Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Now this is a Super Bowl matchup. Whether you’re intrigued by the regular season’s two top teams, the Kelce brothers, or the Andy Reid Revenge Game, there’s no shortage of storylines as we gear up for America’s favorite sports holiday. Can we get a Monday holiday observation of this event already? That’s a different story, though. We’re building one last same-game parlay of the football season for our purposes here, and we’re going big.
The Eagles claimed the NFC’s top seed in the regular season and proved they are the conference’s best football team after outclassing a rising Giants team and dismantling a tough 49ers team on both sides of the ball. Hurts did not have to do much with his arm in that contest as the Eagles pounded the rock, having three players with at least 11 carries (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Jalen Hurts). Philly’s offensive line and pass catchers are among the NFL’s best, but what’s even more concerning for the Chiefs? The Eagles’ defense may be playing even better than their offense.
The Chiefs’ journey through the AFC was rocky and, at times, questionable, but Mahomes did just enough on a high-ankle sprain to see them through a scrappy Jacksonville team and a talented, cocky Cincinnati team. Mahomes did Mahomes things, throwing for 326 passing yards and two touchdowns, but it may be the crucial, gutty eight yards rushing that got the Chiefs through. Remember the Joseph Ossai play that setup Harrison Butker’s game-winning field goal? How hobbled Mahomes will be is anybody’s guess, but he can still control the game with his pocket presence, strong arm, and football acumen. In short, I expect the best quarterback in the league to be fine. Good, even.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the Day
Kenneth Gainwell Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Over 74.5 Receiving Yards
Haason Reddick 1+ Sacks
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD
+550, DraftKings Sportsbook
I’ll start by saying I like the Eagles -1.5 and expect a near-neutral gamescript for both teams, as the line indicates. The Eagles’ formula for winning is running the football and letting their defense put them in plus situations. First, let’s get the bad out of the way with Kenneth Gainwell: Sometimes, he vanishes. However, he has surpassed the 14.5-yard threshold in six of his last nine games and has been the focal point of the Eagles’ rushing attack (26 combined carries) through the two playoff blowouts. I expect the Eagles’ defense to continue to make stops, so they should have plenty of chances to run the football. This should leave some opportunities for Gainwell after Miles Sanders gets his. In Week 18 against the Giants, when the Eagles needed to win to secure the NFC’s top seed, he carried the ball five times for 35 yards. That’s more of what I see in this game, with the potential for a lot more.
Just trust Travis Kelce. I want to stop there, but we can talk about the future Hall of Famer a little more. Kelce went for 98 yards on 14 catches in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars and 78 yards on seven receptions against the Bengals in the AFC Championship. The Philadelphia defense is strong at every level, but they were not a top-ten defense against tight end yardage during the regular season. Give me the best tight end of all time to smash this over, especially against an Eagles front that will force Patrick Mahomes to quickly look for his favorite target.
Haason Reddick — the Camden, NJ, native and former Temple University walk-on — has once again found his home in the Philadelphia area. The dude is a monster. He’s had a full sack in seven of his last nine games and at least two in four of his last six. He creates chaos and will cause Mahomes problems throughout the game. Look for the Chiefs to chip him as much as possible to help RT Andrew Wylie. Still, I don’t think it’s enough. Reddick will have his moment in the desert, a lovely revenge narrative to a Cardinals organization that declined his fifth-year option in 2020 after selecting him in the first round in 2017. He’ll be one of the most exciting players on the field Sunday.
Jalen Hurts has nine rushing touchdowns in his last nine starts. A three-touchdown performance against the Bears Dec. 18 bolstered this number, but I like Hurts to close out a career season with at least one rushing touchdown in the Super Bowl. The number of ways he can score is the most appealing part of this leg of the parlay. If the Eagles are close to the goal line, I would rather have a Jalen Hurts ticket than anyone else on the team based on the efficiency we’ve seen from his conversion rate this season. According to Mike Tanier at Football Outsiders, “The Eagles converted 29 first downs or touchdowns on 33 sneaks in the regular season, both figures the highest on record. On top of that, the Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (4) during the regular season and ranked 15th in Rush DVOA. He can score from anywhere inside the twenty on improvised runs or punch one in from the 1-yard line. Or maybe Nick Sirianni draws up a Philly Special 2.0? Either way, this leg adds the biggest boost to the parlay from the player with the best odds (-115) to score for either team.
