Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 11
1. Calvin Ridley Has a 37% First-Read Target Share Since Week 6
The Titans had their bye in Week 5, and during that time off, the coaching staff talked about the importance of getting Ridley the football more. And between that and the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has become a target machine during that span. Since Week 6, Ridley is averaging 9.8 targets, 67.0 yards and just under 15 fantasy points per game. His average target share during those games is 32.2%, and only CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase have more total targets during that stretch. Ridley has also accounted for 37% of Tennessee’s first-read targets, as the Titans have done a better job of getting him more layup looks in the passing game, whether that be screens, crossing routes, etc. Ridley should continue to see 8-12 targets going forward, especially this week against a blitz-heavy Minnesota defense. And, oh by the way, Ridley has a 30% target share against the blitz this season.
2. 17.6% of Russell Wilson’s Pass Attempts Have Traveled 20-Plus Air Yards
That is the fifth-highest rate among all qualified quarterbacks since Wilson took over as the Steelers starter in Week 7. During that same span, Wilson also ranks first in intended air yards per pass attempt (9.9) and sixth in end zone passes (13), despite having a bye week. Just over 15% of Wilson’s pass attempts have gone into the end zone, which has helped him rank as the QB11 in fantasy points per game since becoming the starter. He is in a great spot to keep it going this week, facing a vulnerable Baltimore pass defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.6), as well as the most completions of 20-plus air yards (23).
3. The Chiefs Are Allowing the Second-Most Targets Per Game to Opposing Tight Ends (8.3)
Kansas City’s defense has once again been elite, but they have struggled to defend tight ends over the middle of the field. Tight ends are averaging the second-most targets (8.3), most receptions (6.7) and second-most fantasy points (16.4) per game against the Chiefs on the year. They are also allowing 11.4 targets per game to opposing pass-catchers from the slot, the second most in the league. Dalton Kincaid appears unlikely to play this weekend, which means Dawson Knox enters our lives as a very viable streaming tight end. He played over 70% of the snaps after Kincaid suffered his injury last week and with Keon Coleman out and Amari Cooper banged up, Knox could be looking at a relatively large role come Sunday.
4. Anthony Richardson Is Sporting the Second-Lowest Checkdown Rate in the NFL (6.5%)
It is a massive shift from Joe Flacco, who was checking the ball down 16.7% of the time, a top-five rate in the league. With the Colts going back to Richardson at quarterback, this offense is going to look different. We’ll see more shotgun formations, less passes to the running backs and more passes deep down the field. Richardson leads the league in percentage of passes traveling 20-plus air yards this season (23.3%). It’ll be interesting to see what the target distribution looks like from the Colts this weekend.
5. The Raiders Are Allowing a 45.7% Success Rate on Outside Zone Runs
That is good (or bad) for the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, which makes this a pretty advantageous matchup for De’Von Achane. Just over 31.4% of Achane’s rush attempts this season have come off outside zone concepts, the 10th-highest rate in football. He’s also just been much better with Tua Tagovailoa under center this season, averaging 7.0 targets, 6.6 receptions and 23.8 PPR points per game. Achane has dominated the work as of late, as Raheem Mostert saw zero carries last week. And since a third quarter fumble against the Bills in Week 9, Mostert has just one total carry. Look for Achane to bounce back at home against a weak Raiders run defense.
