NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 235.5 (-105) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the most yards in the league (264.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 57.7%.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.94 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
