Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | TNF Props | Anytime Touchdowns
Chris Meaney
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
The Giants narrowly avoided disaster in Week 2, erasing a 21-point deficit against the Joshua Dobbs-led Cardinals. Starting with a Saquon Barkley rushing touchdown in the third quarter, New York scored 24 unanswered points, ultimately winning the game 31-28. Barkley found the end zone one more time in the fourth quarter, hauling in a nine-yard receiving touchdown. He was the catalyst of the offense, handling 17 carries for 63 rushing yards on the ground and a team-high six receptions, for 29 yards through the air. Only Darren Waller saw more targets than Barkley (8), matching him in receptions (6). Barkley’s heavy involvement in the passing game has been the norm under Brian Daboll, dating back to last season when he led the team in targets (76) and tied for first in receptions (57). Missing their All-Pro running back in Week 3, the Giants were embarrassed Thursday night, defeated by the 49ers 30-12. Although Barkley was initially questionable to suit up earlier in the week, it was never likely based on his 16 SIC score.
The score is defined as a proprietary numerical injury index grading system, powered by algorithms that incorporate the health of teams or in this case, an individual player. It ranges from 1 to 100, with the latter indicating full health. The current diagnosis is a right ankle sprain, similar to the one he suffered in 2021, but on the left side. He missed three games that season, trending toward a similar timeline. and is on after missing 14 the previous year with a torn ACL. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to look at how Barkley’s absence has impacted the offense leading up to Week 3, dating back to 2020 when he missed 14 games with a torn ACL in Daniel Jones’ rookie season. The only starting pass-catcher who has played games with and without Barkly in New York is Darius Slayton, who has been with the team for five seasons.
Daniel Jones, QB
Daniel Jones thrived in his first season with Brian Daboll, throwing for a career-high 3,205 passing yards and 15 passing touchdowns in 2022. He also posted his best season as a rusher, carrying the ball 120 times for 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. There’s no denying Daboll’s impact on Jones’ progression, however, last season was also the first time he had Barkley available in every game he started. Since entering the league, Jones’ production has been significantly better with Barkley. Excluding this week, Jones has averaged over 25 yards through the air (+25.08 yards) and over 10 yards on the ground (+10.36 yards) with Barkley in the lineup. He also finds the end zone more often with Barkly active, with a significantly lower turnover rate. In Weeks 1-2, nine of Jones’ 41 completions went to Barkley, who at the time was tied for first on the team receptions (9) and receiving touchdowns (1). Jones’s first game without Barkley in 2023 was ugly, shut out of the end zone for the first time this season. Despite playing without their lead back, Jones handled just two carries for five yards, after leading all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (22) and rushing yards (102) entering Week 3.