Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
The NFL has a ton of very good young running backs.
I mean, just look at the draft class from just last season, which consisted of Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Washington’s Antonio Gibson, who will be discussed in this edition of my ADP series. But the league also added another tremendous young rusher this season in Pittsburgh Steelers’ rookie Najee Harris.
Entering the 2021 season there is a ton of hype surrounding both players, who are being selected as low-end RB1 options in fantasy drafts. Which running back should be on your radar?
The case for Antonio Gibson
This time last season there was a lot of excitement around Gibson. He was getting compared to Christian McCaffrey, largely due to his versatility during his time at Memphis, where he lined up all over the field. Although he was listed as a wide receiver when drafted, Gibson clearly proved that he is a running back during his rookie season. After carrying the football just 33 times in college, Gibson handled 170 carries in 14 games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. Gibson essentially missed three games with turf toe but if you look at the 13 full games he played over the course of the season, he was the RB5 in all of fantasy. The touchdowns were obviously massive, as Gibson scored five touchdowns on 10 carries from inside the five-yard line. And in those aforementioned 13 full games, Gibson was top-five in fantasy points per snap. Again, touchdowns have a lot to do with that, as Washington called run at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL from inside the five-yard line last year (67.4%).
Gibson showed that he can be an every-down player, especially before suffering his toe injury in Week 13. Through Weeks 1-12, Gibson was 10th among all running backs in avoided tackles (30), while also ranking 10th in avoided tackles per attempt (0.22). At 6 feet, 228 pounds with 4.39 speed, Gibson has an elite combination of size and speed, while his ability in the passing game presents him with a ton of versatility. There have been reports out of Washington that the team wants to use Gibson more in the passing game, which would give him top-five upside at running back. He caught a respectable 36 passes in his rookie season but J.D. McKissic cut into his pass-catching ceiling, as the veteran running back led all running backs in both routes (399) and targets (106). Quarterback Alex Smith heavily relied on McKissic, especially on check-downs, as 23.4% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage, the highest mark in the NFL. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, it is possible we see less McKissic, while he will certainly line up at receiver less than he did in 2020 after Washington added Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown in the offseason. Heading into 2021, I fully expect Gibson to finish higher than 39th among running backs in routes run (182).
Meanwhile, despite Washington winning the NFC East a season ago, this was a 7-9 ball club that found themselves trailing in plenty of games, especially during the first half of the season. But we know this is a very, very good defense that should keep them in games, and the offense should also be better. Gibson should find himself in more positive game scripts during his sophomore season and with his snap share most certainly on the rise, he has massive upside in fantasy for 2021.
The case for Najee Harris
Leading up to the NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers were perhaps the most desired landing spot for rookie running backs. And after months of flirting with the idea, the Steelers drafted Harris toward the end of the first round. With James Conner now in Arizona, Harris is set to be the lead back for Pittsburgh, a team that has used one running back in a featured role pretty much every season in the Mike Tomlin area. Over the last three seasons, Conner has averaged 15.7, 15 and 20.7 touches per game, despite battling a ton of injuries, which likely limited his touches. And of course, Le’Veon Bell saw massive volume during his time with the Steelers, averaging 27, 28 and 23 touches per game during his final three seasons. And when he missed time, Pittsburgh even gave DeAngelo Williams 20 touches per contest. Harris, at worst, should warrant 17-20 touches per game, while presenting strong upside in the passing game.
Harris was such a natural pass-catcher during his time at Alabama. He caught 43 passes for 425 yards and four touchdowns last season and showcased a legitimate catch radius at all levels of the field. Right out of the gate, Harris will have every opportunity to catch 50-plus passes, especially if the Steelers continue to pass as much as they have. Of course, part of the reason behind selecting Harris in the first round of the draft is to attempt to fix the issues they have had running the football, so volume is certainly going to be on his side. The offensive line, however, is a major concern, as the Steelers were the 31st-ranked run-blocking unit in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. And they also created the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.17). Harris can create yards after initial contact, as he was second in the nation in yards after contact last season (821), while his 71 missed tackles forced also ranked second. And while the offensive line isn’t everything, it definitely matters, and Harris appears to have one of the worst in all of football.
The verdict: Antonio Gibson
Both of these running backs could easily be the future of the NFL but if you are choosing between the two as a fantasy starter, I’m leaning towards Gibson. While Washington’s offensive line certainly isn’t an elite unit, it is definitely better than Pittsburgh’s, which can honestly be used as a tie-breaker. I’d expect Harris and Gibson to see very similar volume but for Gibson to be more efficient on his touches. RB1 upside is there for both running backs but Gibson gets the nod from me.
