
