Fantasy Football Stat of the Day: WRs and first downs

(Leading up to the 2021 NFL season, FTN’s Tyler Loechner will dive into the fantasy football numbers to bring you his Fantasy Stat of the Day, five days a week.)

The Scott Fish Bowl (SFB11) has several unique scoring rules, one of which is that RBs, WRs and TEs get an extra 0.5 points per first down. Monday, we look at which RBs stand to benefit the most from this rule. Today’s Stat of the Day will examine the WRs that should rise to the top with 0.5 points per first down (in addition to 0.5 points per reception).

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Mike Evans (97%) and A.J. Brown (89%) catch a first down on almost every reception

The chart below shows the WRs who had the most first-down receptions in 2020.

player	pos	Targets	Receptions	1st Downs
DeAndre Hopkins	WR	176	118	86
Stefon Diggs	WR	181	132	82
Davante Adams	WR	155	117	77
Allen Robinson	WR	157	104	73
Calvin Ridley	WR	153	90	72
DK Metcalf	WR	137	84	68
Mike Evans	WR	122	69	67
Keenan Allen	WR	155	102	66
Tyler Lockett	WR	139	101	65
Justin Jefferson	WR	132	89	64
A.J. Brown	WR	113	70	62
Tyreek Hill	WR	139	90	59

For starters, the correlation between receptions and first downs among WRs is extremely high. It has an R-squared of 0.97 on a scale of 0-1, with 1 being a perfect match. This means you could sort by receptions and get a similar list.

But looking a little closer at the data tells us which players are above or below average when it comes to collecting enough yards to get a first down. Here are some key items:

DeAndre Hopkins was a monster last year, catching 86 first downs (four more than Stefon Diggs) despite catching 14 fewer passes.
Mike Evans (97%) and A.J. Brown (89%) gained first downs on nearly every reception they had last season. Their reception totals are significantly lower than some others on the list, but they certainly made the most of them.
Justin Jefferson, not possession receiver Adam Thielen, had the most first downs among Vikings WRs last season.
There are many deep threats on this list, so it’s not surprising to see Tyreek Hill’s name as well. But it is a little surprising not to see him higher. There are many close-to-the-line-of-scrimmage gadget-type plays in Hill’s playbook, however.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both made the list, the only teammates in the top 12 to do so.
Keenan Allen is forever underrated.