Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 14 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 14 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Lions vs. Vikings (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 9th, +2 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Venue: Jared Goff has averaged 1.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Jaguars (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 15th, +4 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Russell Wilson, Broncos vs. Chiefs (55 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 19th, +3 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Sam Darnold, Panthers at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +2 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Panthers (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 11th, -2 vs. consensus (9th)
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Eagles (41 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain or snow will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Tyler Huntley, Ravens at Steelers (44 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Tom Brady, Bucs at 49ers (51 degrees with moderate winds and a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 16 touchdowns but has 23.17 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 7.17-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Mike White, Jets at Bills (41 degrees with a 75% chance of rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 20th, -2 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 75% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Mike White has thrown just 3 touchdowns but has 4.73 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.73-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Mac Jones, Patriots at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 21st, -1 vs. consensus (20th)
– Venue: Mac Jones has averaged 2.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Efficiency: Mac Jones has thrown just 7 touchdowns but has 10.36 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 3.36-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Kenny Pickett, Steelers vs. Ravens (44 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -2 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Brock Purdy, 49ers vs. Bucs (51 degrees with moderate winds and a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the 49ers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 14 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Ravens (44 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 15th, +2 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Najee Harris ranks 12th from last at his position with -0.70 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting D’Onta Foreman for 18.2 carries + targets this week, 13th at his position (he has averaged 20.3 carries + targets since the team traded Christian McCaffrey before Week 7).
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Latavius Murray, Broncos vs. Chiefs (55 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 21st, +1 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Latavius Murray for 17.5 carries + targets this week, 14th at his position (he has averaged 17.5 carries + targets the last two weeks since the team released Melvin Gordon).
Michael Carter, Jets at Bills (41 degrees with a 75% chance of rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 30th, +17 vs. consensus (47th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Carter will return from his ankle injury, but Carter is already off the injury report as of Wednesday)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Carter for 11.6 carries + targets this week, tied for 30th at his position (he saw 8 carries + targets when he last played in Week 12 but left early in the third quarter with an ankle injury).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 75% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers vs. Dolphins (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +1 vs. consensus (44th)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs at Broncos (55 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 20th, -2 vs. consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Gus Edwards, Ravens at Steelers (44 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 34th, -2 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Opponent: The Steelers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Jordan Mason, 49ers vs. Bucs (51 degrees with moderate winds and a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 45th, -2 vs. consensus (43rd)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the 49ers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Week 14 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. Chiefs (55 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jerry Jeudy for 7.4 targets this week, tied for 23rd at his position (he has averaged 7.3 targets in seven healthy games from Weeks 1-8, seems back healthy now, and should see a target share increase with Courtland Sutton unlikely to play with a hamstring injury).
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings at Lions (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 29th, +1 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.50 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.50-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Titans (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 31st, +2 vs. consensus (33rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 7.4 targets this week, tied for 23rd at his position (he has averaged 7.8 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 3.78 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third highest 2.78-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Mack Hollins, Raiders at Rams (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 38th, +1 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Mack Hollins for 6.9 targets this week, tied for 29th at his position (he has averaged 7.3 targets since Hunter Renfrow went on injured reserve before Week 10).
Van Jefferson, Rams vs. Raiders (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +1 vs. consensus (44th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Van Jefferson for 6.9 targets this week, tied for 29th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets and played 96% of snaps with both Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson out the last two weeks).
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens at Steelers (44 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 49th, +2 vs. consensus (51st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Demarcus Robinson for 5.7 targets this week, 43rd at his position (he has averaged 6.6 targets since Week 8).
+ Efficiency: Robinson has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.54 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.54-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Terrace Marshall, Panthers at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 53rd, +3 vs. consensus (56th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Terrace Marshall for 5.6 targets this week, tied for 44th at his position (he has averaged 4.8 targets since the team traded Robbie Anderson before Week 7).
+ Efficiency: Marshall has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.45 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.45-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs at Broncos (55 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 27th, -3 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6.1 targets this week, 39th at his position (he has averaged 6.5 targets in 2022 but just 3.5 the last two weeks since returning from a concussion).
Joshua Palmer, Chargers vs. Dolphins (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 30th, -3 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Joshua Palmer for 5.9 targets this week — assuming Mike Williams plays — tied for 40th at his position (he averaged 6.7 targets in Weeks 1-6 when he and Williams played together but could have both Williams and Keenan Allen playing with him for the first full game this season).
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -4 vs. consensus (28th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jakobi Meyers for 5.9 targets this week, tied for 40th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets since he returned from a knee injury in Week 5).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Darius Slayton, Giants vs. Eagles (41 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 37th, -3 vs. consensus (34th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain or snow will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: James Bradberry and Darius Slay have allowed just 44% and 51% catch rates on their targets this season, tied lowest and fourth lowest among cornerbacks with 300 or more routes in coverage.
Elijah Moore, Jets at Bills (41 degrees with a 75% chance of rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 54th, -6 vs. consensus (48th)
– Volume: I am projecting Elijah Moore for 3.9 targets this week, tied for 59th at his position (he has averaged 2.6 targets since Week 7).
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 75% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 14 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Raiders (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 9th, +2 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 6.7 targets this week, seventh at his position (he has averaged 6.5 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 2.97 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.97-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have allowed 11.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins at Chargers (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Austin Hooper, Titans vs. Jaguars (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Jonnu Smith, Patriots at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 21st, +6 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jonnu Smith for 2.9 targets this week, tied for 25th at his position (he has averaged 2.6 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 15.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Evan Engram, Jaguars at Titans (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: I am projecting Evan Engram for 4.2 targets this week, tied for 14th at his position (he has averaged 4.9 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Hunter Henry, Patriots at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 13th, -1 vs. consensus (12th)
– Volume: I am projecting Hunter Henry for 3.7 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (he has averaged 3.3 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 15.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Jets (41 degrees with a 75% chance of rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 14th, -1 vs. consensus (13th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 75% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets at Bills (41 degrees with a 75% chance of rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 vs. consensus (14th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 75% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 6.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fifth fewest in football.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Panthers (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Daniel Bellinger, Giants vs. Eagles (41 degrees with a 55% chance of light rain or snow)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 19th, -3 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of light rain or snow will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Daniel Bellinger has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.88 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.12-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans vs. Jaguars (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 20th, -3 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: I am projecting Chigoziem Okonkwo for 2.9 targets this week, tied for 25th at his position (he has averaged 2.9 targets since Week 7 when he first reached his current standard of about 40-45% snap shares).
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Cade Otton, Bucs at 49ers (51 degrees with moderate winds and a 55% chance of light rain)
Week 14 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -1 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of light rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 6.6 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third fewest in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
