Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
Rookies? Rookies.
For the first time in this ADP series, we will discuss two players who haven’t played a single snap in the NFL. Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne are both extremely talented running backs who may not have featured roles right out of the gate, but certainly have the ability to earn more playing time as the year progresses. Etienne and Williams are being selected in the middle rounds of drafts and like we see with many rookie running backs — both could start off slow but become league winners down the stretch.
The case for Javonte Williams
Williams was the third running back selected in April’s NFL Draft, but make no mistake: He could have easily been the first.
With elite tackle-breaking ability, Williams is an outstanding running back prospect. In 2020 at North Carolina, Williams averaged an absurd 4.59 yards after contact per attempt, per PFF, an absurd number. He also averaged 0.48 missed tackles forced per attempt, which easily led the nation, while forcing a total of 76 missed tackles. Williams shared the UNC backfield with Michael Carter, forming a very formidable duo. As a result, Williams only had two games with 20 carries last season, averaging just over 14.2 per game. However, Williams is a player who should be able to handle an every-down workload at any level of football, as he has the size to handle 20-plus carries, while remaining a positive in both pass protection and the receiving game.
The Denver Broncos traded up to select Williams in the second round of the draft, meaning — like his time with the Tar Heels — he’ll likely be part of a split backfield. Williams will join Melvin Gordon to help carry the load for the Broncos, and we can use last year to get a decent idea of what the distribution of carries might look like. In games Phillip Lindsay played last season, Gordon averaged 12.3 carries per game, while Lindsay averaged 10.7. More than likely, offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is going to continue using two running backs in his offense, and while Williams is a rookie, Shurmur has given rookie running backs meaningful work in the past. Right out of the gate, Williams is going to get flex-worthy volume for fantasy, and I believe this Denver team is going to run the ball quite a bit this season.
In 2020, the Broncos were 12th in the NFL in rushing play percentage (42.9%) but that number can easily rise in 2021. Denver’s defense was missing key players over the course of the entire season and as a result, this unit allowed 27.9 points per game, good for the eighth-most in the league. However, the Broncos have added a ton of talent to an already solid unit, bringing in Kyle Fuller, Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby in the secondary. Meanwhile, Von Miller will be back after missing the entire 2020 campaign, which will obviously help the pass rush. Last year, opposing offenses scored on 44.6% of drives against Denver, the ninth-highest rate in football, which led to the team playing from behind much more often than they’d like. I see the Broncos with much more positive gamescripts this season and given the uncertainty at the quarterback position, Shurmur and company will want to run the football.
Of course, the upside with Williams is that he takes over the full-time job at running back, whether he outplays Gordon or the team moves on from the veteran. It is very possible that he opens the year averaging 10-12 touches per game but down the stretch, pushes for 20 touches and becomes a legitimate league-winner. He is an elite target in zero-running back approaches.
The case for Travis Etienne
The dynasty fantasy football community collectively raised their eyebrows when the Jaguars selected Etienne toward the end of the first round. In terms of home-run ability, Etienne is probably the top back in this class, as he recorded 15 runs of at least 15 yards last season. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash and has legitimate game-breaking speed. During his three seasons at Clemson, Etienne rushed for nearly 5,000 yards and 70 touchdowns, while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He also added 102 receptions for 1,155 yards and an additional eight touchdowns through the air.
And that is where Etienne can really shine.
He has received Alvin Kamara comparisons — I’m not ready to go there just yet, it just shows how dynamic Etienne can be in the passing game. With Clemson losing some receivers to the draft last year, Etienne’s target share climbed up to around 12%, with him lining up as a wide receiver around 5% of the time. Meanwhile, his 2.26 yards per route run ranked third among all running backs in college football last year. We have already heard head coach Urban Meyer discuss using Etienne at wide receiver and while he did just that at rookie minicamp, it seems unlikely that the Jaguars drafted a running back in the first round only to play him at receiver. Etienne is going to carry the football 130-140 times but even in a new regime, James Robinson should still be the early-down back. He’s certainly earned that after an historic rookie season. Where Etienne is going to do a lot of damage in fantasy is in the passing game.
Reuniting with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville certainly doesn’t hurt Etienne, as that transition should be fairly seamless for the rookies. We know that Meyer wants to play up tempo and with speed, which means that Etienne certainly fits this offense better than Robinson. So in two-minute drills and when the Jaguars play fast, Etienne should be on the field, while he will certainly be the third-down back. It is very possible that Etienne sees a workload similar to Kamara or Aaron Jones, who are two of the most efficient backs in football but rarely see 20 carries in a game. And that role is valuable, especially if he is hauling in 60-65 passes. Finally, like Williams, there is a chance that Etienne just gives this offense a different dynamic and fits what Meyer wants to do better than Robinson, which could lead to more snaps and touches as the season progresses.
The verdict: It depends!
This one depends on your league. If you are in a full PPR league, it is difficult to not lean Etienne. While Williams is a strong pass-catcher, his ceiling for receptions this year is probably 30-35, while we know for a virtual fact that Etienne is going to catch passes. However, in standard or even half PPR formats, I tend to favor Williams, as he’ll see enough work to warrant a flex spot in your lineup but likely has a better chance of averaging 20 touches per game at any point this season. Both rookie running backs are exciting, however, and if you go receiver/tight end-heavy early in your drafts, Etienne and Williams are elite targets in the middle rounds.
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