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Chris Meaney
Week 11 brings us the matchup of the season with the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Kansas City to battle the Chiefs. This Super Bowl rematch carries just a 2.5-point spread with a 45.5 total. Both teams lead their respective division, and this matchup will go a long way to determining the top playoff seed in each conference.
Here is my favorite prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night matchup!
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
(-113, BetRivers)
The Chiefs offense has failed to establish a No. 1 wide receiver all season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes relies on tight end Travis Kelce but does not have a wideout with more than 32 receptions this season (Rashee Rice). This is precisely why we are going back to Mahomes’ over rushing yardage total in this Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football.
Per our FTN Fantasy tool, Mahomes is averaging 28.7 rushing yards per game this season. In home matchups, that number jumps to 31.4 rushing yards per game. Mahomes will do whatever it takes to will his team to victory, and this year that means a huge increase in ground rushes. Mahomes carries a 5.3 yards per attempt average over his career, which has risen over 15% to 6.1 YPA this season.
The Eagles provide an interesting paradox with opposing quarterbacks. They allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but are actually second-best at limiting quarterback rushing yards. However, they have not seen a prolific group of rushing quarterbacks this season. Their list of quarterbacks include Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield. That directly affects this number dropping to 24.5 from the opening 26.5 rushing yards mark.
I’ll grab Mahomes over 24.5 rushing yards in a closely competitive game against the Eagles on MNF. Mahomes has tallied six rushing attempts or more in five games this season, which should put him comfortably over 30 rushing yards in this matchup. Kansas City faces their biggest challenge of the season, which should equate to Mahomes hitting this prop for the seventh time in 10 games this season.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
