Fantasy Football Third-Year Breakout Candidates for 2025

The 2023 NFL Draft has already had a handful of players who have not just broken out but have become legitimate fantasy superstars. Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane and Puka Nacua have all ascended to top-20 overall selections in fantasy drafts. The question now: Can any other third-year players truly break out?

The so-called “third-year breakout” is more of a narrative than a true trend, but it’s worth watching for guys who could come through in their third season in the league. Let’s take a closer look.

Third-Year Breakout Candidates for 2025

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers

It turns out Bryce Young is in fact not a bust.

Young began his sophomore campaign a lot like how his rookie year transpired — poorly. Through the first seven weeks of the year, Young posted a 62.3% accuracy rating, recorded one highlight throw, averaged -0.38 EPA/DB and had a 6.2% turnover worthy play rate. It led to the former top overall pick being benched, and questions rose about his NFL future. However, from Week 8 on, the game seemed to finally slow down for Young. Starting there, Young recorded 74.9% accuracy rating, nine highlight throws (ninth), 0.067 EPA/DB and a 1.3% turnover worthy play rate. He did all that while posting the league’s eighth-highest tight coverage rate (31.3%), per the FTN StatsHub.

Entering the 2025 season, the Panthers added what should be a true alpha wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan, who will make things easier for Young. That will be especially evident in the red zone with McMillan’s frame and ball skills. Last season, Young posted the fifth-lowest red zone completion rate in the league (60.9%), as well as the eighth-lowest touchdown rate (18.3%). While I don’t envision Young breaking into the top-10 fantasy scorers at the position, I do expect him to build off the end of last season and enter the discussion among the best young quarterbacks in the league.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

If it weren’t for a torn LCL in Week 4 of last season, Rice would have easily already broken out. In three full games, Rice was the focal point of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. During that span, he posted a target share north of 30%, while averaging nearly 10 targets, 96 receiving yards and 21.6 PPR points per contest. He was also top-five in the NFL in first-read target share in that stretch and was easily on his way to a WR1 finish in fantasy. There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding Rice ahead of the 2025 campaign but as long as he is on the field, I still believe he’ll be the top target in this Kansas City offense, despite the impressive second-half stretch from Xavier Worthy.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs is undoubtedly a good player and perhaps the best wide receiver on the Colts roster. According to the FTN StatsHub, Downs ranked eighth in yards per route run against man coverage last season (2.7), while his 44.2% open separation rate was fifth-best in all of football. We did see some serious splits with Anthony Richardson Sr. and Joe Flacco under center last season, which makes Downs difficult to project going forward. In games alongside Richardson, Downs averaged 6.3 targets, 3.8 receptions, 52.5 yards and 12 PPR points per game. However, with Flacco under center, Downs climbed to 9.4 targets, 7.1 catches, 66.4 yards and 15.5 fantasy points per contest. The current quarterback situation in Indianapolis is still unclear, as Richardson and Daniel Jones will compete for the starting job. But I’m betting on the talent of Downs ahead of year three.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns

I’ve been a fan of Tillman’s since college, so perhaps part of this is simply me not losing hope. But if it weren’t for a season-ending concussion in Week 12, we would have seen a mini-breakout from Tillman just last season. He was buried on the depth chart to start the year but once Cleveland traded Amari Cooper, Tillman took advantage of his opportunity. In Weeks 7-12 (per the FTN Splits Tool), Tillman averaged 8.8 targets, 5.2 receptions, 66.0 receiving yards and 15.4 fantasy points per game. During that span, Tillman ranked third in the league with seven end zone targets. The presence of Jameis Winston was obviously very beneficial for all of fantasy football and now Cleveland will be looking at one of Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. Phew. If Flacco plays the majority of the season, you’ll feel better about Tillman’s prospects. At times, he elevated the Colts’ passing attack last year and when we last saw Flacco in Cleveland, the Browns were actually one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league.