MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Aside from tonight’s divisional matchup between Philadelphia and Washington, Week 10 is complete, and boy was it a doozy. The Bills landed on the wrong side of the game of the year again, while the Buccaneers pulled out a close win to stay in the NFC South race.
We saw some great fantasy performances across the board. What are the key takeaways as we head into Week 11? Find out below.
Jonathan Taylor is back
In the first game under interim head coach Jeff Saturday, we saw the Colts establish the run on the back of Jonathan Taylor, much to the relief of his fantasy managers. Taylor has been a disappointment up until now this season, as he entered the week as RB28 with only 95.6 points in PPR scoring. Well, this week he exploded for an RB1 finish with 24.3 PPR points. This was made possible by his team-leading 22 carries for 147 yards and a score. He also caught both his targets for 16 yards.
Now, this performance was a relief, but was it just a splash in the bucket? I don’t think so, since the Colts ran the ball 30 times in a fairly close game. With Saturday now at the helm, it seems likely that the Colts try to establish the run early and often. Taylor will be a huge benefactor of this, as the Colts don’t have anybody pushing for opportunities behind him currently (Deon Jackson is injured).
Is Christian Watson here to stay?
After battling injuries and being outplayed by fellow rookie Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson saw his share of opportunities in Week 10. This week he saw eight targets in the Packers’ overtime win. Watson caught four of those targets for an amazing 107 yards and three TDs. A majority of this production came on his 58-yard score in the second quarter. Either way, it appears Watson is ready to step up now that the Packers lost Doubs for a while. His eight targets led the team and were more than double the next closest player.
This week he is currently WR3 with 32.7 points. However, his three scores were the majority of these points. We have to temper our expectations going forward, but it’s likely he may have supplanted Allen Lazard and company for the lead role going forward. At the very least, he has carved out a role that will make him fantasy viable.
Rachaad White a league winner?
Leading up to this game, rumors were swirling that Leonard Fournette was unhappy that his role was decreasing – and this week it decreased even more. Rachaad White started the game and went on to lead the team in carries with 22. Fournette sustained a hip injury late in the game, which opened up a few extra touches late for White. With these extra opportunities, we saw White look explosive and decisive en route to 105 yards on the ground. Unfortunately, he was unable to find the end zone this week but was still able to post a top-24 performance in PPR scoring.
With Fournette’s health in question, it’s likely we see White in an increased role going forward. He will have an opportunity to secure the lead role down the stretch, which could make him a league-winner when it comes to fantasy – especially when we factor in his ability to be a dual threat out of the backfield. He already has 135 yards receiving on 20 receptions this season. If White is on your league’s waiver wire, he is a must-add this week.
Cole Kmet has arrived
It is long overdue, but it appears that Cole Kmet has finally arrived. For the second week in a row, he posted a two-touchdown week, becoming only the second player this season to post such a feat (Ja’Marr Chase Weeks 6-7). He is currently the top tight end finisher in PPR scoring with 23.4 points. Over this span, he is also the top tight end with 45.4 points, five more than Travis Kelce (Dallas Goedert has yet to play). This success has been due to a huge increase in targets. He has seen 13 targets in the last two weeks compared to the 20 he had in the previous eight weeks. In those two weeks, he has caught nine passes for 115 yards and four scores.
This touchdown rate seems unsustainable going forward, but the target share is sustainable because he leads the team in targets over the last two weeks. Additionally, Justin Fields has emerged as a true playmaker and has the Bears offense firing on all cylinders. Kmet is likely a top-12 tight end for the foreseeable future, especially with the state of the tight end position this season.
Nico Collins strong in return
After missing the last two weeks due to injury, Nico Collins returned to the Texans in their loss to the Giants this week. He led all Texans pass-catchers in routes run, snaps and targets. His 10 targets equated to a 27% target share, which was the second time in two weeks that he exceeded a 25% target share. Even though he only produced 49 yards (third on the team) on five receptions, he was able to find the end zone which helped him produce a quality fantasy outing. Currently, he is WR18 in PPR scoring with 15.9 points this week.
The biggest takeaway here is that he out-targeted Brandin Cooks, who also returned after a one-week absence. We could be seeing a change of guard in the wide receiver room, which could lead to a potential breakout for Collins down the stretch. Unfortunately, with the state of the Texans, it will be hard to count on Collins weekly, but he could become a quality flex play in plus matchups.
