Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With NFL free agency largely in the rear view mirror for 2024, now is the perfect time for the savvy NFL fan or dynasty manager to look ahead to the 2025 class. We saw a ton of changes at the running back position in 2024, and if we peek into our crystal ball and look ahead to 2025, the two positions headlining the class are wide receiver and quarterback.
The 2020 draft class is now due for extensions, and a few superstar players will be getting paid accordingly. Many of these players will wind up staying with their current teams – potentially getting locked up before free agency even hits – but a little advanced preparation never hurt anybody. While the quarterbacks and receivers headline this class, we should still expect some decent shuffling at the running back position as well. Tight end on the other hand doesn’t have a ton of big names who will be shuffling around, but two names who have been hot commodities in the fantasy community highlight the class and could make waves.
NFL 2025 Free Agency Look-Ahead
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
We’ve seen Dallas and Dak Prescott take it down to the wire when it comes to locking up a contract in the past. It feels as though both sides wish Prescott’s last contract was handled a bit more swiftly though, and I’d bank on that happening this time around. Still, another early playoff exit could put some pressure on Jerry Jones and Co. to shake things up at the sport’s most important position, and moving on from Prescott can’t be completely ruled out, even if it’s unlikely.
If the Cowboys sign Prescott to a mega-deal, it’ll be that much harder to put a star-studded team around him — especially when you have to consider both CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons will be ready for top of market contracts soon as well. Even if Prescott’s looming free agency doesn’t change the team he’s playing for, the financial aspect of a potential new contract has the arrow pointing slightly downward on the 30-year-old quarterback’s dynasty value.
Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
We’ve got a package deal with this one, as both of the Steelers top two quarterbacks are only signed up for one year in Pittsburgh. Both could be appealing options on the open market next year. It was shocking in 2024 to see how low the cost was to acquire both of these signal callers, and either (or even both) could have a chance to land a starting role in 2025 given the quarterback draft class isn’t quite as exciting as the group in 2024.
While neither quarterback feels like an exciting buy from a dynasty perspective, the cost to acquire either should be fairly cheap. I’m less interested in buying Russell Wilson given his age, but I’d be more than happy to buy the dip on Justin Fields if he can be acquired for cheap in your league. He’s still just 25 years old and his physical tools are some of the most impressive in the league. Even if he never blossoms into a top tier NFL passer, his rushing upside can still provide plenty of value for fantasy purposes if he lands a starting gig somewhere (maybe even in Pittsburgh).
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
The Lions seem committed to Jared Goff, but they’ll have a tough decision to make regarding his contract next offseason. He’s not going to reset the market by any imagination, but he’ll demand a hefty payday that will cause the Lions to think twice about bringing him back. Brad Holmes will surely be looking back at the Goff/Matthew Stafford trade of a few years ago and wonder if his team’s ready to be on the other side of the quarterback upgrade this time around.
Playing this uncertainty can be tricky for fantasy. Goff’s not an elite player by any stretch, but he provides both NFL and fantasy teams with value at a premium position (at least in superflex leagues). Ultimately, I’d bet on Goff staying in Detroit and serving as the point guard in an offense loaded with playmakers. He should be a top 10-15 quarterback in 2024, and no worse than a QB2 for at least a few years after that. I’d kick the tires to see if a buy window is open, and I’m holding if I already have him on my roster.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa will arguably be the most interesting name on the quarterback market next summer. It’ll be the first chance the 26-year-old quarterback has at a massive payday, and he’ll surely garner plenty of interest should he hit the open market. I believe Miami and Detroit follow a similar pattern though and pay top dollar to bring their guy that.
Even though I’d bet on a return to Miami, I’m likely selling Tagovailoa because I’m worried his production is tethered to his dynamic receiving corps that will face some questions in 2025. Next offseason, Jaylen Waddle will be a free agent, and Tyreek Hill will be 31 years old. I’d rather get ahead of this potential risk and tier down to get a guy like Will Levis or Baker Mayfield plus extra assets than hold onto Tagovailoa.
Other Notables
Running Back
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
In 2024, no position saw more shuffling during free agency than running back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that happen again in 2025. For Travis Etienne, that’s likely not a good thing for his dynasty value. Etienne has one of the best situations a running back could ask for as the coaching staff in Jacksonville had no problem giving him bell cow usage this past season, and he’s paired with a good coach and quarterback in Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence.
If I had to predict an outcome for Etienne next offseason, I’d guess he signs elsewhere for a top value contract. The Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round last year, so they have a reasonable succession plan in place and could be comfortable letting Etienne walk and spending their cap dollars elsewhere. This would likely be a hit to Etienne’s dynasty value, and I’d consider selling high this offseason if I’m a rebuilding team. Given the RB market right now, it’d have to be for a massive return, but coming off the overall RB3 season means Etienne’s value is likely at its peak.
Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
We see another double dose in Pittsburgh, as both of the team’s top backs are pending free agents next offseason. Historically, Mike Tomlin has been a coach who likes to give one running back a massive workload. If only one of Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren return to Pittsburgh next year, we could see the Steelers get back to that style of backfield, which could be a gold mine for fantasy purposes.
In 2023, it felt like Warren “earned his stripes” and bucked the historic trend of the one-man backfield in Pittsburgh due to his impressive work ethic and on field performance. To me, this signals he’s the more likely candidate to return to Pittsburgh in 2025, and I’d be looking to acquire him for the right price. Still, Harris is a back with round one draft capital, and those guys hold their value extremely well in both the fantasy community and in the NFL. Whoever signs him will likely bring him onboard to serve as a team’s starter, which could mean both backs have better opportunities for fantasy points in 2025.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
There are rumors that Nick Chubb could become a free agent before next offseason, as he could be a potential cap casualty in Cleveland. If he hits the open market (this year or next), a team will surely be signing him with the hope that he can provide some short-term juice to an offense looking to get over the hump. In all likelihood, that team will want to feed Chubb so he should have a valuable role, but investing in a back who will be 29 years old next offseason is risky business.
As much as I love Chubb, I can’t get behind investing significantly in a running back his age who is coming off a major knee injury. I’m rooting for him to succeed as a player, but as a dynasty manager, I’d be selling or avoiding if at all possible.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams is quite possibly my favorite buy at running back right now. The Broncos have been an absolute mess during Williams’ tenure there, and almost any other offense would be an upgrade for the 23-year-old back. Considering Denver has many needs to fill on their roster, it’d be a bit surprising to see them invest anything significant in trying to retain their top back next offseason.
Considering Williams will be two years coming off a gruesome knee injury this season, and there’s hope of a brighter landing spot next year, now is the time to buy for dynasty managers. The running back market is pretty scarce right now, so he may not come cheap, but Williams has the profile of a guy whose arrow is very much pointing up for the next few seasons. I’ll gladly buy now before the price potentially skyrockets.
Other Notables
Wide Receiver
Tee Higgins/Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
And now we get to arguably the most exciting group in next year’s free agent class – the receivers. We see another double dip here, as both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are set to be free agents next offseason. Chase however has a fifth-year option, and all signs indicate he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. He’s one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football, and it’d take something drastic for that to change anytime soon.
Higgins on the other hand feels like a real candidate to be playing elsewhere in 2025. While many are excited about the idea of him being a No. 1 somewhere, I’m not convinced that’ll boost his fantasy value very much. Are we sure being someone like Bryce Young’s No. 1 is a better situation than being Joe Burrow’s No. 2? Personally, I’m not sold on that being an upgrade, and I’d be selling Higgins to whoever thinks the grass will be greener elsewhere in 2025.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
The fantasy football wide receiver king comes up next on our list. Now that the quarterback situation is a question mark in Minnesota, dynasty managers have a bit of a decision to make. We haven’t seen a significant sample size yet, but all signs indicate Justin Jefferson is a “quarterback proof” fantasy player, and no matter how poor his situation is in 2025, he’ll still be an elite option.
In all likelihood though, Jefferson will stay in Minnesota and become the league’s highest-paid receiver when he signs his new deal. The Vikings are a smart organization, and if they do in fact draft JJ McCarthy (or any quarterback) pairing him with a guy like Jefferson will ease the young passer’s transition to the NFL. Obtaining Jefferson in dynasty is no easy task, but on the off chance a sliver of a buy window opens up because the current manager is worried about the QB situation, I’d swoop in and buy aggressively.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
As mentioned in the Prescott section, the Cowboys are coming up on a period where they have to decide if or how they will pay all of Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. Historically, Jerry Jones has taken care of his home-grown talent, and I’d bet on all three staying in Dallas for years to come. This is great news for Lamb’s stability in the fantasy market, as he’ll continue to be tethered to a high-quality quarterback, and Dallas won’t have much cap space to bring other pass catchers on board to take targets away from Lamb.
In 2023, Lamb established himself among the most elite group of fantasy wide receivers, and in all likelihood, that won’t be changing anytime soon. Lamb will likely become one of the highest paid non-quarterbacks in the game next year, and he should continue to pay fantasy dividends in Dallas for years to come.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers need to start planning for a world where Brock Purdy is making more than a million dollars a year, and Brandon Aiyuk may be a casualty of that planning. San Francisco already has a ton of money allocated to their offense via guys like Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey — then on the other side of the ball, Nick Bosa is the highest-paid defender in the league. Having too much superstar talent on your roster isn’t the worst problem to have, but it does mean that occasionally a guy like Aiyuk needs to go elsewhere.
Unlike with Tee Higgins, I am buying the idea of a change of scenery being a good thing for Aiyuk. Purdy isn’t a Burrow-level talent, and there’s more than one other mouth to feed in San Francisco which is a significant difference from the two-man wrecking crew Chase and Higgins formed in Cincinnati. Aiyuk could see a massive uptick in targets if he’s donning a new uniform in 2025, and I’d gladly try to acquire him a year early to try and get ahead of that shift.
Other Notables
Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Perennial breakout candidate Kyle Pitts is far and away the No. 1 free agent tight end next year. However, the Falcons will have a fifth-year option on Pitts available to them. With Kirk Cousins under center in Atlanta this year, we should see a significant upgrade in quarterback play, and I think the upgrade at QB paired with another year removed from injury should be a great sign for Pitts’ dynasty value. If Pitts produces at a high level again this year, we’re nearly guaranteed to get at least one more year in Atlanta after the 2024 season.
Unfortunately, the buy window for Pitts likely closed when Cousins signed with the Falcons. However, despite being just 23 years old, Pitts’ value is still significantly lower than it was a few seasons ago. Personally, I’m still betting on the guy who put up 1,000 yards as a 21-year-old rookie, and even if the quarterback change leads to a higher price tag right now, I’m guessing the price will be even higher this time next year. I’d rather get out ahead of that by trying to acquire now.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been a popular team in this piece, and one pending free agent who I’d feel fairly confident in returning is Pat Freiermuth. The 25-year-old tight end feels like a Steelers guy, and I’d envision Pittsburgh brings him back at a fair price point. However, the fact that there will be very few tight ends available next year means another needy team could opt to outbid the Steelers.
Freiermuth doesn’t feel like a guy whose value will significantly move up or down due to a change of scenery. He’ll still be a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 wherever he ends up. These guys tend to be fairly easy to acquire (unless you play in a TE premium league) so I wouldn’t feel the need to take any preliminary action on Freiermuth. Considering the Steelers got an upgrade at quarterback this year and Diontae Johnson is now out of the picture, Freiermuth could be in for a career year in 2024. Given this, I’m holding if I have him, and would re-evaluate selling next offseason if he sees a value bump by moving to another team.
