Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Finally, you can turn your sports knowledge into real cash by investing in an athlete’s entire career. Prices rise and fall with every hit, huddle, and headline — and you can buy and sell instantly or hold for as long as you want. Three times a week, FTN will feature a player and his Mojo value — is it time to buy, sell, hold or short? Click here to get in on the Mojo action.
Week 3 always brings clarity to the NFL season.
After a kneejerk reaction to the first two weeks, we now have a decent enough sample size to see how players will be used on the offensive side of the ball. Last week, I analyzed why Washington rookie Jahan Dotson is a solid long-term investment for the Commanders. His speed, college production and surprisingly high rookie snap share, all provide a foundation for a long-term investment option.
If you are looking to make money on a rookie wideout this season? Look no further than Green Bay’s Romeo Doubs.
Price History: Romeo Doubs
Romeo Doubs was Green Bay’s fourth-round pick from Nevada in this year’s NFL Draft. He was a prolific producer for the Wolf Pack, posting over 2,000 yards and catching 20 touchdowns in his last 20 games. Doubs also made an impact on special teams, where he totaled over 100 return yards in three of his four college seasons. That is always a good harbinger of NFL production at the wideout position.
Doubs was overshadowed by Packers second-round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State. Watson brings superior metrics and size but has been bested by Doubs during the start of the season. Through the first three weeks, Doubs leads Green Bay in targets (16) and receiving yards (137).
Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay was critical for Doubs. He led the Packers in targets (eight), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (73), and he caught Green Bay’s only touchdown. Building trust with quarterback Aaron Rodgers is critical, especially in a game that Watson missed due to injury (hamstring).
Despite an exciting preseason, Doubs’ price at Mojo remained at $4.18 per share until the second half of Sunday’s game. It quickly rose to $4.60 and has now stabilized at $4.29, which is still a nice 2.64% growth increase in just one week.
Doubs WR1?
Doubs has positioned himself as the possible Green Bay WR1 for the remainder of the season. Watson’s status for Week 4 is unknown, and veteran Allen Lazard has never had more than 40 receptions in any of his four prior NFL seasons.
Doubs does not have blazing speed (4.5 40-Yard Dash), but has repeatedly shown the ability to get open. Rodgers immediately touted Doubs’ ability in training camp, and has provided the rookie chances during Green Bay’s first three games.
Rodgers has built trust with Doubs, and even if Lazard takes the majority of targets, Doubs is certainly pacing as Green Bay’s WR2. If Doubs can just secure that role, a reasonable projection is in the low to mid-$5 range, which would represent between almost 25% growth in just one season.
2022 Season Projection
Green Bay has a favorable stretch of opponents for both Rodgers and Doubs. In Weeks 1-13, the Packers projected to have the fifth-easiest schedule of fantasy opponents for both quarterbacks and wide receivers. They are about to start a string of three consecutive home games against New England (without Mac Jones), the Giants, and Jets. This provides nervous investors with the opportunity for a quick sale in just three weeks.
The AFC North provides little resistance to a Doubs ascension, with both Minnesota and Chicago ranking in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders. Given Rodgers’ 63 touchdowns and interception-free run of seven games against Chicago, the Bears should also not cause concern for Doubs investors.
Summary
The Packers lost the fifth-most targets from last season, led by Davante Adams vacating 169 targets, which accounted for 28.5% of Green Bay’s total. Doubs is sitting in a fantastic opportunity with a future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Rookie wide receivers carry huge investment upside at Mojo, but some take a few years to ascend to a position to receive consistent targets. Some, like Jahan Dotson and Chris Olave, must also battle mediocre quarterback play even when they reach their NFL prime. Romeo Doubs is a rare rookie wideout that can provide investors with a quick ROI, possibly over the next few games.
Doubs’ season-long floor should equate to at least a $0.50 increase, which potential $1 or more upside if he ascends to the team’s WR1 position. Grab Doubs before this next three-game stretch, and enjoy the merits of being tethered to one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks.
