Favorite NFL Week 1 Spread Pick

The return of the NFL’s regular season offers our first chance to water on NFL sides and totals.

For those that are new to sports betting, a standard point-spread wager provides odds at -110, which means you need to wager $110 to gain a $100 profit on your bet. Over the course of the season, you would need to win 52.4 percent of your plays just to break even. Sounds easy, but it’s not.

Early-season lines can offer some of the best values on NFL betting. As the season progresses, the lines get sharper, making it harder to find a weekly betting edge. Always make sure to review the available line at multiple sportsbooks to take advantage of an extra half-point or even full point on your selected game. Our NFL Odds Board makes it easy to review all the lines in just one click.

All picks will be current as of time of publication. Make sure to review the line at your sportsbook of choice before placing a wager.

Week 1 Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers

PIT +2.5 (-110), O/U 40.5, DraftKings Sportsbook

This line opened as San Francisco -3 but was quickly bet down to -2.5, where it has stayed throughout the last two weeks. I believe the wrong team is favored.

Let’s examine this game from a historical betting perspective. This is the classic “Mike Tomlin spot.” As a home underdog, there are few coaches with a better ATS record than the Pittsburgh head coach. In his 16 seasons as Pittsburgh head coach, Mike Tomlin ATS record as a home underdog is an astounding 15-4-3 (78.9%), per BetLabs.

On the flip side, Kyle Shanahan has struggled as San Francisco head coach in these exact situations. Shanahan has failed to cover five of the last seven times he has been a road favorite and has a 3-7 ATS record in this situation since December of 2021. He will now face a Steelers defense that is fully healthy and only allowed 18.3 PPG (seventh-best) at home last season.

The Steelers offense has looked magnificent in the preseason, with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett fully utilizing some of the best offensive weapons of any team in the NFL. Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens bring explosive big-play ability, with veteran Allen Robinson providing matchup problems in the slot. The Steelers are featuring a pair of versatile running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who should exploit a 49ers defense that saw the third-most targets and seventh-most receptions to opposing running backs.

I have concerns about San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy in his first game back from a torn UCL, especially with elite guard Mike McGlinchey now with Denver. I project this game as a pick’em and will gladly take the 2.5 points with a healthy Steelers defense and improved offense weapons.

We are always looking for edges in betting NFL sides, and there haven’t been more profitable edges to exploit than Tomlin’s Steelers as a home underdog.