Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 3
Skylar Thompson Had an 18.9% Checkdown Rate in 2022
In seven games of action in 2022, Thompson wasn’t very aggressive throwing the football, sporting a near 19% checkdown rate. For reference, that would have ranked fourth among qualified signal callers last season. This could bode well for De’Von Achane, who currently ranks third among all running backs with a 17.3% target share on the season. He’s also lined up either out wide or in the slot for 23 snaps, as he’s become a focal point of the Miami passing attack. Expect that to continue with Thompson under center this week, especially against a Seattle defense that is coughing up 5.0 receptions and 7.0 targets per game to opposing backfields to start the year.
11.3% of Runs Against the Rams Have Been Stuffed at or Behind the Line of Scrimmage
That is the third-lowest rate in all of football, as Los Angeles is giving up plenty of successful runs. The Rams are also allowing a healthy 2.4 yards before contact per attempt, the fifth-most in the league, while just over 14% of the runs against them have gained 10-plus yards. This bodes well for Jordan Mason to keep the good times going, especially with how banged up San Francisco’s offense suddenly is. Through the first two weeks of the year, Mason has logged 81% of the snaps, 76.2% of the carries and 45.5% of the overall touches for the 49ers.
Derek Carr Is Averaging 6.5 Pass Attempts Per Game with Pre-Snap Motion
The change in New Orleans’ offense has been the talk of both the NFL and fantasy football worlds to start the year. Forty-plus points in consecutive games is pretty impressive, and Klint Kubiak’s uptick in motion and play-action has played a massive role. Carr is currently averaging 6.5 pass attempts per game with pre-snap motion, way up from the 1.8 attempts per game he averaged a season ago. As a team, the Saints have jumped from bottom-three in use of pre-snap motion last year to top-three so far this season. Now they have a home matchup with a Philadelphia defense that is allowing 10.3 yards per attempt (fourth most) and 7.8 yards after the catch per attempt (second most) off plays with pre-snap motion to start the season. Look for Carr and company to keep it going Sunday.
Brock Bowers Leads all Tight Ends in Targets Per Game (8.5)
It has been a pretty slow start for the tight end position this season, but interestingly enough, the rookie tight end hasn’t received the memo. Bowers has been great through two weeks, leading all tight ends in targets per game (8.5), also ranking third at the position in target share (21.3%). He’s averaging an impressive 0.36 fantasy points per snap, which is even more impressive when you consider he hasn’t even scored a touchdown yet. A matchup against the worst team in all of football (Carolina) could easily be the spot where Bowers scores his first career touchdown.
George Kittle Has a 22.8% Target Share with Deebo Samuel off the Field Since 2022
Kittle is now dealing with a hamstring injury, but if he can suit up Sunday, a huge game is likely. For starters, since 2022, Kittle’s target share jumps from 16.2% with Samuel on the field to 22.8% when he is off the field. His target per route run rate also climbs to a very impressive 27%. And when you add the fact that Christian McCaffrey is still sidelined, suddenly a usually very crowded 49ers offense is set to become very, very concentrated. The efficiency is always there with Kittle, but the targets are inconsistent. If he is active Sunday, that won’t be the case.
