NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 9 Thursday Slate
The same game parlay for Thursday night is going to shade heavily to one side of the Philadelphia Eagles/Houston Texans game. The spread on this game is up to 14 points. The total is 45. That breaks down to the Eagles at about 29.5 and the Texans at 15.5. If you want to play touchdown props in this one, it makes sense to shade more to the Philly side of it given they are likely to score twice as often as the Texans do. If the game does turn into an easy victory for the Eagles, the gamescript will skew run heavy for them and pass heavy for the trailing Texans. This is the gamescript we will try to capitalize on in our same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Miles Sanders Anytime Touchdown
Davis Mills 1+ Interception
Boston Scott Anytime Touchdown
+1400, DraftKings Sportsbook
This same-game parlay is one that can make us some good money. The Eagles are a massive favorite against the Texans here. This matchup sets up horribly for Houston, as the Eagles currently are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging just shy of 150 per game. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league and should be pounding the run game from start to finish in this one. The Texans are ranked dead last in the league at stopping the run. They have allowed a league-high 186 rushing yards per game. That number is a full 30 yards worse than the next-worst run defense.
Miles Sanders is the starter for the Eagles, and he’s been hot lately. Sanders has four touchdowns in the last four games, finding the end zone in three of those four. He is listed below even money at -105 on DraftKings to get a TD this week. Houston is one of seven teams that has already allowed double-digit touchdowns on the ground this year, and Philly should add to that total with Sanders likely getting one early in the game.
The Sanders score we need should be part of the early Eagles onslaught. Philadelphia has been one of the best first-half teams in the NFL this year. They average 21 first-half points, almost 5 more than the second-best Buffalo Bills and almost 10 points above the median points scored by NFL offenses during first halves in 2022. I expect the Eagles to have a big halftime lead, which leads us to the second and third legs of our parlay.
A big Eagles lead will force the Texans to abandon the run. That means a lot of passes from Davis Mills against a very good Philly defense. Mills has thrown a pick in four of his last five games. Houston has leaned on Dameon Pierce as much as possible, but when they fall behind that may not be an option. Philly has a god pass rush and a good coverage secondary, which are both problems for a struggling Texans pass offense. This is when I think we get a pick or two out of Mills to cover that leg of our parlay.
The last leg here is where we get our big payday. Boston Scott is behind Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell in most games, but Scott is also someone they will lean on late in games to run between the tackles and close it out. Scott has been a touchdown scorer in these spots in the past, including Week 1 when he scored a late touchdown against another bad rush defense in Detroit. The Eagles will take the opportunity to rest Sanders if they are up big late in this one, and a Boston Scott TD at +600 would really juice up our returns on this parlay. If the game goes according to script, given the Texans weakness stopping the run, we could easily see two or three different ball carriers get into the end zone, and the payout is going to be nice at 14-1 if we are correct.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
