Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are so many ways to slice and dice the fantasy football cake that it sometimes becomes far too easy to get lost in all the noise.
Enter Fantasy Wins Added, a new metric that simplifies fantasy football analysis and answers the only question that matters at the end of the day: “Does this player help me win?”
We finally have the answer.
I’ll start up top by giving some acknowledgements. Several others in the fantasy football landscape have forayed into fantasy Wins Above Replacement, a metric borrowed from baseball 40 years ago, including Jeff Henderson at FantasyPros and Fantasy Points, Matt DiSorbo at The Fantasy Footballers, and perhaps others (please reach out @LoechnerNFL if I have missed someone).
But while this work has been truly amazing, I felt it relied too heavily on averages and the assumption of replacement-level production. So I worked to find a better way.
The problem with using Fantasy WAR
Again, I think this statistic is fantastic and, directionally, solves the same problem I am addressing. But it didn’t feel complete, so I wanted to expand on the work.
I won’t go into detail of how fantasy WAR is calculated (the links above will show you), but I will highlight a few of the concerns I felt needed to be solved for:
- Get away from rigid averages.
- Get away from assumed rigid team structures.
- Get away from the assumption that we correctly identify replacement-level players, and that those replacement-level players only perform at replacement levels.
As we know, every fantasy football player is prone to explosive swings. Ja’Marr Chase scored 1.3 fantasy points in Week 15 but 55.6 points in Week 17. “Replacement-level” player Rex Burkhead scored 5.7 in Week 15 but 28.9 in Week 16.
Solving WAR problems and inventing straightforward Fantasy Wins Added
To solve for these issues accurately, I did the only thing I could think of: I built a model and simulated every week of the fantasy football season 100,000 times each using varied realistic roster structures and player choices. (I started with 500,000 simulations per week, but it became clear 100,000 was enough.)
I then calculated the win rate of every player from these simulations to find their expected wins added (or lost). For all players not in my realistic simulation player pool — which was generated by using weekly consensus rankings — I applied a win rate formula derived from the simulations so that every player ended up with a unique expected win rate every week based on their production.
Understanding Fantasy Wins Added
Fantasy football is a zero-sum game. You either win or you lose.
It doesn’t matter if you score 200 points and your opponent scores 40, you still only get 1 win. Likewise, if you score 200 points but your opponent gets 201, you still lost 100% of that game.
Since every game has 1 winner and 1 loser, the average win rate is, of course, 50%. So if the simulations show that teams with Cooper Kupp won 70% of the time, it means Kupp added 0.20 wins all my himself (0.70 – 0.50 = 0.20).
Note that Fantasy Wins Added can also go negative if the players’ expected win rate in a given week is below 50%.
Cooper Kupp was the 2021 fantasy MVP based on Fantasy Wins Added
This sample data is based on a 12-team PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 flex.
During the season, FTN will provide Fantasy Wins Added for PPR, half-PPR and non-PPR settings.
Here are your top 20 performers from 2021 based on Fantasy Wins Added:
|
Player |
Team |
Pos |
Wins Added |
Avg. Expected Win % |
Games |
|
Cooper Kupp |
LA |
WR |
2.92 |
68% |
16 |
|
Jonathan Taylor |
IND |
RB |
2.09 |
63% |
16 |
|
Davante Adams |
GB |
WR |
1.94 |
63% |
15 |
|
Deebo Samuel |
SF |
WR |
1.72 |
61% |
15 |
|
Austin Ekeler |
LAC |
RB |
1.70 |
61% |
15 |
|
Justin Jefferson |
MIN |
WR |
1.55 |
60% |
16 |
|
Tyreek Hill |
KC |
WR |
1.39 |
59% |
16 |
|
Mark Andrews |
BLT |
TE |
1.36 |
59% |
16 |
|
Joe Mixon |
CIN |
RB |
1.34 |
58% |
16 |
|
Najee Harris |
PIT |
RB |
1.33 |
58% |
16 |
|
Ja’Marr Chase |
CIN |
WR |
1.30 |
58% |
16 |
|
Josh Allen |
BUF |
QB |
1.21 |
58% |
16 |
|
Leonard Fournette |
TB |
RB |
1.16 |
58% |
14 |
|
Derrick Henry |
TEN |
RB |
1.15 |
64% |
8 |
|
Travis Kelce |
KC |
TE |
1.14 |
58% |
15 |
|
Diontae Johnson |
PIT |
WR |
1.13 |
58% |
15 |
|
Stefon Diggs |
BUF |
WR |
1.05 |
57% |
16 |
|
Chris Godwin |
TB |
WR |
1.03 |
57% |
14 |
|
Keenan Allen |
LAC |
WR |
0.99 |
57% |
15 |
|
Alvin Kamara |
NO |
RB |
0.98 |
58% |
12 |
Kupp absolutely dominated this study, as he personally accounted for nearly 3 full wins throughout 2021.
If that doesn’t seem like a lot, here’s another way to read that stat: Simply having Kupp on your team last year meant your expected win rate was 68% solely because of him. You instantly saw your odds of winning jump from 1-in-2 to 2-in-3 just because of Kupp.
Perhaps the most amazing name on the above list is Derrick Henry, who was the 14th-most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year even though he only played eight games.
How Fantasy Wins Added blows up conventional wisdom around “value”
Let’s use a concrete example of why this stat matters by comparing Joe Mixon and Najee Harris from last year. The chart below shows weeks in which both Mixon and Harris played last year, and each player’s Fantasy Wins Added in those weeks.
In these 15 games, Harris had 12 games with positive Fantasy Wins Added (so 12 games in which he helped you win and three in which he did not). Mixon had a positive Fantasy Wins Added in only nine of the games.
Conventional metrics would show that Mixon was a “fantasy RB1” (top-12) in seven of these 15 games. Harris was an “RB1” in 10 of these games. Yet Mixon was still a better fantasy asset. Over the course of these 15 games, Mixon had more Fantasy Wins Added (1.32 vs. 1.26) despite the fact Harris was far more consistent.
Looking at just total fantasy points scored or “weeks as a RB1” doesn’t tell enough of the story. Najee Harris scored more fantasy points than Joe Mixon last year, but Mixon was the better fantasy player.
The introduction of Fantasy Wins Added revolutionizes the way we should view fantasy value.
2021 Top 10 QBs in Fantasy Wins Added
| Player | Team | Pos | Wins Added | Avg. Expected Win % | Games |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 1.21 | 58% | 16 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 0.88 | 56% | 16 |
| Tom Brady | TB | QB | 0.79 | 55% | 16 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 0.68 | 54% | 16 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | 0.66 | 54% | 15 |
| Kyler Murray | ARZ | QB | 0.58 | 54% | 13 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 0.58 | 54% | 15 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 0.40 | 52% | 16 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 0.36 | 52% | 16 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 0.30 | 52% | 15 |
2021 Top 10 RBs in Fantasy Wins Added
| Player | Team | Pos | Wins Added | Avg. Expected Win % | Games |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 2.09 | 63% | 16 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 1.70 | 61% | 15 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 1.34 | 58% | 16 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 1.33 | 58% | 16 |
| Leonard Fournette | TB | RB | 1.16 | 58% | 14 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 1.15 | 64% | 8 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 0.98 | 58% | 12 |
| James Conner | ARZ | RB | 0.91 | 56% | 14 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | RB | 0.77 | 55% | 15 |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | RB | 0.73 | 56% | 12 |
2021 Top 10 WRs in Fantasy Wins Added
| Player | Team | Pos | Wins Added | Avg. Expected Win % | Games |
| Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 2.92 | 68% | 16 |
| Davante Adams | GB | WR | 1.94 | 63% | 15 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 1.72 | 61% | 15 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 1.55 | 60% | 16 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 1.39 | 59% | 16 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 1.30 | 58% | 16 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 1.13 | 58% | 15 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 1.05 | 57% | 16 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 1.03 | 57% | 14 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 0.99 | 57% | 15 |
2021 Top 10 TEs in Fantasy Wins Added
| Player | Team | Pos | Wins Added | Avg. Expected Win % | Games |
| Mark Andrews | BLT | TE | 1.36 | 59% | 16 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 1.14 | 58% | 15 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 0.66 | 55% | 13 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TB | TE | 0.46 | 54% | 11 |
| Darren Waller | LV | TE | 0.34 | 53% | 10 |
| Dalton Schultz | DAL | TE | 0.33 | 52% | 16 |
| T.J. Hockenson | DET | TE | 0.30 | 52% | 12 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 0.12 | 51% | 15 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 0.08 | 51% | 14 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 0.06 | 50% | 16 |
The raw number of players who actually add value over the course of a season is lower than you might think
Here’s how many players finished as net positive assets (minimum six games) for your fantasy team over the course of the 2021 season:
| Position | # of Players Who Added Value To Your Fantasy Team |
| Quarterback | 13 |
| Running Back | 31 |
| Wide Receiver | 43 |
| Tight End | 12 |
This adds up to only 93 players.
The group of elite is even smaller, as only 19 players elevate your expected win rate to 57% or higher. Compare that to the 50 players who don’t move the needle in either direction and the 250+ players who make your team lose more.
| Expected Win % | # of Players |
| 60% + | 6 |
| 57-60% | 13 |
| 52-57% | 51 |
| 48-52% | 51 |
| 42-47% | 142 |
| Under 42% | 122 |
Which players were most consistent at being a positive contributor to your team?
This stat also helps us surface the most consistent fantasy football players. For example, how many weeks did an individual player actually help you — i.e., push your expected win rate over 50%?
Here are the players who actually helped your team in at least 80% of individual weeks:
| Player | Team | Pos | Games | # of positive Weeks | % of Positive Weeks |
| Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 16 | 15 | 94% |
| Davante Adams | GB | WR | 15 | 14 | 93% |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 15 | 14 | 93% |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 15 | 14 | 93% |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 15 | 14 | 93% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 16 | 13 | 81% |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 16 | 13 | 81% |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 16 | 13 | 81% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 16 | 13 | 81% |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 16 | 13 | 81% |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 15 | 12 | 80% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | 15 | 12 | 80% |
Which players were neutral in terms of fantasy value last year?
Here’s the long list of players who had little impact on your fantasy season in 2021. You can make the case these players were okay because they didn’t cause you to lose, but you can’t make the case they helped you win.
| Player | Team | Pos | Wins Added | Avg. Expected Win % |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | RB | 0.09 | 51% |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 0.08 | 51% |
| Chase Edmonds | ARZ | RB | 0.07 | 51% |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | 0.07 | 51% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 0.06 | 51% |
| Russell Gage | ATL | WR | 0.06 | 51% |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 0.06 | 50% |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 0.03 | 50% |
| J.D. McKissic | WAS | RB | 0.03 | 50% |
| Corey Davis | NYJ | WR | 0.03 | 50% |
| Henry Ruggs | INA | WR | 0.02 | 50% |
| Noah Fant | DEN | TE | 0.02 | 50% |
| Dontrell Hilliard | TEN | RB | -0.01 | 50% |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | -0.01 | 50% |
| Kendrick Bourne | NE | WR | -0.02 | 50% |
| Rashaad Penny | SEA | RB | -0.03 | 50% |
| Zach Ertz | ARZ | TE | -0.03 | 50% |
| Mike Gesicki | MIA | TE | -0.04 | 50% |
| D’Onta Foreman | TEN | RB | -0.05 | 49% |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | -0.06 | 49% |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | -0.06 | 50% |
| AJ Dillon | GB | RB | -0.07 | 50% |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | -0.09 | 49% |
Teams with the most (and fewest) valuable fantasy players in 2021
The Cardinals (5), Buccaneers (5), Bengals (5), Cowboys (5) and Chiefs (5) were the only teams to have at least five players who finished with positive Fantasy Wins Added last year (min. 6 games played).
The Saints, Texans, Jaguars and Giants all only had one player who finished with positive Fantasy Wins Added.
Counting only net positive valuable players (Fantasy Wins Added greater than 0), the Buccaneers were the most valuable fantasy team, followed by the Chargers, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs and Packers.
Interestingly, the Cardinals, despite having a league-leading 5 players with positive Fantasy Wins Added, were actually 14th in collective value of those players.
Solving the fantasy puzzle with Fantasy Wins Added in 2022 and beyond
Each week during the fantasy season, I will be publishing a Fantasy Wins Added article as well as updating our Fantasy Wins Added dashboard (coming soon!) where you can sort and play around with the data yourself.
This new Fantasy Wins Added stats helps you answer the most pressing question in all of fantasy football: “Does this player help me win?” The new stat also properly accounts for all the nuances of the game — including spike weeks and positional value — so you no longer have to wonder how valuable your players actually are.
On with the games!
