NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 1 is completed outside of tonight’s revenge game between Denver and Seattle. It will go down as one of the most hectic fantasy weeks in recent memory. We saw multiple overtime games full of missed field goals.
There were many surprise fantasy performances, including Carson Wentz’s top-5 finish with 27.72 points. How many of these surprising performances indicate future value versus a blip on the radar? Below I will break down a few of these Week 1 headlines moving forward.
The Bills are as advertised
Josh Allen and the Bills were everything they have been the last two seasons. Allen posted a 31.38-point performance on the back of four total touchdowns and 353 scrimmage yards. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis were beneficiaries of the passing attack, both finding the end zone once and finishing inside the top-24 PPR scorers. The run game was also impressive. Devin Singletary led the backfield with 8 carries for 48 yards. Zack Moss saw 6 carries but only produced 15 yards. Moving forward, it is clear that no Bills running back is fantasy viable. On the flip side, the offense showed signs that later in the season this could change. It’s likely the only viable fantasy options on a weekly basis are Allen, Diggs and Davis.
Saquon Barkley explodes back on the scene
On Sunday afternoon, Saquon Barkley stole the show. Barkley posted a line of 164 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts while catching 6-of-7 targets for 30 yards. This led to a 33.4 PPR-point week and the RB1 finish. It was clear that Brian Daboll wanted to get the ball into Barkley’s hands in space. On top of this, the Giants offensive line looked improved, especially on the interior, giving Barkley more space to diagnose run lanes. His 24 total touches were 48% of the team’s offensive plays, while his 194 scrimmage yards were 45% of the Giants’ total offensive output. Additionally, he out-touched the next-closest player by 18 touches – Richie James who had six. It’s clear that the 2022 Giants will feature their star running back moving forward.
Michael Thomas silences the critics
Leading up to the season, there was reasonable concern around Michael Thomas, as he had not played an NFL game in over a year and a half. On Sunday, he made it clear that we should stop worrying about him. He saw the second-most targets on the team with eight – one behind Jarvis Landry. With this target share, he posted 57 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions en route to 22.7 PPR points and a WR8 finish. It appears Jameis Winston is going to favor the bigger-bodied Thomas when the Saints get inside the red zone. As a result, he could become a huge fantasy asset going forward. Additionally, this was all in a poor offensive performance by the Saints, who only had 385 total yards and barely squeaked by the Falcons. Imagine what his stat lines will look like once the Saints right the ship in the coming weeks.
Travis Etienne usage concern?
Travis Etienne was a popular breakout pick this offseason. Welp, he disappointed in Week 1. Etienne split work with James Robinson, who is less than nine months removed from an Achilles tear. Robinson saw the bulk of the ground work with 11 attempts opposed to Etienne’s four. However, Etienne was a bit more explosive, averaging over 10 yards per attempt. Etienne also saw four targets, but he dropped a walk-in touchdown. Trevor Lawrence also overshot him on what would have been another walk-in touchdown, so his week could have been much better. He only posted 8.5 PPR points this week, which finished well outside the top-24 PPR scorers. Since the game was close, this type of usage could continue, but this is not what we hoped for. Although I’m not ready to panic, I’m definitely unsettled about Etienne.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are in trouble
As if getting blown out by a division rival wasn’t bad enough, Aaron Rodgers posted one of his worst stat lines of his career this weekend. He went 22-of-34 with only 195 yards passing and 1 interception, resulting in a miserable 3.7 fantasy points. That was only one more point than Jordan Love, who only attempted five passes in garbage time. Rodgers’ lack of chemistry with his wide-receiver group was apparent. Rookie Christian Watson dropped half of his targets while taking the other two for 34 yards. Fellow rookie Romeo Doubs continued to impress, as he caught 4-of-5 targets for 37 yards. However, AJ Dillon stole the show both on the ground and receiving, producing 91 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown on 15 touches – leading the team in both categories. Perhaps the wide receiver to roster in Green Bay all offseason was no one. I think they will improve as the season progresses, but it’s going to be hard to trust any player in a Packers uniform in the coming weeks.
Davante Adams is the King in Vegas
All offseason, we pondered and debated what Davante Adams‘ target share would be in Vegas. Could Derek Carr support a top fantasy wide receiver? The Raiders already had Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller rostered, two highly proven talents. This week, it was pretty clear that the chemistry between Adams and Carr (collegiate teammates) made him his new favorite target. Carr attempted 37 passes in Week 1, of which 17 went the direction of Adams (45%). Adams caught 10 of them for 141 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 30.1 PPR points and a WR3 finish. Adams clearly hasn’t lost a step, and this change of scenery has changed nothing for his outlook. He’s likely in the conversation for the top wide receiver finish in PPR fantasy scoring on a weekly basis.
Who is Greg Dortch?
After Rondale Moore hurt his hamstring late in the week and was ruled out of this matchup, an opportunity opened. The main question was who would step up for the Arizona Cardinals? The answer was Greg Dortch. He led all Cardinal wide receivers with 7 receptions for 63 yards on a team-leading nine targets. Dortch was the only player who was consistently producing for Kyler Murray, as he averaged nine yards per play. It was a breath of fresh air, especially for a team that saw their lead back James Conner only average 2.6 yards per carry. Although this was an impressive Week 1 performance, Dortch is likely only fantasy viable without Moore in the lineup. However, with Moore’s status still up in the air, Dortch should be a primary waiver-wire target this week.
