Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This week’s edition of “Dynasty Moves to Make” is a bit running back heavy, but I do touch on all the positions at least once. (No kickers, because #BanKickers). As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for Darnell Mooney and a Magna Doodle. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Sells
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery seemed to have hold of the heavy side of Detroit’s backfield committee early in the season. But with both he and Jahmyr Gibbs missing games due to injury, the waters were muddied as to what the usage would actually look like in the Lions’ backfield. That shifted with both backs healthy as the season progressed. Neither missed a game from Week 10 on. Over that stretch, Montgomery had 16 more rush attempts, but Gibbs had a higher snap percentage and more use in the red zone. In the final nine games, Gibbs saw 28 red zone rush attempts and 10 targets to Monty’s 26 and 1. Montgomery will still be plenty involved in the Lion’s explosive offense, which ranked fifth in Offensive DVOA in 2023. But he’ll be hard-pressed to match his production from last season, with Gibbs’s role expected to expand even further.
Players I’d be willing to trade Montgomery for 1 for 1: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford took over lead back duties for the Browns after the gruesome knee injury Nick Chubb suffered in Week 2 against the Steelers. Ford filled in nicely with over 100 rushing yards, but he only accomplished that feat once more in Week 10 vs. Baltimore. With the backfield basically to himself, Ford rushed for a paltry 4 yards per carry but did see some usage in the passing game. He holds more value in PPR leagues as a capable pass-catching back but could see a drop in usage with Watson healthy coming into the season.
According to the FTN Splits tool, with Watson under center, Ford’s targets and receptions are cut virtually in half, from 4 targets and 2.9 catches per game to 2.4 targets and 1.6 catches per game. Chubb will be back sometime this season, and the Browns also brought in D’Onta Foreman. Foreman is an adequate back-end RB2 and a fine flex piece. But he’s being valued as a handcuff with a sky-high ceiling.
Players I’d be willing to trade Ford for 1 for 1: Any Chargers RB (not you, Isaiah Spiller), Devin Singletary, Chase Brown
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