Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have a spicy Monday Night Football game between two NFC East rivals today. The Philadelphia Eagles are the last remaining unbeaten team, and they will be taking on the resurgent Washington Commanders. The Eagles are a tough matchup for Washington, as the Commanders’ success lately has come through the air, and Philly is very tough to pass against.
The Commanders defense is also above average in all aspects of the game, but they aren’t great at stopping or shutting down any one particular thing. The pass rush is above average, and the run defense and coverage ability are both league average or slightly above. The Eagles offense, especially that line, has been well above average. I doubt the Commanders stop them, but I also won’t expect many ceiling performances. This is the framework I am using to build my same game parlay of the day for Monday Night Football.
DraftKings NFL same game parlay of the day
Jalen Hurts 2+ touchdown passes
Taylor Heinicke 1+ interception
A.J. Brown anytime TD
Odds: +300
My same game parlay of the day is one that mirrors what we saw the last time these two teams played. The Commanders’ pass defense is about league average, but I think some of that may have more to do with their opponents. In Week 9, they played a solid Vikings offense that torched them through the air. Justin Jefferson had 7/115/1 and T.J. Hockenson added 9/70. The two main pass-catchers for the Eagles happen to be a big-time freakishly athletic wideout in A.J. Brown and their sure-handed athletic tight end Dallas Goedert.
I expect both to have big games. Before Minnesota torched the Commanders, they faced a Sam Ehlinger-led passing attack from the Colts, a wounded Green Bay passing offense, the Bears and Titans who basically refuse to pass and the Cowboys with backup Cooper Rush. Rush even threw for two touchdowns against them with No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb going for 6/97/1. When good receivers in offenses with decent volume face the Commanders, they tend to crush them.
Jalen Hurts tossed three TD passes against the Commanders in the first matchup, and I would expect the Eagles to have more success through the air in this one. Both DeVonta Smith and Brown scored in that Week 3 matchup, as did Goedert. Hurts threw for 340 yards on just 35 attempts in that one. I expect him to dominate, even if the score gets a little out of hand. Brown went 5/85/1 in the first matchup but was actually outgained by his running mate Smith. Brown has been the alpha all season and likely will see the target distribution switch back in his favor for this one. At +120 in this matchup, the anytime TD odds for Brown seem a little too high.
Taylor Heinicke took over for Wentz before the Week 7 game vs. Green Bay. He has now thrown an interception in each of the three starts. The Eagles create pressure and have a ball-hawking defense on the back end. They have at least one interception in six of the eight games they have played this season. They have a total of 12 on the year, so they average 1.5 per game as well. They are also a massive double-digit favorite here, which means this game is likely to be pass heavy from Washington. Hurts should be able to move the ball and put some points on the board for Philly through the air. If so, that sets up this game to be a shootout, which also gives me more confidence in Heinicke forcing one too many balls into tight windows.
