Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We continue our Fantasy Crossroads series with a look at two running backs who have been heading in opposite directions in recent seasons. Saquon Barkley is an all-world talent, but bad injury luck has kept him sidelined or at less than 100% more often than not in recent seasons. David Montgomery, meanwhile, has been a very consistent fantasy running back over the last few seasons.
So which running back should be on your radar for 2022?
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
The Case for Montgomery
During his three seasons in the NFL, David Montgomery has seen a ton of volume. In that span, he is averaging nearly 240 carries per season, and that workload was fantastic once again this past season. Montgomery averaged over 20 touches per game and despite missing four contests, he still finished the year ninth among all running backs in carries (225), 10th in snaps (258) and 13th in rushing touchdowns (7). His weekly workload was very reliable even with the four missed games. That volume should remain intact this season, while we have also seen Montgomery take a step forward in the passing game. He ranked 13th among all running backs in routes run last season (289), averaging 22.3 pass routes per contest. And in 2020, only pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic ran more routes at the running back position than Montgomery (391). 20 touches should be the floor for Montgomery, and although he plays on a bad Chicago team that could be trailing very often, he is suddenly gamescript-independent.
Montgomery is also the unquestioned goal-line running back for this team, scoring seven times and ranking sixth in carries from inside the 5-yard line (12) last season. And that was despite playing on a Bears offense that averaged the 10th-fewest yards (29.3) and seventh-fewest points (1.62) per drive in the NFL, while Chicago also scored points on just 31.5% of drives, the seventh-lowest rate in football. Yes, the Bears project to be a bad offense again but they were already bad last season and Montgomery still saw plenty of scoring chances. Chicago also called run 40.8% of the time in the red zone last season, good for the 10th-highest rate in football.
The Case Against Montgomery
While the volume has been very fantasy-friendly, the efficiency hasn’t exactly been great. Montgomery only recorded six explosive runs last season, tied for 28th among running backs. He was also barely inside the top 30 in missed tackles forced (33), while only breaking a tackle once every 14.1 attempts, which ranked 25th in the NFL. Montgomery has also ranked outside of the top-30 running backs in yards per touch in each of the last two seasons. He also plays behind an atrocious offensive line that likely won’t do him many favors. In 2020, the Bears generated 1.35 yards before contact per attempt, which was the eighth-lowest rate in football, while 49% of Montgomery’s carries were stuffed at the line of scrimmage. That was the 11th-highest rate among all running backs with at least 70 carries. Luckily the volume doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, because it is difficult to project Montgomery to be anything but slightly below average on a per-carry basis.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
The Case for Barkley
Saquon Barkley burst onto the scene during his rookie season in 2018, scoring 385.8 fantasy points, edging out Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in fantasy.
He’s scored just over 408 fantasy points in the three years since.
Obviously, injuries have played a huge factor, as Barkley has missed 18 combined games over the last two seasons, 21 over the last three. It wasn’t just his 2020 ACL tear — Barkley has also dealt with multiple ankle injuries. While his play has definitely fallen off since his sophomore season, his situation in New York in 2022 is easily the best it has been. The Giants hired a new head coach in Brian Daboll, an innovative and creative playcaller who helped unlock the Buffalo Bills offense over the last few seasons. It is a massive upgrade over Jason Garrett and his archaic offensive system. Daboll recently said that as an offensive playcaller, “You find a way to get the best players the football.” And despite his rough stretch over the last few years, it’s still pretty certain that Barkley is this team’s skill player. Daboll is going to find multiple ways to get the football in Barkley’s hands, meaning he won’t be strictly used as a running back. Meanwhile, the offensive line has been improved, too. In 2021, the Giants generated just 1.36 yards before contact per rush attempt, which was the ninth-lowest mark in football. And as for Barkley, a whopping 51% of his rush attempts were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this past season, which was the eighth-highest rate among all running backs with at least 70 carries. Fortunately, the Giants did address the offensive line this offseason, adding Evan Neal in the draft and signing Jon Feliciano. Getting Barkley out and space will be an easy reminder of just how incredible of a football player he is.
Barkley’s competition for touches is minimal to say the least. Behind him on New York’s depth chart is only Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell and Antonio Williams. Breida has yet to reach the 20-carry mark in a game throughout his career, while Brightwell and Williams have 12 career carries combined. If Barkley can stay healthy, it is entirely possible he logs 85% of the snaps and handles 23-25 touches per game. And considering his touches will be of higher value under this new regime, that is very exciting.
The Case Against Barkley
It is pretty obvious, but after missing 18 games over the last two seasons, the case against Barkley is health. That said his ankle injury last season was incredibly fluky, so I’m not that concerned. Still, the fact that he hasn’t been anywhere close to the same player in about two years now can be tough to overlook. And while I fully expect Daboll to turn this offense around, it is still very possible that the Giants ceiling is a league-average offense, though even that would still be a massive step forward.
The Verdict: Saquon Barkley
This was closer a few weeks ago, but Barkley should be the clear answer here. He’s still just 25 years old, has immense talent, and even if Daboll can’t fix things in New York’s offense, this Giants offense should still be better than Chicago’s. Barring any injuries, Barkley could easily return to top-five status among running backs in 2022.
