Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 2 brings us two fantastic divisional rivalries in the NFC South and AFC North. Both games carry a point spread of three points or less, with the home team serving as the underdog in both games.
Here are my two favorite prop bets for tonight’s Monday Night matchups!
Michael Thomas Over 4.5 Receptions
(+120, DraftKings)
Michael Thomas finally looked healthy again in Week 1, seeing eight targets in New Orleans’ 16-15 victory over Tennessee. He posted five receptions for 61 yards, including three red-zone opportunities from quarterback Derek Carr. Thomas has battled constant injuries over the past three seasons, playing only 11 total games. However, he has averaged 7.73 targets and 5.6 receptions during that span, which makes a plus-money prop very enticing.
Carolina’s secondary will be without star CB Jaycee Horn, who was placed on injured reserve with an injured hamstring. Thomas dominates the short-to-intermediate area of the field, especially with speedsters Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed stretching defenses. In nine career games against the Panthers, Thomas has reached five or more receptions eight times. Per FTN Data, Thomas played the same amount of snaps as Olave, but ran two more routes.
Based on his projected opportunity, a shorthanded Carolina secondary and his past history, I’m grabbing the over on his prop at +120 on DraftKings. We project Thomas for exactly 5.0 receptions, equating to a 13% betting edge for tonight’s matchup.
Najee Harris Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, FanDuel)
I’ve had enough of the usage nonsense with Najee Harris.
Harris is still the primary rushing option for Pittsburgh, and nothing from Week 1 gives me any concern about this over on this rushing yardage prop tonight against the Browns.
Jaylen Warren is more active in the passing game, especially in last week’s negative game script against San Francisco. Warren saw six targets to just two for Harris, but Harris was much more effective in the rushing attack, recording 5.2 yards per carry.
Cleveland ranked just 26th in run defense DVOA, and their first game against the Bengals was skewed by both weather and an anemic Cincinnati rushing attack. Harris has eclipsed this number in each of his four career games against the Browns, averaging 103.8 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry.
We project Harris for 69.6 rushing yards tonight, equating to a robust 16.8% betting edge. Take advantage of the overreaction to Warren while it is still available.
