Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
I think this is one of the more exciting weeks for NFL sides. We definitely have a few spots where I differ from public opinion, and thankfully the betting model agrees with me some of the time at least.
I also find myself in the odd situation of the Circa Millions with one of my entries 100th from last place. You would think that’s a bad thing, but last place gets paid $100k. Last place is defined as most incorrect picks, so you don’t get rewarded for not making choices. I’ll probably take the inverse of my choices on that one and generally focus on half-point spreads as well.
Week 7 Circa Millions Picks
Giants +3.5
I’m generally seeing +3 at most places, and this is the most important half-point in football. No one can figure this Giants team out, and I’m not going to try to either. I just take a free half-point when I see one, especially if the betting model likes that side too.
Browns +5.5
The most hated team in football managed to make itself worse this past week. Somehow it managed to beat the spread last week, and I think it will somehow manage to do it again this week, contrary to what every public bettor thinks. Generally, for my entries that are flailing in the standings, this is the type of contrarian half-point pick I need to hit in order to get myself back in striking distance.
Titans +9.5
Rarely, do you see our FTN Betting Model like an NFL side so much it’s nearly a 10% edge, but that’s where we find ourselves this week. It’s just a lot of points to give this Titans team. They’re 1-4, but they only have a -14 point differential, so they really aren’t that bad. As of this writing, nearly 96% of the bets on DraftKings are on the Bills -9.5, which also screams a fade-the-public situation.
