Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 16 of NFL action concludes tonight with a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Colts have decided to move on from Matt Ryan and will be giving the ball to Nick Foles in this game. They also will be playing without the services of star running back Jonathan Taylor. Those are major changes, and we will have to figure out how much they are going to change things for this offense.
The Chargers are finally healthy on the other side. Austin Ekeler had a shoulder scare in the last game but is slated to be active tonight alongside Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett. Justin Herbert will have all his toys available to play with and should be able to put up some points. Here is what I’m looking at for my Monday Night Football same game parlay.
Same Game Parlay for Monday Night Football
Zack Moss Anytime Touchdown
Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown
Keenan Allen over 54.5 yards receiving
Odds: +550 DraftKings
I’m leaning heavily on the running back position. For the Colts, Zack Moss is the guy most likely to find the end zone here. I know Deon Jackson had a huge game last time Jonathan Taylor was out, but Moss was not on the team then. Last week, we saw Moss play 53 snaps to Jackson’s 25. Moss handled 10 of the 14 third-down snaps and also saw four of the five short-yardage snaps. The books agree he is more likely to score, as his number implies he is more likely to find the end zone than Jackson. The Chargers have a run funnel defense. They give up chunk plays on the ground to concentrate on stopping deeper passes down the field. It has been the way teams attack them every game. Moss should see more of the opportunity and has a good chance to score against a soft run defense.
Austin Ekeler is in a great spot to find the end zone again tonight. The Colts have given up six rushing touchdowns in the last three games. Ekeler has 14 touchdowns on the year. Nine of them are rushing and five are through the air. He has scored in four of the last five games and is priced at around -120 to -160 to score.
Keenan Allen is in line for a big day against the Colts. Allen is the short-yardage receiver on the Chargers. He has consistently seen a lower aDOT than Mike Williams, who is the big-play guy. The Colts play a lot of zone defense, and that means the guy more likely to find the holes and rack up the catches today is Allen. Since returning in Week 11, Allen has gone for 94, 49, 88, 92 and 86 yards. He has only failed to top 80 in one of the last five games. We only need him to top 55 here, and he was close to that with 49 yards in the one game he did not produce well since returning. I think all three legs of this parlay are safe to play as single bets, which is why linking them for a +550 payout is so enticing.
