MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Each week in this space, I’m going to take a trip through the FTN air yards tool to find some of the most interesting and actionable takeaways for fantasy football.
Air yards represent the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the intended target. Regardless of whether a pass was complete or incomplete, air yards measure the amount of ground covered from passer to pass catcher. It does not account for the yards after catch on a completed pass. When calculating air yards, it’s important to keep in mind that not all air yards are created equal. An on-target throw is much more valuable than an uncatchable ball, even if the air yards are greater. Although air yards are not inductive of fantasy success, it’s a great way to calculate opportunity. The Weighted Opportunity Rating incorporates players’ share of team targets and the percentage of team air yards. Fantasy scoring is difficult to predict; however, opportunities are usually a stick stat and can translate to current and future output. Every week I will go position by position, highlighting the leaders in air yards. You can access the free air yards tool at FTN Fantasy.
Week 12 Air Yards Leaders
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
(422 air yards, fantasy QB16)
After failing to score 15-plus fantasy points in his first five games, Kenny Pickett has done so in back-to-back games. He cleared 260 passing yards for the second time in Week 11, throwing for 265 and a touchdown in a divisional loss to the Bengals. Although it’s still hard to trust Pickett as an every-week starter, he’s now finished as a top-16 quarterback in two straight weeks.
Runner-up: Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 377 air yards, fantasy QB3
Season leader: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 3,163 air yards, fantasy QB1
Wide Receiver
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
(165 air yards, fantasy WR36)
Although Packers’ second-round rookie Christian Watson has been the center of attention for the last two weeks, Allen Lazard was a few plays short from having a big day of his own. Lazard led the team in targets (11) and was the only player to see double-digit passes come his way. He had a mediocre day, catching five passes for 57 yards and no touchdowns. Better days should come for Lazard, but he faces a tough matchup in Week 12 against a Philly secondary allowing the 10th fewest points to opposing wide receivers (30.5 PPR points).
Runner-up: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders, 160 air yards, fantasy WR1
Season leader: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins, 1,251 air yards, fantasy WR1
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
(119 air yards, fantasy TE4)
Pat Freiermuth had his best fantasy finish of the season last week, catching a season-high eight passes on 12 targets for 79 receiving yards. His 12 targets and eight receptions in Week 11 were both team highs, doubling the next Steelers pass catcher. In his last two games without Chase Claypool, Freiermuth has logged a 27% and 31% target share with 7-plus targets in back-to-back games. Freiermuth has emerged as one of the few consistent options in a barren, tight-end landscape with weekly top-five upside.
Runner-up: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens, 60 air yards, fantasy TE7
Season leader: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons, 816 air yards, fantasy TE18
Running Back
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
(41 air yards, fantasy RB6)
David Montgomery commanded a workhorse role in his first game without Khalil Herbert, playing 80% of snaps and running a route on 75% of Chicago’s dropbacks. He handled 17 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown on the ground while catching three passes for 54 yards through the air. Montgomery’s 21.10 PPR points in Week 11 were a season-high and his first game with over 20 fantasy points. With Justin Fields dealing with a separated shoulder, Montgomery could see more volume in Week 12 and carve out a larger share of the teams rushing attempts.
Runner-up: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers, 29 air yards, fantasy RB3
Season leader: Breece Hall, New York Jets, 147 air yards, fantasy RB22
