Bettings
article-picture
article-picture
NFL
Fantasy

Introducing Fantasy Wins Added: A Smarter Way to Measure Fantasy Value

Share
Contents
Close

There are so many ways to slice and dice the fantasy football cake that it sometimes becomes far too easy to get lost in all the noise.

Enter Fantasy Wins Added, a new metric that simplifies fantasy football analysis and answers the only question that matters at the end of the day: “Does this player help me win?”

We finally have the answer.

 

I’ll start up top by giving some acknowledgements. Several others in the fantasy football landscape have forayed into fantasy Wins Above Replacement, a metric borrowed from baseball 40 years ago, including Jeff Henderson at FantasyPros and Fantasy Points, Matt DiSorbo at The Fantasy Footballers, and perhaps others (please reach out @LoechnerNFL if I have missed someone).

But while this work has been truly amazing, I felt it relied too heavily on averages and the assumption of replacement-level production. So I worked to find a better way.

The problem with using Fantasy WAR

Again, I think this statistic is fantastic and, directionally, solves the same problem I am addressing. But it didn’t feel complete, so I wanted to expand on the work.

I won’t go into detail of how fantasy WAR is calculated (the links above will show you), but I will highlight a few of the concerns I felt needed to be solved for:

  1. Get away from rigid averages.
  2. Get away from assumed rigid team structures.
  3. Get away from the assumption that we correctly identify replacement-level players, and that those replacement-level players only perform at replacement levels.

As we know, every fantasy football player is prone to explosive swings. Ja’Marr Chase scored 1.3 fantasy points in Week 15 but 55.6 points in Week 17. “Replacement-level” player Rex Burkhead scored 5.7 in Week 15 but 28.9 in Week 16.

Solving WAR problems and inventing straightforward Fantasy Wins Added

To solve for these issues accurately, I did the only thing I could think of: I built a model and simulated every week of the fantasy football season 100,000 times each using varied realistic roster structures and player choices. (I started with 500,000 simulations per week, but it became clear 100,000 was enough.)

I then calculated the win rate of every player from these simulations to find their expected wins added (or lost). For all players not in my realistic simulation player pool — which was generated by using weekly consensus rankings — I applied a win rate formula derived from the simulations so that every player ended up with a unique expected win rate every week based on their production.

Understanding Fantasy Wins Added

Fantasy football is a zero-sum game. You either win or you lose.

It doesn’t matter if you score 200 points and your opponent scores 40, you still only get 1 win. Likewise, if you score 200 points but your opponent gets 201, you still lost 100% of that game.

Since every game has 1 winner and 1 loser, the average win rate is, of course, 50%. So if the simulations show that teams with Cooper Kupp won 70% of the time, it means Kupp added 0.20 wins all my himself (0.70 – 0.50 = 0.20).

Note that Fantasy Wins Added can also go negative if the players’ expected win rate in a given week is below 50%.

Cooper Kupp was the 2021 fantasy MVP based on Fantasy Wins Added

<img src="https://d2y4ihze0bzr5g.cloudfront.net/source/2020/Cooper_Kupp.jpg" alt="

This sample data is based on a 12-team PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 flex. 

During the season, FTN will provide Fantasy Wins Added for PPR, half-PPR and non-PPR settings.

Here are your top 20 performers from 2021 based on Fantasy Wins Added:

Player

Team

Pos

Wins Added

Avg. Expected Win %

Games

Cooper Kupp

LA

WR

2.92

68%

16

Jonathan Taylor

IND

RB

2.09

63%

16

Davante Adams

GB

WR

1.94

63%

15

Deebo Samuel

SF

WR

1.72

61%

15

Austin Ekeler

LAC

RB

1.70

61%

15

Justin Jefferson

MIN

WR

1.55

60%

16

Tyreek Hill

KC

WR

1.39

59%

16

Mark Andrews

BLT

TE

1.36

59%

16

Joe Mixon

CIN

RB

1.34

58%

16

Najee Harris

PIT

RB

1.33

58%

16

Ja’Marr Chase

CIN

WR

1.30

58%

16

Josh Allen

BUF

QB

1.21

58%

16

Leonard Fournette

TB

RB

1.16

58%

14

Derrick Henry

TEN

RB

1.15

64%

8

Travis Kelce

KC

TE

1.14

58%

15

Diontae Johnson

PIT

WR

1.13

58%

15

Stefon Diggs

BUF

WR

1.05

57%

16

Chris Godwin

TB

WR

1.03

57%

14

Keenan Allen

LAC

WR

0.99

57%

15

Alvin Kamara

NO

RB

0.98

58%

12

Kupp absolutely dominated this study, as he personally accounted for nearly 3 full wins throughout 2021.

If that doesn’t seem like a lot, here’s another way to read that stat: Simply having Kupp on your team last year meant your expected win rate was 68% solely because of him. You instantly saw your odds of winning jump from 1-in-2 to 2-in-3 just because of Kupp.

Perhaps the most amazing name on the above list is Derrick Henry, who was the 14th-most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year even though he only played eight games.

How Fantasy Wins Added blows up conventional wisdom around “value”

Let’s use a concrete example of why this stat matters by comparing Joe Mixon and Najee Harris from last year. The chart below shows weeks in which both Mixon and Harris played last year, and each player’s Fantasy Wins Added in those weeks.

fantasy wins added najee harris joe mixon 2021

In these 15 games, Harris had 12 games with positive Fantasy Wins Added (so 12 games in which he helped you win and three in which he did not). Mixon had a positive Fantasy Wins Added in only nine of the games.

Conventional metrics would show that Mixon was a “fantasy RB1” (top-12) in seven of these 15 games. Harris was an “RB1” in 10 of these games. Yet Mixon was still a better fantasy asset. Over the course of these 15 games, Mixon had more Fantasy Wins Added (1.32 vs. 1.26) despite the fact Harris was far more consistent.

Looking at just total fantasy points scored or “weeks as a RB1” doesn’t tell enough of the story. Najee Harris scored more fantasy points than Joe Mixon last year, but Mixon was the better fantasy player.

The introduction of Fantasy Wins Added revolutionizes the way we should view fantasy value. 

 

2021 Top 10 QBs in Fantasy Wins Added

Player Team Pos Wins Added Avg. Expected Win % Games
Josh Allen BUF QB 1.21 58% 16
Justin Herbert LAC QB 0.88 56% 16
Tom Brady TB QB 0.79 55% 16
Patrick Mahomes KC QB 0.68 54% 16
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 0.66 54% 15
Kyler Murray ARZ QB 0.58 54% 13
Jalen Hurts PHI QB 0.58 54% 15
Matthew Stafford LA QB 0.40 52% 16
Joe Burrow CIN QB 0.36 52% 16
Dak Prescott DAL QB 0.30 52% 15

2021 Top 10 RBs in Fantasy Wins Added

Player Team Pos Wins Added Avg. Expected Win % Games
Jonathan Taylor IND RB 2.09 63% 16
Austin Ekeler LAC RB 1.70 61% 15
Joe Mixon CIN RB 1.34 58% 16
Najee Harris PIT RB 1.33 58% 16
Leonard Fournette TB RB 1.16 58% 14
Derrick Henry TEN RB 1.15 64% 8
Alvin Kamara NO RB 0.98 58% 12
James Conner ARZ RB 0.91 56% 14
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL RB 0.77 55% 15
Dalvin Cook MIN RB 0.73 56% 12

2021 Top 10 WRs in Fantasy Wins Added

Player Team Pos Wins Added Avg. Expected Win % Games
Cooper Kupp LA WR 2.92 68% 16
Davante Adams GB WR 1.94 63% 15
Deebo Samuel SF WR 1.72 61% 15
Justin Jefferson MIN WR 1.55 60% 16
Tyreek Hill KC WR 1.39 59% 16
Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 1.30 58% 16
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 1.13 58% 15
Stefon Diggs BUF WR 1.05 57% 16
Chris Godwin TB WR 1.03 57% 14
Keenan Allen LAC WR 0.99 57% 15

2021 Top 10 TEs in Fantasy Wins Added

Player Team Pos Wins Added Avg. Expected Win % Games
Mark Andrews BLT TE 1.36 59% 16
Travis Kelce KC TE 1.14 58% 15
George Kittle SF TE 0.66 55% 13
Rob Gronkowski TB TE 0.46 54% 11
Darren Waller LV TE 0.34 53% 10
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 0.33 52% 16
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 0.30 52% 12
Dallas Goedert PHI TE 0.12 51% 15
Dawson Knox BUF TE 0.08 51% 14
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 0.06 50% 16

The raw number of players who actually add value over the course of a season is lower than you might think

Here’s how many players finished as net positive assets (minimum six games) for your fantasy team over the course of the 2021 season:

Position # of Players Who Added Value To Your Fantasy Team
Quarterback 13
Running Back 31
Wide Receiver 43
Tight End 12

This adds up to only 93 players.

Fantasy Wins Added 2021 Distribution FTN

The group of elite is even smaller, as only 19 players elevate your expected win rate to 57% or higher. Compare that to the 50 players who don’t move the needle in either direction and the 250+ players who make your team lose more.

Expected Win % # of Players
60% + 6
57-60% 13
52-57% 51
48-52% 51
42-47% 142
Under 42% 122

Which players were most consistent at being a positive contributor to your team?

<img src="https://d2y4ihze0bzr5g.cloudfront.net/source/2020/Diontae_Johnson_%281%29_%281%29.jpg" alt="

This stat also helps us surface the most consistent fantasy football players. For example, how many weeks did an individual player actually help you — i.e., push your expected win rate over 50%? 

Here are the players who actually helped your team in at least 80% of individual weeks:

Player Team Pos Games # of positive Weeks % of Positive Weeks
Cooper Kupp LA WR 16 15 94%
Davante Adams GB WR 15 14 93%
Deebo Samuel SF WR 15 14 93%
Austin Ekeler LAC RB 15 14 93%
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 15 14 93%
Jonathan Taylor IND RB 16 13 81%
Justin Jefferson MIN WR 16 13 81%
Najee Harris PIT RB 16 13 81%
Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 16 13 81%
Stefon Diggs BUF WR 16 13 81%
Keenan Allen LAC WR 15 12 80%
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 15 12 80%

Which players were neutral in terms of fantasy value last year?

Here’s the long list of players who had little impact on your fantasy season in 2021. You can make the case these players were okay because they didn’t cause you to lose, but you can’t make the case they helped you win.

Player Team Pos Wins Added Avg. Expected Win %
Michael Carter NYJ RB 0.09 51%
Dawson Knox BUF TE 0.08 51%
Chase Edmonds ARZ RB 0.07 51%
Saquon Barkley NYG RB 0.07 51%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB 0.06 51%
Russell Gage ATL WR 0.06 51%
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 0.06 50%
Tyler Boyd CIN WR 0.03 50%
J.D. McKissic WAS RB 0.03 50%
Corey Davis NYJ WR 0.03 50%
Henry Ruggs INA WR 0.02 50%
Noah Fant DEN TE 0.02 50%
Dontrell Hilliard TEN RB -0.01 50%
DeVonta Smith PHI WR -0.01 50%
Kendrick Bourne NE WR -0.02 50%
Rashaad Penny SEA RB -0.03 50%
Zach Ertz ARZ TE -0.03 50%
Mike Gesicki MIA TE -0.04 50%
D’Onta Foreman TEN RB -0.05 49%
Sterling Shepard NYG WR -0.06 49%
Hunter Henry NE TE -0.06 50%
AJ Dillon GB RB -0.07 50%
Michael Gallup DAL WR -0.09 49%

Teams with the most (and fewest) valuable fantasy players in 2021

The Cardinals (5), Buccaneers (5), Bengals (5), Cowboys (5) and Chiefs (5) were the only teams to have at least five players who finished with positive Fantasy Wins Added last year (min. 6 games played).

The Saints, Texans, Jaguars and Giants all only had one player who finished with positive Fantasy Wins Added.

Counting only net positive valuable players (Fantasy Wins Added greater than 0), the Buccaneers were the most valuable fantasy team, followed by the Chargers, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs and Packers.

Interestingly, the Cardinals, despite having a league-leading 5 players with positive Fantasy Wins Added, were actually 14th in collective value of those players.

Solving the fantasy puzzle with Fantasy Wins Added in 2022 and beyond

Each week during the fantasy season, I will be publishing a Fantasy Wins Added article as well as updating our Fantasy Wins Added dashboard (coming soon!) where you can sort and play around with the data yourself.

This new Fantasy Wins Added stats helps you answer the most pressing question in all of fantasy football: “Does this player help me win?” The new stat also properly accounts for all the nuances of the game — including spike weeks and positional value — so you no longer have to wonder how valuable your players actually are.

On with the games! 

Previous Fantasy Football 2022: Training Camp Roundup (9/2) Next Fantasy football draft strategy – How to approach superflex drafts