NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
A second straight loss with 10 or fewer points scored has Rams fans concerned for their team’s chances at a playoff berth, never mind a Super Bowl defense. But even midway through October, some teams have suffered dramatically more difficult schedules than others. And the Rams are that poster child with banked games against the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys, my top three most difficult pass defenses in expected touchdown passes added.
- Expect Matthew Stafford, Allen Robinson and the other Rams skill players to bounce back starting this week. That’s why I have them as starts relative to their Week 6 consensus rankings. And I examine that and much more week’s start and sit column.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Quarterbacks
Start
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Jets (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 8th, +3 versus consensus (11th)
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Matthew Stafford, Panthers at Rams (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 9th, +4 versus consensus (13th)
+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split between the Lions and Rams, both dome teams).
+ Efficiency: Stafford has thrown just 5 touchdowns but has 9.68 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 4.68-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Stafford has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
Russell Wilson, Broncos at Chargers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 versus consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Wilson has thrown just 4 touchdowns but has 9.63 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 5.63-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Ravens (63 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 versus consensus (16th)
+ Volume: Daniel Jones has 41 rushing attempts in five games in 2022, which puts him on a full season pace for 139 rushing attempts which would have tied him for first at his position in 2021 with Jalen Hurts.
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.49 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Zach Wilson, Jets at Packers (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 versus consensus (19th)
+ Efficiency: Zach Wilson ranks second from last at his position with -1.85 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Sit
Joe Burrow, Bengals at Saints (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 12th, -4 versus consensus (8th)
– Venue: Joe Burrow has averaged 4.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Cardinals (77 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 13th, -4 versus consensus (9th)
– Efficiency: Geno Smith has thrown 9 touchdowns but has just 4.81 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 4.19-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Smith has faced the third-hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
Carson Wentz, Commanders at Bears (47 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 versus consensus (15th)
– Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 3.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
– Efficiency: Wentz has thrown 10 touchdowns but has just 8.41 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 1.59-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Running Backs
Start
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins vs. Vikings (85 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 18th, +2 versus consensus (20th)
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Bucs (54 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 versus consensus (21st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Najee Harris for 17.4 carries + targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 16.8 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Harris has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.83 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.83-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Harris ranks sixth from last at his position with -0.73 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys at Eagles (61 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 25th, +2 versus consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Ezekiel Elliott for 17.4 carries + targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 17.6 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Elliott ranks fifth from last at his position with -0.75 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: Elliott has faced the hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.31 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. Jets (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 24th, +2 versus consensus (26th)
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.16 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.16-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars at Colts (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 27th, +1 versus consensus (28th)
+ Efficiency: Travis Etienne has not scored a touchdown but has 1.34 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.34-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Cam Akers, Rams vs. Panthers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 versus consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cam Akers for 16.0 carries + targets this week, 20th at his position (he has averaged 13.3 carries + targets vs. 7.8 for Darrell Henderson since Week 2).
+ Efficiency: Akers has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.03 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.03-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Brian Robinson, Commanders at Bears (47 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +1 versus consensus (34th)
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.52 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. Bills (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 41st, +1 versus consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jerick McKinnon for 6.9 carries + targets this week, 47th at his position (he has averaged 7.2 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: McKinnon has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.41 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.41-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks vs. Cardinals (77 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 45th, +8 versus consensus (53rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting DeeJay Dallas for 8.1 carries + targets this week, 39th at his position (based on a 29.0% projected carry share vs. a 54.5% projected share for Kenneth Walker).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.53 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Sit
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. Bills (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 21st, -3 versus consensus (18th)
– Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 13.7 carries + targets this week, 26th at his position (he has averaged 13.6 carries + targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire has scored 5 touchdowns but has just 3.73 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.27-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
James Robinson, Jaguars at Colts (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 26th, -3 versus consensus (23rd)
– Volume: I am projecting James Robinson for 13.0 carries + targets this week, 28th at his position (he has averaged 10.0 carries + targets vs. 12.0 for Travis Etienne the last two weeks).
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Darrell Henderson, Rams vs. Panthers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 35th, -2 versus consensus (33rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Darrell Henderson for 8.5 carries + targets this week, 37th at his position (he has averaged 7.8 carries + targets vs. 13.3 for Cam Akers since Week 2).
Wide Receivers
Start
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots at Browns (57 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 versus consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jakobi Meyers for 9.3 targets this week, eighth at his position (he has averaged 9.0 targets in 2022 and returned from his knee injury to play his typical 80% of snaps in Week 5).
Adam Thielen, Vikings at Dolphins (85 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 29th, +1 versus consensus (30th)
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.42 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that ninth-biggest 1.42-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs vs. Bills (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +2 versus consensus (34th)
+ Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8.2 targets this week, tied for 20th at his position (he has averaged 7.0 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.54 per game in 2022, third most in football.
George Pickens, Steelers vs. Bucs (54 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 36th, +1 versus consensus (37th)
+ Volume: I am projecting George Pickens for 7.3 targets this week, 30th at his position (he has averaged 7.7 targets since Week 3).
Rondale Moore, Cardinals at Seahawks (77 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 39th, +2 versus consensus (41st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Rondale Moore for 7.0 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he and Greg Dortch have collectively averaged 7.2 targets in their slot starts in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.49 per game in 2022, tied for most in football.
Alec Pierce, Colts vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 42nd, +1 versus consensus (43rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Alec Pierce for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 34th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets since Week 3 and set a season high playing 59% of snaps in Week 5).
+ Efficiency: Pierce has not caught a touchdown but has 1.03 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.03-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Colts (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 45th, +1 versus consensus (46th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 6.8 targets this week, 33rd at his position (he has averaged 8.0 targets in 2022 and returned from his ankle injury to play his typical 80% of snaps in Week 5).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.01 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.01-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Allen Robinson, Rams vs. Panthers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 49th, +4 versus consensus (53rd)
+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split between the Lions and Rams, both dome teams).
+ Efficiency: Allen Robinson has caught just 1 touchdown but has 3.27 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 2.27-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Stafford has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Patriots (57 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 54th, +3 versus consensus (57th)
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 1.57 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth-biggest 1.57-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Sit
Gabe Davis, Bills at Chiefs (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -4 versus consensus (18th)
– Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 5.9 targets this week, tied for 44th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Davis has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.04 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 1.96-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.47 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Drake London, Falcons vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 27th, -2 versus consensus (25th)
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.74 per game in 2022, the most in football.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles vs. Cowboys (61 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 30th, -4 versus consensus (26th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.61 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos at Chargers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -2 versus consensus (31st)
– Volume: I am projecting Jerry Jeudy for 6.6 targets this week, tied for 38th at his position (he has averaged 5.8 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Falcons (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 37th, -4 versus consensus (33rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 5.9 targets this week, tied for 44th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets since Week 3 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback).
– Volume: Aiyuk has seen just six deep targets of more than 20 air yards since the start of 2021 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, and only three of those have been catchable.
Tight Ends
Start
Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 7th, +17 versus consensus (24th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Pitts can play after missing Week 5 with a hamstring injury)
+ Volume: I am projecting Kyle Pitts for 6.6 targets this week, sixth at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Pitts has not caught a touchdown but has 0.66 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.66-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.74 per game in 2022, the most in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 4.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second fewest in football.
Irv Smith, Vikings at Dolphins (85 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 versus consensus (12th)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Cardinals (77 degrees and sunny)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 versus consensus (18th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 15.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
Sit
Hayden Hurst, Bengals at Saints (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 12th, -3 versus consensus (9th)
– Opponent: The Saints have allowed 5.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth fewest in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets at Packers (44 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 versus consensus (14th)
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. Bengals (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 18th, -7 versus consensus (11th)
– Efficiency: Taysom Hill has run in 5 touchdowns but has just 0.92 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that league-leading 4.08-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Hill ranks second with 1.45 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 6 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 versus consensus (19th)
– Efficiency: Mo Alie-Cox has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.95 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth highest 1.05-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
