Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
The Chargers Rank 5th in Neutral Script Pass Rate Since Week 6 (60.8%)
For much of the season so far, the Chargers have been a run-centric offense, which surprised no one considering the moves they made in the offseason. During the first five weeks of the season, this team ranked 28th in neutral script pass rate (49.1%). But following a bye, things have changed. Since Week 6, the Chargers have climbed all the way to fifth in the NFL in neutral script pass rate (60.8%). During that span, Justin Herbert is averaging an improved 33 pass attempts per game. It has helped Ladd McConkey see at least six targets in all but one game this season, while sporting a team-high 27% target share. With this uptick in passing volume, McConkey continues to climb in the rankings and should be viewed as a top-30 wideout for the time being.
Joe Flacco Has a 16.3% Checkdown Rate This Season
It is the fourth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks this season. For comparison, Anthony Richardson’s checkdown rate of 6.5% is the second lowest in football. The Colts offensive scheme has changed with Flacco under center, as Indianapolis has operated with more 12 personnel and less out of the shotgun. We know what Josh Downs does with Flacco at quarterback, but with the massive uptick in checkdowns, we have also seen Jonathan Taylor see more pass game usage, averaging 4.5 targets per game alongside Flacco. That could be very noteworthy ahead of a matchup with the Bills, a team allowing the most targets (8.4), receptions (6.8) and receiving yards (55.7) per game to opposing backfields. Since returning from his ankle injury, Taylor has logged 76.5% of the snaps, handling 73.3% of the Colts’ rush attempts. Expect a bounceback performance this weekend.
17.5% of Russell Wilson’s Pass Attempts Have Been in the End Zone
That is the highest rate in the NFL since he took over at quarterback for the Steelers in Week 7. During that same span, Wilson also ranks fifth in fantasy points per dropback (0.63) and fifth in average depth of target (10.0 yards), while also averaging three pass attempts off go routes per game. Wilson’s play (and style of play) are huge reasons to buy into George Pickens going forward, especially when you consider he has scored around 20 fewer fantasy points than expected over the course of the season. Pickens is 12th in expected fantasy points on the year but 27th in overall points at the wide receiver position.
Justin Jefferson Has a 33.6% Target Share Against Man Coverage
It is one of the highest rates in all of football, as, to no one’s surprise, Jefferson continues to play the wide receiver position better than anyone. He’ll take that massive volume into a matchup with the Jaguars, who are deploying man coverage at the third-highest rate in all of football. Jefferson is also averaging 11.1 yards per target and 3.9 yards per route run (second most) against man coverage this season. Jacksonville will have no answers for Jefferson Sunday.
The Chiefs Are Allowing 50.9 Rushing Yards Per Game to Opposing Backfields
Keep in mind that isn’t 50.9 rushing yards per game to opposing starting running backs. That is 50.9 yards per game to entire backfields. Kansas City’s run defense has been other-worldly this season, despite facing the likes of Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins and Jordan Mason. No one has eclipsed 60 rushing yards against the Chiefs this season, who are also coughing up the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt (1.8) and the second-lowest explosive rush rate (7.7%). Javonte Williams’ usage, especially at the goal line, has been far too inconsistent each week, while the matchup is as bad as it gets. He’s an easy player to avoid this week.
