Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 1 is typically going to be one of the shorter weeks on the fantasy football injury report, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some important players that could be missing this week. Let’s get right to it and figure out who could be out of the lineup.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
(DFS salary: $4,800 DK, $5,300 FD)
We’re going to look at another tight end, because there is another first-round player who is in danger of missing Week 1. It appears that receiver Cooper Kupp is all but out for Week 1. The Rams can claim he’s “day-to-day” all they want, but Kupp was in Minnesota Monday with a hamstring specialist. We only saw one game with Matthew Stafford under center without Kupp but with Tyler Higbee, and Higbee was targeted eight times. Folks will look to Van Jefferson, Puka Nacua and possibly Tutu Atwell in the potential absence of Kupp. However, Higbee is going to be a primary target in this offense and he’s too cheap on each site. Higbee won’t be sneaky but that doesn’t mean he won’t be productive.
Deon Jackson, Indianapolis Colts
($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD)
I believe Deon Jackson is best served on DK since he could see some targets and is cheaper, but I don’t love this situation overall. Jonathan Taylor is on the PUP list, so he’s out for at least four weeks. Not only do we have a mix of Jackson, Evan Hull and potentially Zack Moss, but the quarterback is much different. Gone is Matt Ryan from 2022. Anthony Richardson is an elite athlete and is more than willing to run the ball. The check downs may not be there for Jackson and almost half of his scrimmage yards came from receptions last year. Hull also brings some strong pass-catching chops so this backfield is as clear as mud. Jackson is cheap enough to gamble on, but this offense could truly be a mess for running backs until Taylor is back in action. If Moss is active for this game, he would likely be the leading candidate for the lead role but we’ll have to wait and see if he can play.
Update: Moss has now practiced through the week and is listed as questionable, but it seems as though he’s going to play. I believe he might be the best option in the backfield, but I’m likely to steer clear of the backs for the Colts. We have better options for DFS this week, even with the salary included.
Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos
($3,000 DK, $4,700 FD)
We’re not sure of the status of Jerry Jeudy, but if he’s out, Marvin Mims is going to be heavy chalk. He’s the minimum on DK and the Broncos would be without Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler and Jeudy. That would leave them with Courtland Sutton and they would likely bring up Phillip Dorsett from the practice squad. Past that, the receiver room is fairly bleak. Denver traded up in this past draft to take Mims and he posted a 4.38-40-yard dash, so just one big play could have Mims smash value. Vegas gave up the 11th-most yards on deep passes in 2022 and no quarterback threw more deep attempts than Russell Wilson. We shouldn’t bank on that again with Sean Payton as the head coach but I’m sure he can cook up ways to get the ball to Mims and let the speed do the work.
Update: Jeudy has been limited all week and is now listed as questionable.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD)
Terry McLaurin has been dealing with a turf toe and is not guaranteed to play this week. Jahan Dotson showed a nose for the end zone in his rookie season, scoring seven times on his 61 targets. Touchdowns are notoriously volatile but Dotson showed a lot and should be taking a leap this season if quarterback Sam Howell can be solid-to-good. Dotson was 16th in yards per reception despite being just 77th in receptions and 78th in catchable target rate. The Arizona Cardinals are a mess by design and Washington’s offense could look very good right out of the gate.
Update: McLaurin is full go for Sunday, which means we get to play Dotson in the same great matchup at much lower rostership.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
($5,500 DK, $7,000 FD)
It does look like San Francisco could be without star tight end George Kittle when they take on Pittsburgh this week. He’s dealing with an adductor strain and there’s not exactly a tight end to step in and take his role in the receiving game. Instead, per the FTN splits tool, Deebo Samuel has seen a bump in targets, receptions and yards –
Now, the points per game are virtually the same but some of that is just touchdown variance. Samuel was 12th in target rate and eighth in YAC, so I’ll take my chances that he gets the ball in his hands more turns into points in our lineups.
Update: Kittle is listed as questionable – there is not a lot of clarity on his status so far.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD)
I’m prepared to be overweight on Raheem Mostert this week since Jeff Wilson was put on IR, guaranteeing he’s going to miss at least four games. The touches per game last week were all over the board as he and Wilson split time for the Dolphins. However, Mostert posted a season where he accounted for 1,093 total yards on 212 touches. He finished 26th in yards created and evaded tackles, so he can be a fantasy asset. That’s especially true at this salary since his main competition for touches is electric rookie De’Von Achane and Salvon Ahmed. Both of those backs are recovering from different injuries so Mostert should be nearly locked into 15 touches or more in a game that has the highest total on the main slate.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD)
Arizona has listed wide receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Zach Ertz as questionable, and we know this team is not trying to win this year. We should approach their decision-making as such, so there would be a real chance they sit players out. If either of those players misses the game, James Conner is going to get an unreal workload, both running and pass-catching. Conner was already a strong play for his salary but he would see more targets and tight end Trey McBride would have a clearer path to plenty of work as well. The receiver room would be down to Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson. Normally, this isn’t a situation I’d worry about, but we’ll see.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
($3,000 DK/$4,700 FD)
Starting tight end Mark Andrews hasn’t practiced in full all week and is listed as questionable. I’d still lean toward him playing but the Ravens are also double-digit favorites against the Texans. If they opted to sit him to make sure he’s 100%, Isaiah Likely would become popular in a hurry. To be very clear, comparing this season to last for Baltimore is far from an apples-to-apples comparison. They have new receivers and a new offensive coordinator who is there for a brand-new approach. However, Likely would still inherit the TE1 role, and last year, that was a significant boost when Andrews missed time –
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
($3,200 DK/$4,500 FD)
In general, I’m not champing at the bit to target a rookie receiver attached to a rookie quarterback in a game with a total of under 40 points. The exception comes into play with Mingo since DJ Chark is out, Adam Thielen is questionable and the Carolina receiving room is extremely thin. If Thielen is out, they have just five receivers on the roster and Mingo is one of the top three. In the preseason, Mingo ran a route on every single dropback for quarterback Bryce Young and earned a 40% target share. Granted, preseason is not the regular season but there are a multitude of receiver values and Mingo might slide through the cracks for DFS and he’s a worthy stash for season-long leagues as well.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
($4,400 DK/$5,00 FD)
Receiver Christian Watson has been ruled out for Week 1 and is listed as “week-to-week” with a hamstring issue, so Romeo Doubs is the No. 1 in the Green Bay offense until he comes back. Doubs put together a solid rookie campaign last year with 425 yards but got underrated since Watson exploded late in the year. We should expect him to get a lot of work but rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave are going to offer some serious salary savings for our DFS lineups this weekend. The Packers are likely concentrated on this trio along with a little bit of extra toward running back Aaron Jones. Reed and Musgrave really open things up and Musgrave ran a route on over 80% of the dropbacks for quarterback Jordan Love in the preseason. That would be an incredible benchmark for a rookie tight end.
Terron Armstead, Miami Dolphins
If you find yourself wondering why there isn’t a salary, it’s because Armstead plays left tackle for the Dolphins. However, he was a vital piece to that offense in 2022 –
Now, this metric does come with a grain of salt because it’s only a 51-snap sample size. It also came on the road against San Francisco, who had an excellent defense in 2022. The fear is the Chargers have a fearsome pass rushing duo in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, both of whom have one job – hit the quarterback. I’m not moving off my Dolphins totally, but I am at least mildly concerned about this loss on the offensive line.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
($5,100 DK/$6,800 FD)
This is going to be chalk that I fully avoid in DFS, because it does look as though Jamaal Williams will have the backfield mostly to himself. Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three weeks and rookie Kendre Miller is questionable but has not practiced. Williams will get work but the matchup is among the worst in the league based on last season and he could always get sniped at the goal line by someone like Taysom Hill. You’re likely going to need him for cash games, but I would tread lightly everywhere else.
Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants
($400 DK/$7,500 FD)
The salary on DK sticks out for Daniel Bellinger because his game takes place Sunday night, which is an inherent issue. Starting tight end Darren Waller popped up on the injury report Friday, which is usually a very poor sign. Waller is dealing with a tight hamstring and he’s not been the picture of health in his career, so it’s easy to get concerned. In a perfect world, we’ll have some clarity on Sunday morning. If we don’t Bellinger would do in a pinch since tight end is not easy to fill. Seemingly every top tight end is dealing with something but the Giants offense has been designed around Waller. In the limited preseason action he got, he was a target magnet, and the New York receiving room is made up of a lot of similar players for their skill set.
