Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 235.5 (-105) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have passed for the most yards in the league (264.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 57.7%.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.94 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards