Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Week 3 main slate is officially in the books, and it was an interesting one. There were only a few massive busts, but the biggest games still came from some unexpected places.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 3 main slate as well as some of the winning lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Winners
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen was one of the best players in fantasy last year, but he got off to a dreadful start this season. He racked up 18.2 DraftKings points or less in each of his first two games, but he bounced back in a huge way in Week 3. He racked up four touchdowns through the air and one on the ground, bringing his fantasy total to 40.22 DKFP for the day. He was owned in approximately 5.7% of DraftKings’ tournament lineups, so he was a legit GPP-winner.
Chalk running backs
It was a great day for the chalk running backs. Saquon Barkley was the highest-owned running back on DraftKings, and he had easily his best game of the season. The Giants deactivated backup Devontae Booker, and Barkley responded with six catches, just under 100 total yards and a touchdown.
It didn’t stop there. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was comically underpriced at just $4,800 on DraftKings, and he posted a season-high 20.9 DKFP. Alexander Mattison was also popular in his spot start for Dalvin Cook, and he finished with more than 170 scrimmage yards and six catches.
Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and D’Andre Swift? They all managed to return value too. Overall, it was hard to pick an incorrect running back this week if you stayed in the shallow end of the pool.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Another week, another monster game for Kupp. He was the highest-owned player regardless of position basically across the board, and he definitely did not disappoint. He scored another two touchdowns – bringing his total to five for the year – to go along with nine catches for 96 yards.
Kupp has been easily the top fantasy wide receiver to start the year, so it will be interesting to see how quickly the pricing can adjust. If he’s not the most expensive receiver next week, he’ll likely garner massive ownership once again.
Losers
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
I think it’s pretty safe to say that Fields’ pro-debut was an utter failure. He finished with just 3.92 DKFP, and the Bears offense nearly made some unwanted history:
Fields was expected to be a rushing threat at quarterback, but he has brought very little to the table with his legs. He had just three carries for 12 yards this week after finishing with 10 carries for 31 yards in Week 2. He also took nine sacks in this contest, including a franchise-record 4.5 for Myles Garrett.
Head coach Matt Nagy has previously stated that Andy Dalton is the Bears’ starting quarterback when healthy, and Fields certainly did nothing to change his mind vs. the Browns. Dalton should sleep easy knowing that his job is still there for him moving forward.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Hockenson was a breakout star for the Lions through the first two weeks of the year. He amassed 16 catches, 163 yards, and two touchdowns in his first two contests, which made him the third-highest-scoring tight end over that time frame.
Hockenson came crashing back to reality on Sunday, and he brought a lot of fantasy teams with him. He was the second-highest owned player on the entire slate, checking in with an average ownership of 27.5% on DraftKings.
On a side note, Lions’ fans in general have to feel like losers. Their team was on the verge of pulling off a massive upset, only for Justin Tucker to drill a game-winning 66-yard field goal. Not only did that set a new NFL record, but it brought the Lions to 0-3 on the year. Any time I feel bad about being a Jets’ fan – which is quite often – I can take solace in the fact that at least they’re not the Lions.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
It wasn’t all that long ago that Woods and Kupp were viewed as equals in the Rams’ offense. My, how things have changed. While Kupp has been dominating defenses with Matthew Stafford under center, Woods has turned into an afterthought.
He entered Week 3 with just eight catches for 91 yards and one touchdown, and he turned in another lackluster performance vs. the Buccaneers. He finished with just three catches for 33 yards, making him one of the largest disappointments on the slate. Woods was the third-highest owned wide receiver on DraftKings, checking in with an average ownership of just under 19%.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $4.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
This was one of our first conventional winning lineups of the season. They stacked up Josh Allen with both Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, and they brought it back with Logan Thomas. Thomas didn’t smash, but the stack still provided more than enough value overall.
After that, this lineup ate the chalk with Mattison at running back, which was perfectly acceptable given the low-ownership stack. Swift, DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson round out this lineup, and all three players delivered excellent value.
Finally, the Cardinals’ defense had a field day vs. the Jaguars, racking up three sacks, two interceptions, two fumbles and a touchdown. They were also a bit chalky, but there’s no problem with playing a chalk defense if the rest of your lineup is diversified. That’s one of the reasons why an overlooked game stack can be so valuable.
NFL $3M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
This lineup also employed a game-stack, and this one was a bit more conventional. Kupp and Godwin were two of the highest-owned players on the slate, but adding in Stafford and Higbee did make it a bit more unique. The three-man combo of Stafford, Kupp and Higbee was used in just 1.2% of the lineups in this contest.
This lineup also featured three chalky running backs in Mattison, Barkley and Edwards-Helaire, and they also went with the Cardinals’ D. The only real differentiator was Mike Williams, who was used in less than 7% of lineups. He responded with a huge game — he racked up 122 yards and two touchdowns — which was enough to propel this team to victory.
$3M NFL Sunday Million
The game-stack trend continues on FanDuel. None of the previous winning lineups I’ve reviewed have used that method, but it was clearly back in favor in Week 3. This team used the three man combo of Justin Herbert, Ekeler and Williams for the Chargers and ran it back with Travis Kelce for the Chiefs.
The rest of this lineup is similar to the winning teams on DraftKings. Jefferson, Kupp, Mattison, and the Cardinals’ defense all make repeat appearances, with the big difference being Ja’Marr Chase. He didn’t have a huge game, but his two touchdowns were enough to propel him to 20.5 FanDuel points. That was good enough for this squad to earn the victory.
Overall, this team was pretty chalky, with only Herbert checking in at less than 6.5%. That said, the game-stack was enough of a differentiating factor to result in a unique lineup, which is really all that matters.
