NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With most of the significant offseason movements in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look forward to the upcoming league year and start preparing for our 2023 fantasy football drafts. In this series, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams and players in the past. The splits tool allows you to experiment with a wide variety of inputs such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations and much more to help you gain a better understanding of the cause and effect of different scenarios. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription for full access to the tool which will continue to update throughout the season.
After a two-year stint, the Zach Wilson era is all but over in New York (he’s still on the roster, but the team certainly hopes to not have to rely on him in 2023). As is Aaron Rodgers‘ tenure in Green Bay following the Jets’ acquisition of the future Hall of Fame quarterback days before the 2023 NFL Draft. Calling the transition under center an upgrade would be an understatement. That said, the Jets’ offense was much for functional with any quarterback not named “Zach Wilson.” In this article, I’m going to be using the splits tool to quantify the impact Wilson had on the Jets’ pass catchers who remain on the team in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, WR
The Jets’ 2022 first-round pick out of Ohio State, Garrett Wilson was one of the few bright spots of the season, becoming the first player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in franchise history. He solidified himself as the alpha on the team and led all first-year players in targets (147), receptions (83) and receiving yards (1,103). As great as Wilson was, his numbers could have been even better with any quarterback other than Zach Wilson. His 17-game pace without Wilson would have resulted in 191.25 targets (first in the NFL), 104.21 receptions (third), 1,379.21 receiving yards (sixth) and 8.5 receiving touchdowns (11th). Wilson’s upside in 2023 is through the roof with Aaron Rodgers and baked into early second-round ADP.
Corey Davis, WR
After breaking out in his fourth and final season in Tennessee, 2017 fifth overall pick Corey Davis has been quiet the last two seasons, not logging more than 536 receiving yards in either season. His numbers look even worse with Zach Wilson under center, aside from a slight uptick in the touchdown department. Scoring on the Jets’ offense was far and few between, but Davis scored once in five games with Wilson (20%) and once in eight games with every other quarterback (12.5%). Davis’s role in 2023 remains a mystery despite being the highest-paid wide receiver on the team. The Jets traded away Elijah Moore this offseason but also added Mecole Hardman, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb in free agency.
Tyler Conklin, TE
The Jets’ signing of Tyler Conklin to a three-year deal last offseason was a bit of a head-scratcher, considering the team had just brought in C.J. Uzomah on a similar three-year deal. It became clear early in the season that Conklin was the leader of the tight end room and the most reliable pass catcher outside of Garrett Wilson. In 2022, Conklin matched his career-high in targets (87) and touchdowns (3), while catching 68 passes for 552 yards. With Zach Wilson out of the lineup, Conklin was a viable streaming tight end, but limited scoring potential. That should change with Aaron Rodgers under center who has shown an affinity for targeting tight ends in the red zone.
